Abdelmadjid Tebboune Poised to Secure Re-Election with Majority Votes in Algeria’s First Round of Voting”

The campaign is drawing to a close for Algeria’s presidential election this weekend. The only real unknown is how many voters will turn out. 

Tuesday was the final day of campaigning for the vote on Saturday, 7 September, with a media blackout to be imposed from Wednesday. The outcome is largely predictable – Incumbent President Abdelmadjid Tebboune willsecure his re-election with a majority of votes in the first of the two rounds of voting. We’ve expected, this election has proceeded without any surprises. In this country, elections tend to be meticulously orchestrated and tightly managed. Tebboune has the support of the administration as the incumbent president.He has eased relations with Algeria’s powerful military. He is also expected to benefit from a change in the election schedule, which left his rivals with less time to campaign. Originally scheduled for December, the poll was brought forward because of what the President called the current international situation and the dangers looming over Algeria.

The country typically avoids holding elections in the summer, when intense heat makes campaigning difficult – but this year’s campaign kicked off in mid-August.

While campaign staff would usually head out into streets and markets to talk to voters, in recent weeks they have tried to meet voters in their homes.

The opposition has complained of intimidation, with dozens of people arrested last month over alleged election fraud and three would-be candidates placed under judicial supervision.

The opposition leader, Fethi Ghares, was detained last week. He stands accused of insulting the president and spreading disinformation online.

 the so-called ban on leaving the national territory (ISTN), rarely justified by a court decision, affects hundreds of activists, journalists, businessmen and politicians.

A prominent figure on Algeria’s secular left, Ghares was involved in the 2019 Hirak movement, the series of mass protests that led to the ousting of long-time president Abdelaziz Bouteflika. His party, the Democratic and Social Movement, succeeded the Algerian Communist Party, but was banned in February 2023.

“The situation is disastrous because civic space and freedoms have been reduced over the years since the start of the Hirak and there are strong reasons to believe that the situation could potentially get worse. 

It is very difficult to do politics in Algeria. and to exist as an opponent. Some journalists or even citizens who have published posts on social media can get arrested.

A lot of people still fear repercussions and do not speak to journalists, for instance, because they are afraid for their safety. People ultimately do not make comments on politics in public, or say things that are a little general.

However Algeria’s political system itself is evolving, and is no longer set around this duality between the armed forces and the political power. Civilians are trying to have a role.

With members of the opposition calling for a boycott, however, some voters are refusing to participate. This is an authoritarian regime that does not respect the rules of democracy. Every Algerian knows the outcome of this election in advance. The current regime fully assumes its authoritarian natureAuthoritarian laws justify the repression of political opponents. In 2021, the Algerian authorities amended the penal code to qualify as a terrorist act and sabotage “any act targeting the security of the state, national unity, stability and the normal functioning of institutions”through actions that “work or incite by any means whatsoever to access power or change the system of governance by non-constitutional means and to undermine the integrity of the national territory.

Article 97 of the penal code, for example, prohibits any type of gathering, while the 2012 laws relating to political parties and associations subject the formation of an NGO or a political party to prior government approval.

In 2023, a new milestone in the restriction of freedom of expression was reached with the adoption of a law on information that bans Algerians with dual nationality from owning or being shareholders in a media outlet in Algeria.

Algerian election campaign marked by social pledges and claims of unfair play.

The last presidential election of 2019 was widely boycotted, resulting in low turnout that undermined the legitimacy of Tebboune’s victory.

The president and his supporters are hoping to up participation this time round.

The public appears to be responding positively to Tebboune’s leadership and policy decisions. The crucial question now is whether this level of support will endure, and what the implications of another five years under Tebboune’s leadership will be for Algeria’s future.”

But In its sixty-two-year modern history, Algeria has never witnessed a smooth transfer of power from one president to another.

The country’s first post-independence president was deposed in a military coup after just three years in office. The coup leader, Houari Boumediene, ruled with an iron grip for more than a decade, entrenching a system of military rule with a thin civilian façade that has endured ever since.

