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As 2025 begins, pessimism about Ukraine’s fate hangs in the air and the stench of appeasement on the wind. I find myself confused as to why, for it should be clear that the conflict has so far been an ignominious failure for President Vladimir Putin.
Unable to achieve the objective of subjugating his far smaller neighbour, he has instead inflicted enormous suffering on his own country and devastated its economy while undermining Russian prestige and strategic influence around the world.
Lest we forget that what was planned as a three-day “special operation” has turned into a three-year nightmare. Russia has made only limited territorial gains and has been incapable of capturing even the whole of Donetsk Oblast in the east. Last year’s grand offensive to establish a buffer zone at Kharkiv to protect Russian territory only seized a few kilometres along the border. Missile attacks aimed at plunging Ukraine into near-constant cold and darkness have clearly failed.
Meanwhile Putin has lost control of parts of Kursk Oblast to Ukrainian forces in the first invasion of Russian territory since the Second World War, failing to retake it despite enlisting North Korea as an ally in the conflict. Putin’s much-vaunted air defences have proven unable to halt Ukrainian strikes on airfields, oil depots and ammunition warehouses inside Russia. Even the capital, Moscow, has been penetrated by locally-produced Ukrainian explosive drones. The Russian navy has been humiliated, losing control of the Black Sea and unable to strangle Ukraine’s grain exports. Upwards of 15 of its ships have been sunk by sea drones with many more damaged and the remainder of the fleet forced to retreat from the Crimean peninsula and the shores of Ukraine.
The human toll from Putin’s sclerotic campaign has also been immense. Ukraine estimates that Russian forces sustained 427,000 casualties in 2024 alone. The Institute for the Study of War, a US think tank, assesses that during the same period Russia seized 4,168 square kilometres; that means each square kilometre captured has cost more than 100 casualties.
The financial outlay on those casualties, with 6 per cent of the entire federal budget promised to support the wounded and compensate the families of the dead, is just one contributor to Russia’s increasingly precarious economy. Interest rates have hit 23 per cent with inflation at 9 per cent, driven by an unsustainable war economy badly damaged by global sanctions. The Russian financial system may not be on the verge of collapse, but no matter how much the Kremlin talks up its prospects, long-term economic stagnation seems inevitable even if the conflict ends in 2025.
Further afield, the war has severely damaged Russian credibility in the Middle East. Putin’s intervention in the Syrian civil war in 2015 kept Assad in power. But the scaling back of his forces there to stoke the meat grinder in Ukraine together with the withdrawal in 2023 of the Wagner mercenary force – another casualty of the war – meant he was unable to save the dictator at the end of last year. Whether or not Moscow retains its bases in Syria, its reputation as a tough and dependable ally compared to the vacillating West will have been badly ruptured. Added to that, Russia’s weakness in Syria has inflicted damage, perhaps irreparable, on its chief regional accomplice and arms supplier, Iran. If Syria becomes a support base for jihadists set on terrorism inside Russia – a distinct possibility – it could be disastrous.
Contrary to Putin’s dream of resurrecting a Russian empire, he has risked turning the country into a dependency of the Chinese. Western sanctions have already made Russia more reliant on China for economic support and commerce than ever before. As Moscow’s economic situation worsens, the trade inequity will only deepen. Russia also depends on the Chinese supply of dual-use technology that is essential for its war production and North Korea would not have sent 10,000 troops to help fight Putin’s war without a green light from Xi Jinping. The conditions are being set for Moscow’s subordination to Beijing.
Despite Russia’s woes, we should not make the mistake of believing that Ukraine and the West are near victory in this conflict. Unfortunately the opportunity for that was lost at least two years ago by a combination of lack of resolve in Europe and fear of escalation in the US, which denied Ukraine the weapons it needed to drive Russia back. Ukraine has been unable to halt the steady Russian advance and is not going to be able to do so without substantially increased support, which is unlikely to come. Kyiv’s allies have become increasingly war-weary since the failed counter-offensive in 2023 and many are resigned to a peace deal. Recent comments by President Zelensky suggest he too is now prepared for that, even if it means territorial concessions.
Putin is playing hardball, rejecting a reported proposal by the US president-elect, which involved a 20-year delay to Ukraine’s Nato membership, Western security guarantees and a European-manned buffer zone. His stance may soften depending on how he sees the future of the Russian economy and how concerned he is over an unpredictable Donald Trump in the White House.
For now, we must kill the idea that Putin is “winning” the war. It has been a colossal failure. The tragedy is the West may be about to reward Putin with enough territory for him to claim otherwise, turning defeat into victory.
