Day: January 7, 2025

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President-elect Donald Trump on Tuesday openly mused about using U.S. military might to retake the Panama Canal and to claim Greenland, while threatening to use economic pressure to force 40 million Canadians into seeing their country demoted to an American state. He also called for changing the name of The Gulf of Mexico to The Gulf of America, and, just for good measure, casually suggested NATO member states set aside 5% of their economies for defense spending, a sharp jump from the current 2% non-binding guideline.

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Only on the globe of Trump’s imagination does this Godzilla-esque trampling of sovereignty make any rational sense. It’s like the incoming Leader of the Free World is treating the map like a real-life Monopoly board to be dominated. Trump’s boasts may be as reliable as play money, but that does not mean the world beyond his gilded Florida club can treat his pronouncements as musings meant to be ignored.

Any of the wide-ranging comments on their own should be enough to give any U.S. ally indigestion, but packaged together as part of a bravado-driven posturing just weeks before he returns to power demands nothing short of a complete rethinking about how to approach the second Trump era. It is obvious that every assumption of global partnerships is now up for review and Trump is finding his own satisfaction in testing the sturdiness of each and every one of them.

Speaking to reporters at his Florida club, Trump seemed ever as certain about his influence. He even took credit for Meta’s announcement hours earlier that the social media giant would stop fact-checking posts, a move he said was “probably” in response to past threats he made against the company and its founder, Mark Zuckerberg. 

Or witness Trump’s rant about the Panama Canal, a key shipping lane between the Atlantic and the Pacific that the United States opened in 1914 and transferred fully to a Panamanian transportation authority in 1999. “Jimmy Carter gave it to them for $1 and they were supposed to treat us well. I thought it was a terrible thing to do,” Trump said just hours before the 39th President’s body was due to arrive in Washington ahead of his state funeral on Thursday.

Typically light on details, Trump nevertheless said he wanted to have control over the 51-mile piece of infrastructure in Panama. Asked if he would rule out using the military to accomplish that, he refused. “I’m not going to commit to that,” he said. “It might be that you’ll have to do something. The Panama Canal is vital to our country.” (Of note: Panama does not have a standing army.)

The President-elect sounded similarly expansionist when it came to Greenland, an autonomous part of Denmark that Trump sought to claim during his first term. Trump said Tuesday that he would “tariff Denmark at a very high level” if it does not cede Greenland to the United States. The Arctic island has its own Prime Minister and parliament, but its national security interests are handled by Copenhagen. Greenland is represented in Washington at the Danish Embassy.

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said in an interview Tuesday that the island is still not for sale. His comments came as Donald Trump Jr. and incoming White House personnel chief Sergio Gor arrived in Greenland on Tuesday for what can only be imagined as next-level trolling.

It was roughly the same grace Trump offered Canada, where Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his sudden exit as his party’s leader with his vacating of 24 Sussex to follow. Trump has long needled the progressive darling of Canada and suggests that perhaps residents of the U.S. neighbor to the north would find a home as an annexed 51st state. On Tuesday, Trump even boosted hockey legend Wayne Gretzky to replace Trudeau. In true style, Trump suggested Gretzky would be a great leader of his fellow Canadians as their Governor, not necessarily a P.M. of an independent nation.

This style of throwing around America’s might is expected from the Trump orbit. Heck, apropos of nothing, Trump said he would be changing the name of the body of water bordering Texas to Florida, plus Mexico and Cuba, to The Gulf of America. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, a primo Trump enabler in the House, quickly sent out notice that she was preparing renaming legislation as the President-elect wished.

Finally, Trump sought to double the kitty available to NATO with the pronouncement that each country’s baseline for defense spending should be bumped to 5% of its gross domestic product. Trump has long confused the 2% suggestion as a dues-based system among the 32 member states. No country—including the United States—currently hits spending at 5%; Poland tops the list at 3.9% of GDP on defense spending and the U.S. slice hits roughly 3.5%. Trump’s obsession with perceived free-loading alliance members was a standard riff during his first term and he seems ready to bully nominal allies into spending even more on the joint project designed after World War II to keep Soviet—and now Russian—aggression in check. (Or, if Trump is to be believed, his own country. Greenland falls under Denmark’s NATO membership, which means NATO nations could be obligated to fight one of its charter members if Trump moved ahead with his military spasm.)

