Day: October 1, 2024

As we head into the final weeks before Election Day, the political campaigns are likely bracing for an unexpected “October Surprise” that could influence voters and impact the results. The term was first coined by William Casey, who served as campaign manager for Ronald Reagan during the 1980 presidential campaign, yet, there have been October election-upending events going back to the 19th century.

What Casey and his predecessors likely never expected was how misinformation—and even disinformation—could be employed to sway voters. Advances in technology like Deep Fakes, an overreliance on social media for news and information, and foreign actors who seek to undermine confidence in our elections have created a perfect storm for such a nightmare scenario.

October Surprises Are Real And So Are Their Consequences

Nearly eight years ago, a video of then-candidate and now-former President Donald Trump surfaced in which he bragged about grabbing women by their genitals. It was an “October surprise” that almost derailed his campaign. Four years later, Trump contracted Covid-19 and was forced to cancel a debate with then-candidate Joe Biden and stop all campaigning.

With just weeks to go until Election Day, there could be a similar surprise—and perhaps even a made-up one. Yet, the consequences could be huge.

“When Hillary Clinton recently warned Kamala Harris about the threat of an October surprise, she knew what she was talking about. Remember James Comey, just 11 days before the 2016 election? That turned out to be a nothing burger—and Comey was rebuked in subsequent investigations for his actions. Or Pizzagate? That, too, turned out to be false,” said Susan Campbell, distinguished lecturer in the College of Arts & Sciences at the University of New Haven.

“This year, voters must be on guard for the biggest threat to a free and fair election: Misinformation. They must steel themselves against lies and distortions, particularly on social media,” added Campbell. “Recently, an army of bots and trolls took to X(witter) to say that the federal government had not done enough to help the people harmed by Hurricane Helene, which was false.”

Misinformation Isn’t New

The spread of misinformation and disinformation during an election season isn’t new and actually dates back to the country’s founding. Smithsonian magazine previously reported how in the 1800 election Thomas Jefferson engaged in a “smear campaign against then-president John Adams,” which “climaxed with an unexpected October broadside.” The late-season attack, carried out by Alexander Hamilton—a critic of Adams and who went on to be Jefferson’s VEEP—remains one of the earliest examples of an effective late-campaign attack on a political rival.

During the 1840 election, rumors circulated that the Whig Party had paid residents of Pennsylvania to cross state lines and cast votes in New York during the 1838 election. There was no basis that this occurred, but people believed it—just as some today believe illegal immigrants can head to the polls to sway the election results.

It was also 100 years before William Casey coined the term “October Surprise” that a disinformation campaign almost impacted the presidential election results.

The New York Truth newspaper published a forged letter on October 20, 1880, allegedly written by Republican candidate James Garfield voicing support for Chinese immigration at a time when many white Americans were opposed to Chinese immigration over fears that they were stealing jobs from American workers. In truth, both campaigns were in favor of immigration restrictions. Garfield went on to win the election by a narrow margin, but there has been speculation if the forged letter was released a little earlier the situation could have been different.

Misinformation/disinformation has clearly existed for a while, but social media could impact how it reaches the masses.

“The World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report highlights that the primary risk for 2024 is the use of misinformation and disinformation by malicious actors to disrupt society and further polarize communities,” warned

Craig Barkacs, professor of business law and ethics in the MBA programs at the Knauss School of Business at the University of San Diego.

Micro Surprises Could Take Shape

The October surprise may no longer be a single event or revelation. We could already see many at work, with misinformation already circulating about Senator JD Vance and his couch, and Governor Tim Walz supporting post-birth abortions.

But users of social media should be on guard for even more misinformation and disinformation in the coming weeks.

“There may be several October surprises in the works,” said Barkacs. “For most individuals, these may not make a significant difference as their opinions are already formed. For a small percentage, however, these surprises could be pivotal. The presidential elections of 2016 and 2020 illustrate how a tiny fraction of votes in crucial swing states can determine the outcome.”

Artificial intelligence may offer the ability to micro-target voters on social media while being strategically timed and aimed at a particular audience to help alter the results of the election.

“These micro-targeted voters are likely to be low-information voters, who are more susceptible to misinformation. These individuals, often unaware of the broader context, are the first to believe and spread unfounded stories,” Barkacs continued. “Research indicates that micro-targeting specific groups can influence voting behavior. We should be concerned about just what impact a deviously concocted October surprise could have on the outcome of the election.”

Voters Need To Be Informed

The most effective way to combat misinformation and disinformation is to ensure that we have a well-informed electorate, and that could users offering direct responses to the more outlandish commentary spread on the social networks.