His successor, Chadli Bendjedid, elected in 1979, ruled until an oil price slump obliged the state to curtail social spending, provoking a crisis. His solution, a hasty political opening, nearly delivered the country to an extremist Islamist party. To prevent that outcome, the army seized power in 1992, triggering a civil war. The military tapped independence hero Mohamed Boudiaf—but soon regretted its choice when he launched ambitious anti-corruption and reform campaigns that threatened its interests. After just five months in office, Boudiaf was assassinated on live television by his own bodyguard. the army’s hand-picked candidate, former Foreign Minister Abdelaziz Bouteflika, won an election intended to turn the page on Algeria’s “dark decade.” He was reelected three times and, despite being incapacitated by poor health, remained le pouvoir’s default pick in 2019.

Tebboune, a former regional governor, housing minister, and failed prime minister—who holds the distinction of being Algeria’s shortest-serving premier, lasting less than three months in 2017—emerged as the army’s anointed pick in the controversial polls, which protesters boycotted. He was elected amid record-low turnout.

The Military Establishment:

• Role in Elections: The military in Algeria has historically played a significant role in the country’s politics. While they may not publicly endorse a specific candidate, their support is crucial for anyone aspiring to hold the presidency. They are likely to back a candidate who aligns with their interests and can ensure stability. This will be the  incumbent President Abdelmadjid Tebboune.
• Potential Candidates: If the military perceives a candidate as a stabilizing force or someone who will maintain the status quo, they are more likely to support that person, either overtly or behind the scenes.

2. The National Liberation Front (FLN):

• Support Base: The FLN, the party that led Algeria to independence, has been a dominant political force in the country. However, its influence has waned in recent years due to internal divisions and public dissatisfaction.
• Alliances: The FLN may support a candidate who promises to revitalize the party or someone who represents the traditional power structure in Algeria.

3. Islamist Parties:

• Influence: Islamist parties, such as the Movement of Society for Peace (MSP), have a substantial support base, especially among those dissatisfied with the current system. They are likely to support a candidate who promises reforms that align with their religious and political goals.
• Unity or Fragmentation: Islamist parties in Algeria have a history of both uniting and fragmenting, so their support could be split among different candidates, depending on who best represents their interests.

4. Civil Society and Protest Movements:

• Hirak Movement: The Hirak protest movement, which began in 2019, represents a significant force in Algerian politics. It includes a broad coalition of civil society groups, activists, and ordinary citizens demanding systemic change.
• Support for Reformist Candidates: This movement is likely to back candidates who advocate for genuine reforms, transparency, and an end to corruption. However, they may also call for a boycott if they believe the elections are not free and fair.

5. International Actors:

• France and Other Foreign Powers: Algeria’s former colonial power, France, as well as other countries, may have an interest in the outcome of the elections. While they may not openly endorse candidates, their diplomatic actions and relationships could indirectly influence the election by signaling preferences for stability or reform. We assured This is incumbent President Tebboune.
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6. Incumbent or Government-Backed Candidates:

• Government Support: Candidates backed by the current government or those perceived to be close to the existing power structures, including the presidency and the ruling party, are likely to receive support from state institutions and resources.This is incumbent President Abdelmadjid Tebboune.
• Public Reception: However, public perception of these candidates could be mixed, especially if they are seen as representatives of the status quo, which has been a source of frustration for many Algerians.

7. Youth and First-Time Voters:

• Decisive Factor: Algeria has a young population, and youth voters could play a crucial role in the elections. Their support may go to candidates who address issues like unemployment, education, and social justice.
• Support for Change: Given the disenchantment with traditional politics, younger voters might gravitate toward newer, more progressive candidates who promise change.

The support in Algeria’s elections will depend on how various candidates position themselves in relation to the military, political parties, civil society, and the general public’s demands. The military’s role is pivotal, but the influence of protest movements and the public’s appetite for reform will also shape the election’s dynamics.