Which brings us to this uncomfortable reality: the objects of Trump’s ire are more than the casual U.S. ally. Denmark and the United States have long been reliable partners, with a history of working together in conflicts in Bosnia and Herzegovina, in Afghanistan and Iraq. Panama is a lynchpin to U.S. trade, with American ships accounting for roughly three-quarters of its canal traffic; about 40% of all U.S. container ships make their way through the channel. Canada and the United States share the longest border between any two countries on the planet, its economies and cultures are deeply enmeshed, and the relationship between Washington and Ottawa is one of the most durable in the hemisphere. Trump largely got his way on NATO spending in his first term, yet is continuing to hector comrades in arms to spend even more on an alliance he isn’t exactly known to champion.

So to see the incoming President pick such self-defeating fights with allies is as confounding as it is numbing. Trump’s apologists say the bluster is just part of the package, and insist he is more substantive when the TV cameras are not present. Still, the signal beaming out of Florida on Tuesday was sprayed globally, and it would be mighty irresponsible for allies sitting in foreign ministries to ignore them. For some, the actions taken by Meta make sense: just give the bully what he wants and hope he moves to harass someone else.

The United States—and, here, Trump is the United States when it comes to foreign dealings—can effectively browbeat most nations to heel. The flex has a long history of accidental shrapnel and long-bruised feelings, but it works at least for a while. It doesn’t help America’s image as a top-down dictator in global matters, but sometimes such niceties prove to be a drag. Among allies, a phone call will usually do, but here Trump wants a public showing of force.

But Trump is not looking to harangue second-tier capitals with third-tier interests. He is going straight at some of the United States’ most reliable and critical friends. Trump may think of Greenland as an under-leveraged piece of real estate with a trove of rare natural resources buried under the melting piles of ice, but the strategic thinkers heading back into the National Security Council see it as a vital defense bulwark. After all, a U.S. base there is its northernmost outpost and uses its position exactly between Moscow and New York as a missile defense monitor. Similarly, Panama and Canada alike are major players in the U.S. trade ecosystem. NATO is one of the reasons Vladimir Putin’s ambitions to restore the Russian Empire have stayed (mostly) in check.

Unlike his first ascent in 2017, Trump now has a pretty fulsome understanding of the real power he has and how to wield it. How he is so far choosing to do so, just shy of two weeks from moving back into the White House, is as telling as it is maddening. With all that is stacked on Trump’s to-do list, picking fights with friends seems like an indulgent distraction that will soon grow tiresome. And in the meantime, he is fraying relationships with allies he hopes will just pull a Meta and bend to his whims.

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The founder of Chinese tech conglomerate Tencent—which the Pentagon blacklisted this week over its links to the Chinese military—serves on a prestigious Yale University advisory board and has quietly donated millions of dollars to other Ivy League schools.

Ma Huateng, the second-richest person in China, has served since 2015 on the Yale Center Beijing advisory board, which the Connecticut-based university uses to “form new partnerships with organizations in China.” Ma and Tencent have donated millions of dollars to Yale, MIT, Cornell, Columbia, and Princeton, the Washington Free Beacon has reported.

Those relationships could face new scrutiny after the Pentagon designated Tencent one of several “Chinese military companies” operating in the United States. Tencent, which owns the popular social media app WeChat, has faced scrutiny for years for helping the Chinese Communist Party censor China’s internet and for its central involvement in China’s ambitious plan to dominate the AI industry by 2030.

Sen. Marco Rubio (R., Fla.), President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee for secretary of state, has accused Tencent of engaging in “espionage and censorship” for the Chinese Communist Party and noted that Ma is a member of the CCP. But the Pentagon blacklist is the first time the American government has formally rebuked Tencent—a black eye for the Chinese company that could set the stage for future economic penalties.