Colonel Richard Kemp CBE is a retired British Army officer who served from 1977 to 2006
The US government is considering new restrictions on Chinese drones. One option is a complete ban on the use of drones from China, as announced in a statement from the US Department of Commerce, according to Reuters.
According to the department, the public has been given the opportunity to express their opinions on the issue of protecting the drone supply chain until March 4, emphasizing that threats from China and Russia “may offer our adversaries the ability to remotely access and manipulate these devices, exposing sensitive US data.”
Reuters highlights that China accounts for the majority of commercial drone sales in the US.
Back in September, US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo stated that her department might implement restrictions similar to those that effectively ban Chinese vehicles in the US. The primary focus will be on drones with Chinese and Russian equipment, chips, and software.
Raimondo noted that she aims to finalize the rules regarding Chinese vehicles by January 20.
At the same time, last month, President Joe Biden signed a law that could ban Chinese companies DJI and Autel Robotics from selling new drone models in the US.
Restrictions
On December 10, Bloomberg reported that China is restricting the export of drone components to the US and Europe.
According to the news agency’s sources, Beijing may impose even stricter restrictions in 2025 and expand control over the export of parts.
The Ministry of Defense’s Main Inspectorate will conduct a thorough review of the Ukrainian Ground Forces Command, focusing on the efficiency of management processes, according to Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov.
Umerov believes that victory requires a deep analysis of experience and an honest understanding of mistakes, especially within the Ground Forces, Ukraine’s largest and most strategically significant military branch.
“Events within the Ground Forces directly impact the situation on the frontline. That is why I support the need for the new Ground Forces Commander, Major General Mykhailo Drapatyi, to have a complete picture of the current state of affairs,” Umerov explained.
The inspection will include:
Analysis of the organizational structure and responsibilities.
Evaluation of the effectiveness of management processes.
Compliance checks with legal regulations.
Based on the findings, reforms will be implemented in management systems and personnel policies. Operational processes will be optimized, and combat readiness will be enhanced through new approaches to training.
Scandals in the Ukrainian Armed Forces
Recently, the media reported on mistreatment by officers of the 211th Pontoon-Bridge Brigade of the Support Forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, including an incident where a soldier was reportedly tied to a wooden cross.
In response, the brigade’s commander, Oleh Poberezhniuk, has been charged with abuse of power.
Defense Minister Rustem Umerov stated that the Ministry of Defense’s Main Inspectorate will investigate these incidents. He also announced plans to establish the position of a military ombudsman to safeguard the rights of military personnel.
The Russian Federation has recruited up to 180,000 prisoners to participate in the war since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. They receive lower payments than other Russian soldiers, according to the Foreign Intelligence Service.
According to intelligence data, as of November 2024, the Russian Federation has recruited between 140,000 and 180,000 individuals who were serving sentences for crimes in Russian prisons to participate in the Russian-Ukrainian war.
At the same time, it is known that there were about 300,000-350,000 prisoners in Russian colonies and prisons as of 2024. This is half the number compared to 2014. The reason for this decrease is their involvement in the war.
Intelligence officials revealed that previously prisoners received a one-time payment of $1,718 under their contracts. However, in July 2024, this payment was increased to $3,524. However, prisoners and their families are deprived of several benefits and allowances received by members of volunteer formations. Additionally, the salary of these individuals is two to four times lower than that of other soldiers.
At the end of December 2024, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin signed a decree to cancel the one-time payments for prisoners. Those who have signed contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense will not receive these payments.
Mobilization of prisoners in Russia
The recruitment of prisoners in Russia has become a common practice during the war against Ukraine. Since the middle of 2022, the Russian government, with the assistance of private military companies such as the Wagner Group, has been involving prisoners in combat operations, offering them amnesty, financial payments, and other privileges.
This initiative has been condemned by human rights organizations, which emphasize the violations of human rights and the lack of transparency regarding the conditions for the prisoners. Many of them have died due to insufficient training, and the promised benefits often remained unfulfilled.
Additionally, we have reported that Russia also plans to form assault units from prisoners infected with hepatitis B and C.
Russian forces continue to assault the positions of Ukrainian defenders. The Ukrainian Defense Forces are disrupting the enemy’s plans, inflicting significant losses in manpower and equipment, according to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
According to military officials, there have been 72 combat engagements since the start of the day.
“Border settlements continue to suffer from cynical shelling from the territory of the Russian Federation, including Bachivsk and Porozok in the Sumy region, as well as Tymofiivka in the Kharkiv region. The enemy also launched airstrikes using guided bombs on the areas of Taratutyne and Pokrovka in the Sumy region,” the General Staff explained.
