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ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 1 – Kyiv Post

Essential Takeaways

  • Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko ongoing to set informational conditions to resist Russian stress to enter the war in opposition to Ukraine.
  • Russian forces ongoing endeavours to protect in opposition to Ukrainian counteroffensive functions together the Svatove-Kreminna line.
  • Russian forces continued to make incremental gains around Bakhmut and to carry out offensive functions in the Avdiivka-Donetsk Metropolis place.
  • Russian forces ongoing to carry out defensive steps and move staff on the east lender of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast.
  • Russian navy movements in Zaporizhia Oblast may perhaps suggest that Russian forces can not defend crucial places amidst expanding Ukrainian strikes.
  • Russian forces are holding reserves in Crimea to support defensive functions in Zaporizhia Oblast and on the east financial institution of the Dnipro River.
  • The Kremlin’s money pressure proceeds to feed domestic unrest.
  • Proof persists concerning the continuation of partial mobilization in the confront of minimal morale and significant desertion fees among Russian troops.
  • Wagner Team financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin ongoing tries to bolster the Wagner Group’s popularity.
  • Russian profession officers ongoing attempts to combine occupied territories into the Russian money and legal spheres.
  • Russian forces continued to exploit Ukrainian civilians and civilian infrastructure in aid of Russia’s war effort in Ukraine.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko continued to established informational ailments to resist Russian force to enter the war from Ukraine by proclaiming that NATO is making ready to attack Belarus. Lukashenko blamed Ukraine and NATO for a expanding number of provocations in close proximity to the Belarus-Ukrainian border and mentioned that Ukraine is trying to drag NATO forces into the war.[1] Lukashenko mentioned that Belarusian officials managed to discourage a potential adversary from using navy force from Belarus and that NATO is creating up forces and intensifying beat instruction in neighboring international locations.[2] The Belarusian Minister of Protection Viktor Khrenin stated that there is no direct planning for war and that Belarus will only protect its territory.[3] Ukrainian Most important Military services Intelligence Directorate (GUR) consultant Vadym Skibitsky reported that there are no signals of the formation of a strike team on Belarusian territory.[4] Lukashenko and Khrenin possible designed the remarks to bolster what ISW has formerly assessed as an ongoing information and facts operation aimed at correcting Ukrainian forces on the border with Belarus in response to the risk of Belarus coming into the war.[5] Lukashenko and Khrenin also likely centered the information procedure on intended NATO aggression and provocative routines alongside the Belarusian border to propose that the Belarusian navy wants to stay in Belarus to protect versus prospective NATO aggression, and thus established informational problems for resisting Russian force to enter the war in Ukraine. ISW proceeds to assess that Belarusian entry into the Russian war on Ukraine is incredibly unlikely.

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