Month: September 2024

In the South Caucasus, a clash of interests involving Iran, Turkey, and Azerbaijan continues, with Russia aligning itself with Ankara and Baku at the expense of Tehran’s goals.

Turkey and Azerbaijan are pushing to secure control of a key strip of land along Armenia’s southern border with Iran—known as the “Zangezur Corridor”—an extraterritorial route connecting Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan and Turkiye. This corridor would provide Turkey direct access to the Caspian Sea and bolster its influence in the region, raising security concerns. The northern part of Iran is home to Azeri populations, and Tehran fears potential future destabilization by Azerbaijan. Iran has taken these risks seriously, asserting that it is prepared to intervene militarily to prevent such a scenario. As a countermeasure, Tehran is advocating for its own route, passing through Iranian territory.

Russia, increasingly isolated on the world stage, finds itself in need of Ankara’s support—a NATO member—and appears willing to sacrifice Tehran’s interests in this matter.

The Russian Foreign Ministry, through spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, has expressed support for the Turkic project. In response, Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme Council for Economic Coordination, took to the social media platform X, denouncing the stance of Russian officials regarding the Zangezur passage. Rezaei stated, “The behavior of Russian officials concerning the Zangezur Corridor is utterly unacceptable and clearly contradicts their purported friendly ties and strategic relations with Iran. These ambiguities must be resolved.”

Moscow, meanwhile, has shown little regard for Armenia’s interests, seemingly preparing for the eventual ousting of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and his replacement with a more Russia-aligned figure.

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From our perspective, the Russian Foreign Ministry’s statement is not a result of incompetence. Instead, it likely reflects growing frustration within the Kremlin towards Tehran, which is evident in Moscow’s political maneuvers.

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We believe this behavior stems from Russia’s expectation that Iran, as a member of the UN Security Council, should show greater flexibility and involvement in Russian-led influence operations in the Middle East—such as escalating tensions with Israel. This is not the first instance where Moscow has taken actions that could be seen as a deliberate affront to Iran’s leadership. The Kremlin likely assumes that Tehran, feeling trapped by its limited options, will ultimately overlook these slights.

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Russia’s stance on the Zangezur Corridor involves geopolitical interests in the South Caucasus, is influenced by a range of strategic concerns, and Iran’s interests may not align with Moscow’s broader regional objectives.

1. Russia’s Regional Balancing Act: Russia views the South Caucasus as a critical region for its influence, especially in relation to Armenia and Azerbaijan. Russia traditionally tries to maintain a balance between the two, and backing a transport corridor that connects Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave through Armenia (the Zangezur Corridor) may benefit Azerbaijan, Turkey, and others, but not Iran.

2. Alignment with Azerbaijan and Turkiye: Azerbaijan and Turkey have strong economic and geopolitical interests in the Zangezur Corridor. Russia’s relations with Turkiye, especially in balancing NATO’s influence, and its role as a mediator between Armenia and Azerbaijan, could explain why it might prioritize the corridor despite Iranian concerns. Turkey’s growing influence in the region serves as both a rival and a partner for Russia, especially considering energy routes and military presence.

3. Iran’s Concerns: Iran sees the Zangezur Corridor as a potential threat to its influence, since it bypasses Iranian territory and strengthens Azerbaijan’s strategic standing. Tehran is also concerned about increased Turkish influence in the region, which could undermine its interests.

4. Economic and Strategic Interests: The corridor would facilitate easier transit for energy and trade between Azerbaijan and Turkey, making it a strategically valuable route. Russia, seeing an opportunity for economic gain and to strengthen ties with both Azerbaijan and Turkiye, might be less inclined to prioritize Iran’s interests.

Ultimately, Russia’s decision to seemingly disregard Iran’s concerns may be a calculated geopolitical move to strengthen its own influence in the South Caucasus, maintain ties with Turkiye, and secure its role as a dominant player in regional politics.