Kazakhstan plane crash: What happened and how Russia suppressing missile theory

On the morning of December 25, 2025, an Embraer 190 passenger aircraft of Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL) crashed near Aktau in western Kazakhstan while en route from Baku to Grozny. The exact cause remains unclear, but media reports suggest possible explanations ranging from a bird strike to being hit by a Russian missile defense system.

For more on what happened and which version seems most plausible, read the material by RBC-Ukraine.

Contents

• Embraer crash near Aktau: What happened
• Flock of birds, a balloon explosion, and system failure: Three versions in Russian media
• Could the aircraft have been shot down by the Russian Pantsir-S1 air defense system
• How propaganda tried to hide the drone attack on Grozny
• What the Ukrainian aviation expert thinks about the crash

Embraer crash near Aktau: What happened

The Embraer 190 aircraft was en route to Grozny (Chechnya), but due to landing difficulties, it was diverted to Aktau. According to Flightradar24, the flight took off from Baku at 07:50 AM Kyiv time, but around 08:40 AM, it disappeared from radar near Vladikavkaz (North Ossetia) and reappeared at 10:07 AM over the Caspian Sea. The tracking ended completely at 10:28 AM.

The plane was heading toward Aktau’s airport, but its flight path was unusual. It continuously changed altitude and direction, suggesting there were likely issues with control. The pilots deployed the landing gear but were unable to land the aircraft. The moment of the crash was caught on video: the plane crashed into the ground, followed by an explosion.

Over the Caspian Sea, the aircraft sent a distress signal and then headed for an emergency landing, but it crashed in a field near the runway. Before this, it struggled to maintain altitude for over an hour.

As a result, of the 67 people on board, 38 were killed: both pilots, as well as seven Russian nationals, six Kazakh nationals, and 23 Azerbaijanis. Due to the crash, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev cut short his visit to Russia, where he had been attending the CIS summit. Today, the country has declared a day of mourning.

A delegation from the Azerbaijani State Civil Aviation Agency, as well as representatives from AZAL, have already arrived in Aktau. Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Brazil (Embraer is a Brazilian company) have joined forces to conduct a detailed analysis.

Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Transport confirmed that the investigation will be carried out according to international standards. Yesterday’s crash is one of the most serious incidents in regional civil aviation in recent times.

Flock of birds, a balloon explosion, and system failure: Three versions in Russian media

According to the official version, the cause of the crash could have been a collision with a flock of birds. This was initially stated by the airline AZAL and the press secretary of Rosaviation, Artem Korenyako.

According to the health department of the Mangystau region in Kazakhstan, an oxygen tank supposedly exploded on board. “The oxygen tank exploded, and people began to lose consciousness,” orda.kz, writes, citing eyewitnesses.

Birds often get into engines, but it is extremely rare for this to result in fatal crashes. Usually, airplanes maintain control and can land with one functioning engine.

Photo: Russian propaganda focuses on versions ranging from a bird strike to an explosion inside the plane (Getty Images)

Russian Interfax news agency reported on the failure of one of the main systems. “The aircraft issued a distress signal and then disappeared from radar screens. Therefore, the version of a technical malfunction is currently being considered a priority,” said a source in the emergency services, without going into details.

At the same time, Embraer ERJ-190-100LR aircraft are relatively new and have high safety performance. The AZAL aircraft was produced in 2013 and had passed a full technical inspection just a few weeks before the crash.

There are many versions, and it is too early to speak about them, said Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. “According to the information I was provided, the AZAL aircraft, en route from Baku to Grozny, changed course due to deteriorating weather conditions and began heading toward the Aktau airport, where the accident occurred during the landing,” he added.

However, none of the versions explain the numerous holes in the aircraft’s fuselage. This raises the possibility of external impact on the body, including the potential for a hit from a surface-to-air missile system.

Could the aircraft have been shot down by the Russian Pantsir-S1 air defense system

Several OSINT analysts have pointed out that the marks on the fuselage resemble the effects of a surface-to-air missile strike, possibly from the Pantsir-S1 system.

Oliver Alexander (who collaborates with leading Western media) specifically noted the entry and exit holes. In his view, such damage could not be caused by a bird strike or a crash. “It appears that every single piece of debris that hit the aircraft had enough kinetic energy to punch through the skin and not just dent it,” he explained.

Multiple holes on the tail and stabilizer suggest an external impact, wrote military analyst Julian Röpcke from Bild. According to military observer Yan Matveev, some of the damage has a cylindrical shape, which matches the characteristics of the projectiles used by the Pantsir-S1 air defense system.