Frontline situation
In the Kharkiv direction, Ukrainian forces repelled two attacks near Vovchansk.
In the Kupiansk direction, the enemy conducted three assaults near Zapadne, Dvorichna, and Kruhliakivka. One clash has ended, while two others are ongoing. Guided bomb airstrikes targeted Pishchane and Ivanivka.
In the Lyman direction, the enemy launched ten attacks near Nadiia, Makiivka, Terny, Hryhorivka, and the Serebrianskyi Forest. Seven attacks were repelled, and three battles are still underway.
In the Siversk direction, the enemy aviation struck Dronivka, Pazeno, and Siversk, using four guided aerial bombs.
In the Kramatorsk direction, Ukrainian defenders are successfully countering attempts by Russian forces to advance near Chasiv Yar and toward Stupochky.
In the Toretsk direction, the enemy launched four attacks near Toretsk and Shcherbynivka. Two assaults ended unsuccessfully for the Russian army, while two battles are ongoing. Kostiantynivka was struck by three guided aerial bombs.
In the Pokrovsk direction since the start of the day, Russian forces have attempted 20 assaults to dislodge Ukrainian defenders from positions near Myroliubivka, Lysivka, Novyi Trud, Pishchane, Shevchenko, Uspenivka, Solone, and Novovasylivka.
Ukrainian forces repelled 18 attacks, while two clashes are underway. Yablunivka was hit by an airstrike.
In the Kurakhove direction, Russian troops attacked 13 times near Kurakhove and Shevchenko. 11 battles have been completed, and two more are still ongoing.
In the Vremivka direction, the enemy unsuccessfully attacked Ukrainian positions 13 times near Yantarne, as well as in the directions of Kostiantynopil and Novosilka. Airstrikes were launched in the areas of Ulakly, Andriivka, and Novopil, using four guided bombs and unguided air-to-surface missiles.
In the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces continued shelling Ukrainian positions and civilian infrastructure. Airstrikes with unguided air-to-surface missiles targeted Mali Shcherbaky and Piatykhatky.
In the Prydniprovskyi direction, Russian forces launched two unsuccessful assaults on Ukrainian positions. The situation remains under control.
In the Kursk region, Ukrainian defenders repelled one enemy attack, with two additional engagements ongoing. Meanwhile, Russian forces conducted five airstrikes on their own territory, deploying five guided bombs.
Russia’s losses
On January 1, Russian forces suffered significant losses on the battlefield. Ukrainian defenders eliminated 1,370 enemy personnel, four tanks, 13 armored vehicles, 20 artillery systems, 69 tactical UAVs, 54 vehicles, and three units of specialized equipment.
Additionally, the missile forces and artillery units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces struck four areas of enemy troop and equipment concentrations, as well as two Russian air defense systems.
The European Union remains divided on achieving energy independence from Russian gas. By demonstrating flexibility and a willingness to resume importing Russian gas, Europe risks escalating tensions with Moscow and increasing the likelihood of a Third World War.
The implementation of international sanctions has revealed the West’s inability to completely block the flow of high-tech components to Russia’s defense industry. As a result, Western nations have failed to deliver a significant blow to Russia’s defense production or limit its capacity to manufacture weapons due to gaps in enforcing sanctions by domestic producers. Revenues from oil and gas sales have enabled the Kremlin to continue funding not only weapons production but also hybrid operations, including sabotage, across European countries.
The Cold War demonstrated that the collapse of the Soviet Union was largely driven by declining revenues from energy exports, coupled with high defense and military expenditures. Yet, the refusal of some European NATO members to support a ban on Russian energy imports and transit highlights the deep corruption and political dependence of these authoritarian regimes on the Kremlin.
For years, energy blackmail has been a cornerstone of Russia’s imperial policies in the post-Soviet space, including its approach toward Ukraine. Gas-related coercion significantly contributed to the establishment of an authoritarian, corrupt, pro-Russian regime in Ukraine, which destabilized the country, provoked war, and led to territorial annexation.
We remain deeply concerned about NATO’s current ability to counter Russia’s hybrid security threats in Europe. The Kremlin appears to be banking on a scenario where continued energy export revenues allow Russia to bolster its military capacity and sustain subversive operations, particularly in Eastern Europe, the Baltics, and Scandinavia. Sustaining these revenues would enable Moscow to pursue further military expansion in the Euro-Atlantic region, potentially forcing NATO members into direct conflict with Russia.