Tencent’s shares tumbled 8 percent following Monday’s news. The company has disputed the blacklist, saying it “is not a military company or suppler.”

The relationships with Ma and Tencent could pose challenges for the Ivy League universities, which have faced turmoil over the past year for their tepid responses to anti-Semitic activity on their campuses. And it’s an early test for Yale president Maurie McInnis, who took office in July 2024. Yale has recently faced scrutiny over its foreign funding sources. The school has failed to disclose $15 million in funding from Qatar, the oil-rich Gulf nation that harbors Hamas, the Free Beacon reported.

Ma, who goes by the nickname “Pony Ma,” has used his connections at Yale and other Ivy League schools to advance his company’s ambitions. He attended at least two events hosted by the Yale Center Beijing, and the tech titan met with the dean of Yale’s School of Management in 2017 and 2018 to discuss future “opportunities for collaboration,” according to the school’s annual reports.

Yale Center Beijing has hosted other Tencent executives and Chinese government officials to discuss the future of AI, including at a 2018 event entitled “Artificial Intelligence Development and Policy in the United States and China.” According to a 2021 Pentagon report, China plans to use technology developed by the firm for military and commercial purposes.

Tencent is a “national security risk hiding in plain sight,” according to Craig Singleton, a senior China fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Singleton said Tencent, which Ma founded in 1998, serves as an “intelligence gateway” for Chinese intelligence agencies. And its investments in sensitive technology startups in the United States have “amplif[ied] concerns over its potential to compromise critical U.S. sectors and national security,” according to Singleton.

Ma served on the board of the Cornell China Center until last September, according to archived versions of the school’s website. He has used those Cornell connections to advance Tencent’s AI initiatives, including at a 2017 event about the future of AI.

Ma has donated at least $5 million to Princeton and $5 million to MIT through his personal charity, the Ma Huateng Foundation. The Ma Huateng Foundation gave $5 million in grants in 2017 to fund the Princeton Center on Contemporary China’s China Impact Project, which studies how American news media have shaped public perception of China. Tencent’s charity donated $900,000 to Columbia University in 2017.

The Ma Huateng Foundation has also donated undisclosed amounts to Yale and Cornell. Neither the foundation nor the universities did not respond to requests for comment.

The post The Pentagon Says Tech Giant Tencent Is a Chinese Military Company. Its Founder Helps Yale ‘Form New Partnerships’ in China. appeared first on .

While many commentators are already speculating over the possibility of Ukraine peace talks in the coming months, there is actually very little to indicate that Russian President Vladimir Putin is interested in a negotiated settlement. Ukrainian military commanders are certainly not counting on any pause in hostilities, and are instead preparing for a fourth year of Europe’s largest war since World War II.

Russia held the battlefield initiative throughout 2024, and managed to make gains at various points along the approximately one thousand kilometer front lines of the war. While Moscow was unable to secure any landmark successes, the relatively minor advances of the past year marked a shift from the largely static front lines in 2023. If the underlying causes of this Russian progress are not addressed, Putin’s invading army may be able to achieve a more decisive breakthrough in the coming year.

Russia’s gains in 2024 owed much to tactical and technological adaptations implemented since the early stages of the war. At the same time, Moscow also clearly benefited from a range of problems bedeviling the Ukrainian military, with troop shortages, ineffective leadership, and supply uncertainties at the very top of the list. Ukraine’s survival as a state may now depend on the country’s ability to resolve these issues in the coming months.

As the world watches the Russian invasion of Ukraine unfold, UkraineAlert delivers the best Atlantic Council expert insight and analysis on Ukraine twice a week directly to your inbox.

Ukraine began the war in February 2022 with a large number of highly capable soldiers who had gained valuable experience during the previous eight years of sporadic fighting against Kremlin forces in eastern Ukraine. These seasoned troops played a key role in Ukraine’s early successes, adopting an often innovative approach to the war that helped cancel out Russia’s overwhelming advantages in terms of firepower.

