Author: Mike Nova

As we head into the final weeks before Election Day, the political campaigns are likely bracing for an unexpected “October Surprise” that could influence voters and impact the results. The term was first coined by William Casey, who served as campaign manager for Ronald Reagan during the 1980 presidential campaign, yet, there have been October election-upending events going back to the 19th century.

What Casey and his predecessors likely never expected was how misinformation—and even disinformation—could be employed to sway voters. Advances in technology like Deep Fakes, an overreliance on social media for news and information, and foreign actors who seek to undermine confidence in our elections have created a perfect storm for such a nightmare scenario.

October Surprises Are Real And So Are Their Consequences

Nearly eight years ago, a video of then-candidate and now-former President Donald Trump surfaced in which he bragged about grabbing women by their genitals. It was an “October surprise” that almost derailed his campaign. Four years later, Trump contracted Covid-19 and was forced to cancel a debate with then-candidate Joe Biden and stop all campaigning.

With just weeks to go until Election Day, there could be a similar surprise—and perhaps even a made-up one. Yet, the consequences could be huge.

“When Hillary Clinton recently warned Kamala Harris about the threat of an October surprise, she knew what she was talking about. Remember James Comey, just 11 days before the 2016 election? That turned out to be a nothing burger—and Comey was rebuked in subsequent investigations for his actions. Or Pizzagate? That, too, turned out to be false,” said Susan Campbell, distinguished lecturer in the College of Arts & Sciences at the University of New Haven.

“This year, voters must be on guard for the biggest threat to a free and fair election: Misinformation. They must steel themselves against lies and distortions, particularly on social media,” added Campbell. “Recently, an army of bots and trolls took to X(witter) to say that the federal government had not done enough to help the people harmed by Hurricane Helene, which was false.”

Misinformation Isn’t New

The spread of misinformation and disinformation during an election season isn’t new and actually dates back to the country’s founding. Smithsonian magazine previously reported how in the 1800 election Thomas Jefferson engaged in a “smear campaign against then-president John Adams,” which “climaxed with an unexpected October broadside.” The late-season attack, carried out by Alexander Hamilton—a critic of Adams and who went on to be Jefferson’s VEEP—remains one of the earliest examples of an effective late-campaign attack on a political rival.

During the 1840 election, rumors circulated that the Whig Party had paid residents of Pennsylvania to cross state lines and cast votes in New York during the 1838 election. There was no basis that this occurred, but people believed it—just as some today believe illegal immigrants can head to the polls to sway the election results.

It was also 100 years before William Casey coined the term “October Surprise” that a disinformation campaign almost impacted the presidential election results.

The New York Truth newspaper published a forged letter on October 20, 1880, allegedly written by Republican candidate James Garfield voicing support for Chinese immigration at a time when many white Americans were opposed to Chinese immigration over fears that they were stealing jobs from American workers. In truth, both campaigns were in favor of immigration restrictions. Garfield went on to win the election by a narrow margin, but there has been speculation if the forged letter was released a little earlier the situation could have been different.

Misinformation/disinformation has clearly existed for a while, but social media could impact how it reaches the masses.

“The World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report highlights that the primary risk for 2024 is the use of misinformation and disinformation by malicious actors to disrupt society and further polarize communities,” warned

Craig Barkacs, professor of business law and ethics in the MBA programs at the Knauss School of Business at the University of San Diego.

Micro Surprises Could Take Shape

The October surprise may no longer be a single event or revelation. We could already see many at work, with misinformation already circulating about Senator JD Vance and his couch, and Governor Tim Walz supporting post-birth abortions.

But users of social media should be on guard for even more misinformation and disinformation in the coming weeks.

“There may be several October surprises in the works,” said Barkacs. “For most individuals, these may not make a significant difference as their opinions are already formed. For a small percentage, however, these surprises could be pivotal. The presidential elections of 2016 and 2020 illustrate how a tiny fraction of votes in crucial swing states can determine the outcome.”

Artificial intelligence may offer the ability to micro-target voters on social media while being strategically timed and aimed at a particular audience to help alter the results of the election.

“These micro-targeted voters are likely to be low-information voters, who are more susceptible to misinformation. These individuals, often unaware of the broader context, are the first to believe and spread unfounded stories,” Barkacs continued. “Research indicates that micro-targeting specific groups can influence voting behavior. We should be concerned about just what impact a deviously concocted October surprise could have on the outcome of the election.”

Voters Need To Be Informed

The most effective way to combat misinformation and disinformation is to ensure that we have a well-informed electorate, and that could users offering direct responses to the more outlandish commentary spread on the social networks.

“This go-round, there can be no passivity,” suggested Campbell. “For the good of the election, voters must find and amplify the truth—to, in effect, shout down the trolls.”