Andrii Kovalenko, head of the Center for Countering Disinformation at the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, stated that Russians who had reviewed the crew’s conversations acknowledged that the aircraft had been targeted by air defense systems. While the reliability of the crew’s statements, published by anonymous Telegram channels, remains unverified, it seems the crew may have been unaware of what exactly had happened until the very end.

According to Kovalenko, the plane was not permitted to land in Grozny or Makhachkala (in Russian territory) for a reason. “Only the pilots’ professionalism prevented the Russians from turning this incident into a provocation against Ukraine. Now, Russia will do everything to hide its responsibility for the crash and the loss of lives,” he noted.

Later in the day, Euronews, citing Azerbaijani government sources, reported that preliminary investigation data confirmed the cause: a Russian surface-to-air missile fired over Grozny. According to the sources, the missile was fired during a drone strike on the capital of Chechnya. Its fragments hit passengers and crew members, exploding near the aircraft. Despite the pilots’ request for an emergency landing, they were ordered to fly across the Caspian Sea toward Kazakhstan.

Ukrainian defense portal Defence Express notes that before the crash, drones were being shot down, likely with the help of the Pantsir air defense system. It is possible that the system mistook the passenger aircraft for a drone, as it can operate automatically. Therefore, the system could have failed to distinguish between the two targets.

How propaganda tried to hide the drone attack on Grozny

Russian authorities are downplaying any information that could suggest the AZAL plane was hit by a surface-to-air missile. In particular, yesterday, the propaganda focused on theories involving a balloon and birds, while ignoring the drone strike on Grozny.

The drone attack became known thanks to the Chechen public group NIYSO. The head of the region, Ramzan Kadyrov, did not comment on it, but his nephew, the secretary of the local Security Council, Khamzan Kadyrov, posted “everything is down” on his Instagram.

Until the very end, Russian authorities tried to cover up the drone attack in Vladikavkaz, where an explosion occurred at the Alania Mall. Initially, the propaganda claimed it was a gas explosion, but it was later revealed that the mall was not even connected to gas. The head of North Ossetia later mentioned that drone debris had fallen near the mall.

Photo: the crash site of the plane in Kazakhstan (facebook.com/azamat.sarsenbaev)

On central TV channels, news broadcasts reported the difficult situation at the airport in Grozny due to fog, with no mention of the “Carpet plan” in the North Caucasus. They also stated that the plane headed to Aktau, not reaching Chechnya, and allegedly turned around near Makhachkala. This contradicts the flight path shown on Flightradar24.

In the news reports from the crash site, a life vest with a hole, which was supposedly “pierced by a fragment of a balloon,” was shown. However, the numerous holes in the rear fuselage, indicating missile damage, were not shown in any of the reports.

What the Ukrainian aviation expert thinks about the crash

Aviation expert Konstiantyn Kryvolap noticed various-sized holes in the fuselage. In his opinion, it is possible that, in addition to the missile, the plane was also shot at with anti-aircraft artillery shells from a Pantsir.

“Most likely, there was an explosion from a Pantsir missile, and maybe something else was added. It probably happened like that because just recently, Kadyrov asked Putin for two or three Pantsirs, and they placed them near the Grozny airfield,” he told the RBC-Ukraine YouTube channel.

According to him, the automatic mode in this air defense system is intended to repel mass attacks when many aerial targets approach from different angles and directions. The system calculates the optimal interception trajectories, and the operator intervenes to adjust which targets are prioritized. “But this is difficult; you need to train to work on the interaction between humans and machines. And there was no time for that. And they struck as they did,” the expert emphasized.

Kryvolap added that the most interesting thing is how the commission will be formed. There is a clear ICAO procedure. According to it, the commission should be created by Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Brazil.

“And how can Russia, which is eager to influence the conclusions, fit into this team? We will see if (Azerbaijani President Ilham) Aliyev can withstand the pressure or not. And the pressure will be immense,” the expert noted.

He also added that the Russians most likely hoped the plane would fall into the Caspian Sea. And if they manage to interfere with the investigation, they will spread the narrative about Ukraine’s alleged influence: that if it hadn’t been for the drones, the Russian air defense would not have shot down the Azerbaijani plane.

“As for the A-22 planes (of a Ukrainian company, – ed.) Aeroprakt (allegedly, they attacked Grozny in a drone version, – ed.), more than 1000 of these were produced. Moreover, there may be more of them in Russia than in Ukraine. And buying them for FSB agents or Kadyrov’s enemies and converting them into drones is not a big problem,” he concluded.

Sources: materials from Russian, Kazakh, and Azerbaijani media, Euronews, the Ukrainian Defense Express profile portal, statements by the Head of the Center for Countering Disinformation at the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Andrii Kovalеnkо, information from Telegram channels, and a comment by aviation expert Konstiantyn Kryvolap for the RBC-Ukraine YouTube channel.