Russia has countered Ukraine’s greater battlefield creativity by relying increasingly on strength in numbers. In September 2022, Putin announced Russia’s first mobilization since World War II. This dramatically increased the number of Russian troops in Ukraine and set the stage for the human wave tactics that have made Moscow’s subsequent advances possible.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s heavy losses since 2022 have robbed multiple army units of their most seasoned members. In many cases, this has led to a sharp decline in battlefield performance. Large numbers of promising young Ukrainian officers who should have risen through the ranks to senior command positions have instead been killed, wounded, or simply exhausted by almost three years of relentless combat.

The Ukrainian military is now facing growing challenges recruiting fresh troops to replenish its depleted ranks. This is due in part to the demoralizing impact of consistently high casualty rates and the lack of demobilization prospects while hostilities continue. It also reflects declining confidence in the quality of Ukraine’s military leaders and concerns over consistent shortages in both weapons and ammunition.

Revisions to Ukraine’s mobilization regulations introduced in spring 2024 failed to adequately address the underlying causes of this mounting manpower shortage. Instead, the past year witnessed record levels of desertion that have further undermined Ukraine’s already weakening defenses. Unless measures can be taken to reverse this trend, the consequences for Ukraine could be disastrous.

The increasingly acute challenges facing the Ukrainian army in terms of both quantity and quality demand a combined response from Ukraine and its allies. This must include improved training for infantry and officers, measures to root our ineffective commanders and enhance coordination between units, and greatly increased flows of military supplies from the international coalition backing the Ukrainian war effort.

This will require greater cooperation and an end to the current finger-pointing between Ukraine and the country’s partners. In recent months, officials in Kyiv have sought pin their problems on a lack of sufficient international military aid, while allies including the US have begun questioning Ukraine’s mobilization strategy and calling for a reduction in the age of military recruits. This blame game does little to address the mounting crisis within the Ukrainian military.

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With Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine set to pass the three-year mark next month, it is clear that the policies adopted in Kyiv and other Western capitals since 2022 are no longer working. Ukraine’s manpower problems cannot be overcome via reliance on patriotic sentiment and superior combat experience alone. A more systematic approach to training and equipping new troops is clearly necessary, and must be accompanied by measures to improve leadership and accountability within the Ukrainian military.

Likewise, piecemeal deliveries of weapons will not convince Russia to end the invasion. The extended debates and regular delays that have characterized international military support for Ukraine since 2022 have done much to persuade Putin that he can ultimately outlast the West.

The Kremlin dictator is facing his own manpower issues amid catastrophic Russian losses. However, he can call upon a population more than four times the size of Ukraine’s and can also afford to attract volunteers with large cash incentives. The recent addition of more than ten thousand North Korean troops has further eased the pressure on Russia’s army recruiters.

If Ukraine’s partners really wish to change the mood in Moscow, they must make a far more long-term commitment to providing Kyiv with military support and demonstrate their resolve to defeating Russia on the battlefield. Wars of attrition like the current Russo-Ukrainian War are won and lost through the deployment of superior resources. On paper, the West has the collective wealth and technological capabilities to completely overwhelm Russia. However, almost three years since the start of the full-scale invasion, Western support for Ukraine remains hampered by talk of compromise and fear of escalation. Putin interprets this as weakness and is emboldened.

Ukraine is currently in a race against time to address a number of key issues that threaten to undermine the country’s war effort and hand Putin an historic victory in 2025. Supporting Kyiv’s efforts is a matter of urgency for European leaders and should also be high on the list of priorities for the incoming Trump administration. Donald Trump has vowed to end the war, but he will likely find that Putin is unwilling to enter into talks unless the United States can undermine his confidence in victory and dramatically strengthen Ukraine’s negotiating position.

Mykola Bielieskov is a research fellow at the National Institute for Strategic Studies and a senior analyst at Ukrainian NGO “Come Back Alive.” The views expressed in this article are the author’s personal position and do not reflect the opinions or views of NISS or Come Back Alive.

Further reading

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Jan 2, 2025

Missiles, AI, and drone swarms: Ukraine’s 2025 defense tech priorities

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Ukrainian defense tech companies will be focusing on domestic missile production, drone swarms, and AI technologies in 2025 as Ukraine seeks to remain one step ahead of Russia in the race to innovate, writes Nataliia Kushnerska.