“This go-round, there can be no passivity,” suggested Campbell. “For the good of the election, voters must find and amplify the truth—to, in effect, shout down the trolls.”

‘Significant escalation’: Jim Sciutto reacts to WH official’s claim Iran preparing missile attack on Israel

01:49

– Source:
CNN

CNN
 — 

Missiles have been launched from Iran toward Israel and sirens are sounding across the country, according to a statement from Israel’s military.

CNN teams on the ground in multiple locations across Israel have observed dozens of missiles flying above them. Some have been intercepted by Israel’s air defenses, although it is not clear how many.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it targeted Israel in response to the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and others, according to Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency.

After the barrage of missiles was launched, the Iranian mission to the United Nations said that Tehran carried out a response to “the terrorist acts of the Zionist regime.”

The mission said on X that if Israel should “dare to respond or commit further acts of malevolence, a subsequent and crushing response will ensue.”

Earlier on Tuesday the White House warned that Iran was poised to launch a ballistic missile attack on Israel soon, instantly ratcheting up fears of all-out war in the region.

People in Tel Aviv and other cities have been told to stay near shelters or other protected areas and the atmosphere on the streets was noticeably tense.

In a statement released mid-morning, the White House said it had “indications that Iran is preparing to imminently launch a ballistic missile attack against Israel,” adding the United States was “actively supporting defensive preparations to defend Israel against this attack.”

“A direct military attack from Iran against Israel will carry severe consequences for Iran,” a senior White House official said in a statement.

Israel assessed that Iran was likely to attack three Israeli air bases and an intelligence base located just north of Tel Aviv, a person briefed on the matter said.

The intelligence base in Glilot was evacuated Tuesday afternoon, the person said, and the Israeli military has put contingency plans for the safety of personnel at those bases into effect.

The US warned Israel that an attack would likely come within the next 12 hours, the person said.

An Israeli source told CNN shortly after the White House’s warning that intense diplomacy is happening behind the scenes.

President Joe Biden convened a meeting with Vice President Kamala Harris and top national security officials Tuesday “to discuss Iranian plans to imminently launch a significant ballistic missile attack against Israel,” according to White House spokesperson Emilie Simons.

Simons added, “They reviewed the status of US preparations to help Israel defend against attacks and protect US personnel.”

After a year of heightened tensions between Israel and Iran’s proxies in the region — including Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen — an attack by Iran toward Israel could further tip the region toward full-scale conflict.

US and Arab diplomats are already concerned about what might happen after Iran’s expected attack, including the scale of Israel’s response. One major concern on their mind is Israel possibly using a forthcoming Iranian strike to respond by striking inside Iran.

“There is no place in Iran that the long arm of Israel cannot reach, and that’s true of the entire Middle East,” Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said during his speech at the United Nations last week.

The US was earlier prepared to do whatever it can to help Israel intercept anything Iran directed its way, similar to how the US offered its assistance in April, when Iran launched a wave of drones and missiles towards Israel — the vast majority of which were successfully intercepted, a US official said.

The US had anticipated that the attack from Iran against Israel could be similar in scope and scale to the one in April, a US official told CNN.

The US warned Israel early Tuesday morning ET (midday Israel time) that Iran was poised to launch an attack, according to a person familiar with the matter. The warning between the two countries came several hours before the White House announced publicly that it had indications Iran was preparing an attack.

The official said Iran has been postured to move quickly in an attack. After the onslaught of drones and missiles fired toward Israel in April, many of Iran’s assets remained in position.

Tensions between Israel and Iran have ratcheted up significantly in recent weeks as Israel has stepped up its efforts against Hezbollah, an Iran-backed militant group, and Israel on Monday launched a ground operation in southern Lebanon.

Netanyahu asked Israelis to “stand together” and keep following the frontline commands as fears of an imminent attack from Iran grow.

Netanyahu said Israel is in the throes of a “campaign against Iran’s axis of evil” and made specific demands from the Israeli public.

“What I ask of you is two things: One – to strictly obey the directives of the frontline command, it saves lives. And second – to stand together,” Netanyahu said in a statement.

The United States is “tracking events in the Middle East very closely” and “is committed to Israel’s defense,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Tuesday.

“We’re watching developments, as I said, very carefully at this moment,” Blinken said in brief remarks alongside his Moroccan counterpart. Blinken did not make any specific reference to Iran or the potential attack.

The US Embassy in Israel directed all US government personnel and family members “to shelter in place until further notice” because of “the current security situation,” it said in a security alert Tuesday.

“This is provided for your information as you make your own security plans,” the alert said, without mentioning the specific warnings of an imminent attack from Iran.

CNN’s Pauline Lockwood and Niamh Kennedy contributed reporting.

This story has been updated with additional developments.