The first half of 2025 could witness significant political upheaval in Slovakia, with Prime Minister Robert Fico’s government facing a high likelihood of collapse. Economic turmoil, worsening relations with Washington, and friction between Slovakia and the European Union are compounding challenges for Bratislava.
A Vote of No Confidence on the Horizon
Opposition parties, including Progressive Slovakia, For the People, the Christian Democratic Movement, and Freedom and Solidarity, are gearing up to challenge Fico’s leadership. They accuse him of neglecting domestic issues while cozying up to authoritarian regimes, particularly Moscow.
Michal Šimečka, leader of Progressive Slovakia, has lambasted Fico for abandoning his duties to engage in what he calls “luxurious overtures to authoritarian leaders.” According to Šimečka, Fico’s recent trip to Moscow was not merely a diplomatic gesture but a signal of a shift in Slovakia’s foreign policy toward a pro-Russian alignment—a move he believes undermines the EU’s collective stance.
The Moscow Visit: A Diplomatic Gamble or a Corruption Scandal?
On December 22, 2024, Fico met with Vladimir Putin in Moscow, citing the need to discuss Russian gas transit to Europe amid uncertainty following Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s warnings about potential disruptions. The visit, however, raised eyebrows given Slovakia’s lack of a direct border with Russia and the ongoing war in Ukraine. Critics argue that the trip was less about diplomacy and more about personal political gains.
Slovakia remains one of the few EU nations reliant on Russian energy, ignoring EU mandates to diversify gas supplies adopted three years ago. This dependency, coupled with Fico’s overtures to Moscow, has fueled speculation that Bratislava seeks preferential treatment from the Kremlin, further isolating Slovakia within the EU.
Domestic Struggles and a Weak Coalition
Slovakia’s political landscape is marked by deep vulnerabilities. The government’s inability to elect a parliamentary speaker reflects the coalition’s fragility. Meanwhile, Fico faces mounting criticism over high inflation, underfunded healthcare, and inadequate infrastructure. These issues have eroded public trust, leaving him increasingly reliant on Slovakia’s pro-Russian electorate.
Economic and Geopolitical Risks
Fico’s potential sabotage of EU defense spending programs to appeal to his base could strain Slovakia’s relations with NATO and increase the burden on allies like the U.S. and Germany. This tactic, aimed at shoring up domestic support, risks undermining European defense capabilities and the continent’s collective security.
The Shadow of U.S. Pressure
Following the U.S. presidential inauguration in 2025, Fico’s government may come under intense scrutiny from the Trump administration, particularly if its policies hinder American plans to expand LNG exports to Europe.
Russia’s Strategic Interests
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Moscow stands to benefit from the chaos surrounding Fico’s tenure. By fostering dependence among Central and Eastern European governments, the Kremlin seeks to destabilize the EU and NATO from within, using figures like Fico to block EU expansion into the Balkans and Eastern Europe.
Outlook: A Precarious Future
Slovakia’s political and economic instability, compounded by Fico’s controversial policies, could lead to early elections. Opposition parties are likely to rally around Fico’s mismanagement, while former ally Peter Pellegrini is expected to distance himself from Fico’s toxic legacy. As the nation grapples with inflation, stagnating wages, and a crumbling healthcare system, Fico’s chances of political survival appear increasingly slim.
The stakes are high, not just for Slovakia but for the broader European order, as Russia continues to exploit vulnerabilities in its bid to disrupt the EU and NATO from within.
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