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Dec 19, 2024

Five things Russia’s invasion has taught the world about Ukraine

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Vladimir Putin’s brutal invasion of Ukraine has thrust the country into the global spotlight and transformed international perceptions of Ukraine in ways that will resonate for decades to come, writes Peter Dickinson.

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Disinformation

UkraineAlert
Jan 2, 2025

Lithuania prioritizes defense spending amid growing Russian threat

By
Agnia Grigas

Lithuania’s new government is planning to increase defense spending as the Baltic nation faces up to the growing threat posed by Putin’s Russia amid uncertainty over the US role in European security, writes Agnia Grigas.

Conflict
Defense Industry

The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters.

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The post Putin begins 2025 confident of victory as war of attrition takes toll on Ukraine appeared first on Atlantic Council.

The newly installed House, led by Speaker Mike Johnson (R., La.), is set to vote Thursday on legislation that would sanction the International Criminal Court (ICC) and its chief prosecutor, Karim Khan, over efforts to arrest Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, according to lawmakers and congressional sources briefed on the matter.

The legislation first passed the House in June with support from Republicans and 42 Democrats, but then-Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer (D., N.Y.) did not bring it to the floor of the upper chamber for a vote. Its resurgence comes weeks after top Republicans—both in Congress and in the incoming White House—pledged to sanction the ICC and erode its international legitimacy upon taking power in the new year.

While President-elect Donald Trump could sanction the ICC on his own via executive order, a subsequent administration could then pull the sanctions. Should Congress pass the Illegitimate Court Counteraction Act, a future president could not unilaterally revoke the measure. With Republicans in control of 53 Senate seats, 7 Democrats would need to back the bill to clear the upper chamber’s 60-vote threshold. The measure is one of the first bills expected to hit the Senate floor following Trump’s Jan. 20 inauguration, according to Punchbowl News.

“While I have full confidence that President Trump will stand for Israel with the strength and moral clarity that Biden has sorely lacked, this bill will ensure that no future administration after him will be able to give the ICC a free pass to attack our allies like this,” Rep. Chip Roy (R., Texas), who first introduced the ICC sanctions bill in June, told the Washington Free Beacon.

“The ICC is an illegitimate body that has no business interfering with our sovereignty or that of our allies,” he continued. “If we do not check this rogue, leftist ‘court’ now, we can rest assured that our military leadership and troops will be the next targets of its political attacks.”

In addition to Roy, Johnson and the newly elected chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Rep. Brian Mast (R., Fla.), back the sanctions measure, signaling that pro-Israel initiatives are an early priority for the new GOP majority.

“The House will not tolerate rogue actors who circumvent international law to attack Israel and threaten America. We won’t do it,” Johnson said during a Tuesday press conference. The ICC bill was notably included in the House rules package passed last week, another sign that lawmakers intend to quickly move the legislation before Trump takes office.

The incoming administration is already crafting a series of executive orders that would complement the House measure, including “devastating” sanctions on individual ICC prosecutors, judges, and the institution at large. Some of these orders could be unveiled as soon as Jan. 21, according to Israeli reports, and are meant to pressure the ICC into rescinding its arrest warrants for Netanyahu and former Israeli defense minister Yoav Gallant.

Trump’s team is also working to secure assurances from U.S. allies that they will not comply with the ICC’s arrest warrants, effectively blunting their international impact.

Both Israel and the United States do not recognize the ICC’s jurisdiction, but the arrest warrants issued last year have made it difficult for Israeli leaders to freely travel the globe. The United Kingdom, for instance, has said it would arrest Netanyahu if he traveled there. Poland said it would arrest Netanyahu if he attended the 80th anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz.

The ICC’s critics, including Netanyahu and those in Congress, say the court is motivated by a deep anti-Israel bias that has plagued the institution for years. Its chief prosecutor, Khan, has accused Israel of genocide and attempted to equate Israel’s defensive actions in Gaza with those of the Hamas terrorists. Khan, meanwhile, is facing a separate inquiry into charges he sexually harassed a female colleague.