NATO’s numerical and technological superiority over Russia could increase the likelihood of Moscow’s defeat in such a conflict, potentially prompting the Kremlin to resort to nuclear weapons. Thus, maintaining Moscow’s energy export revenues effectively encourages further destabilizing policies against NATO.
The actions of Slovakia and Hungary in blocking efforts to reduce reliance on Russian gas only exacerbate regional tensions. These actions fail to deter the Kremlin from its confrontational policies toward the West or its ambitions to expand Russia’s borders to those of the early 20th-century empire.
Ukraine, as a transit country for Russian gas and a victim of Russia’s aggressive war, has every right to restrict the aggressor’s budget revenues that fund its military operations.Ultimately, the attempts by some of Russia’s allies in Central Europe to preserve Moscow’s energy revenues heighten the risks of their own involvement in a broader war on European soil. We also believe that the Kremlin will continue to exert pressure on Hungary and Slovakia to resist ending energy transit, aiming to provoke internal conflicts and foster NATO’s fragmentation by exploiting policy disagreements and differing interpretations of Article 5 concerning the defense of alliance members against Russian aggression.
The situation in Pokrovsk is currently quite difficult, but not critical in terms of the front’s collapse. The Russian troops have not yet reached the city, but are attacking with artillery and drones, states Ivan Tymochko, head of the Council of Reservists of the Ground Forces, in a comment to the RBC-Ukraine YouTube channel.
“If we talk about Pokrovsk, besides the official statistics and reports, we know that yes, the enemy has not yet reached Pokrovsk and has not encircled it from the flanks, but enemy drones are flying over the city, unfortunately, and artillery is hitting the city,” said Tymochko.
According to him, the city is already experiencing significant problems with electricity supply, sewage, water drainage, and so on. In other words, Pokrovsk is essentially in a phase of heightened tension, preparing for defense.
“Pokrovsk is also interesting because it was a fairly developed city, and, let’s say, the people who lived there could be considered prosperous. There are a lot of private homes, and in the past, people drilled wells for water, had autonomous heating systems. So, it seems that even though military supplies are suspended, there is still a possibility to provide water supply as much as possible,” the military officer explained.
He noted that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will continue to defend the city, as the defense is already in place. The enemy will likely try to reach the flanks, but once they do, they will most likely attempt a frontal assault.
“Because there is one very characteristic moment for Russian generals, which is that they always try, since World War II, to be the first to capture, to be the first to report that they have taken a city. I think that competition will begin among the commanders and directions, as there are several groups of Russian troops concentrated there,” Tymochko added.
According to him, the Russian forces will most likely attempt a frontal assault in order to quickly report “some interesting, cheerful information” to Vladimir Putin. And it doesn’t even have to be true.
The military officer noted that he cannot assess the readiness of the fortifications but emphasized that work is ongoing.
“Because there are fortifications, say, of a hidden type, which no one knows about, and which will serve as command centers, trenches, or even arsenals. The other issue is that fortifications, as we understand, include trenches, earthworks, and so on. Work is constantly ongoing,” he explained.
Tymochko also believes that as long as the enemy has not resolved the issue of Kurakhove, they are unlikely to be able to fully advance on Pokrovsk. This is because Kurakhove is a vulnerable flank for the Russian troops.
“Especially considering that there is a road from Zaporizhzhia to Donetsk in Kurakhove. It’s a major logistical route, where it’s convenient to deliver reinforcements and ammunition. Perhaps that’s why the Russians have not been able to achieve the full result they had planned in this direction,” the military officer added.
He noted that as long as the Russian army has not aligned the front line in that area, they are unlikely to move toward Pokrovsk. The enemy cannot evenly redeploy their troops in that direction.
“That is, we see that as they attempt to align the flanks, they will be redeploying some of their forces to reinforce Pokrovsk. So, the situation here is not, let’s say, ‘rosy.’ On the other side, it is not a deadlock in terms of the front’s collapse. It’s not as critical for the military. Yes, it’s quite complex, but we need to understand that civilians perceive a retreat of troops differently than the military does,” Tymochko concluded.
Fighting for Pokrovsk
For the past several months, the Russian troops have been attempting to break through the defenses in the Pokrovsk direction. This section of the front remains one of the most challenging.
The neighboring Kurakhove, Kramatorsk, and Vremivka directions also remain active.
As reported earlier by the Khortytsia operational and strategic group of troops, Russia has deployed 150,000 soldiers on the Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Vremivka fronts. Specifically, around 70,000 soldiers are concentrated near Pokrovsk.
According to a spokesperson for the Khortytsia operational and strategic group of troops, Viktor Trehubov, no urban battles are occurring in Pokrovsk at the moment. Russian troops are trying to bypass the city.