For the GOP’s new class of leaders, the ICC sanctions bill is seen as one of the first opportunities to shepherd a pro-Israel foreign policy that took a backseat during President Joe Biden’s term in office.

“As we head into the Trump administration, House Republicans are reaffirming our unwavering commitment to supporting our allies and putting America First,” Rep. Claudia Tenney (R., N.Y.), one of the bill’s early backers, told the Free Beacon. “The House must immediately pass the Illegitimate Court Counteraction Act, which imposes sanctions on ICC officials actively working to undermine our allies, or it may target American citizens next.”

Mast, the Foreign Affairs Committee’s new chairman, expressed a similar sentiment, saying that if the court is permitted to target Israel then America will be next.

“Our bill sends a clear message to the International Criminal Court,” Mast said. “We may not recognize you, but you sure as hell will recognize what happens when you target America or its allies.”

The post ‘Illegitimate Body’: House Set To Pass Sanctions on Anti-Israel ICC This Week appeared first on .

New York City’s economy has new records in employment and labor force participation, according to the city Economic Development Corporation’s (NYCEDC) inaugural “State of the Economy” report.

According to the report released Tuesday, the city boasts a record-high average of 4,151,400 private sector jobs and a labor force participation rate of 62.8% as of September 2024.

The report says this resurgence has made New York City a prime destination for talent, with nearly half a million recent college graduates choosing to call it home since 2021.

“Not only are restaurants and nightlife a major employer, but they create a culture and vibrancy that helps NYC attract and retain people to work in different sectors across our economy,” Andrew Rigie, executive director of NYC Hospitality Alliance, told amNewYork Metro.

The findings underscore the city’s ongoing transformation as a hub for innovation, particularly in high-growth sectors such as technology, life sciences, and the rapidly emerging field of artificial intelligence. 

“The facts and figures say it loud and clear: New York City’s economy is back and better than ever,” Mayor Eric Adams said.

He highlighted the city’s achievements, stating that despite ongoing challenges such as housing affordability and income inequality, the trajectory is one of shared economic prosperity across all boroughs.

“While today we celebrate, tomorrow we continue the work of ensuring that our shared economic prosperity reaches every zip code across the five boroughs and of closing the racial unemployment gaps that, for too long, have persisted within our city,” he added.

The report also details the ongoing AI transformation, with New York identified as the applied AI capital of the world. Currently housing over 2,000 AI startups and a workforce of 40,000 skilled workers, NYCEDC projects that for every job displaced by AI, four to ten could be augmented, showcasing the technology’s potential to create rather than just eliminate jobs.

Additionally, signs of recovery are apparent in the commercial real estate sector. Recent data indicates that office vacancy rates in the metro area are starting to stabilize, with many workers adopting an in-office schedule of three days per week.

Notably, Manhattan’s premium office spaces are experiencing increased demand, as occupancy in trophy buildings has surged by 19% over the past five years.

Tourism is on the rebound as well. With nearly 65 million visitors arriving in 2024—a marked increase of 3.5% from the previous year—New York City is well-positioned to reclaim its status as a global tourism beacon following the pandemic’s turmoil.

“New York City’s economy has hit historic milestones this year with higher levels of employment and labor force participation than we’ve seen in the City’s history. New York City is the leading destination for college graduates by a long shot, and we continue to build a diverse economy powered by high growth high wage sectors,” said Andrew Kimball, president and CEO of NYCEDC. “Yet, large challenges remain, particularly in terms of housing and economic equality.”

The report does not shy away from highlighting persistent economic challenges like housing affordability which continues to be a pressing issue, with the 2023 rental vacancy rate at a multi-decade low of 1.4%. The city’s leadership is pursuing proactive policies aimed at creating additional housing units to compensate for job growth that has outpaced housing availability.

Moreover, the report brings attention to racial disparities in employment, noting that while Black and Latino unemployment rates have improved since their pandemic peaks, they remain disproportionately high compared to their white counterparts.