Category: Audio Posts: Selected Articles

The analysis of available facts and phenomena indicates a low risk of a large-scale Azerbaijani attack on Armenia at this point, Armenia’s Foreign Intelligence Service said in its Annual Report on External Security Risks of the Republic of Armenia for 2025. The report, available in both Armenian and English, states in part:

“2024 was marked by frequency of bilateral high-level meetings, contacts and written communication, mainly touching upon the normalization of relations, the text of the peace agreement, border demarcation and delimitation, unblocking of infrastructure, humanitarian and other issues. In 2025, it is highly likely that bilateral formats of negotiations around various issues between Armenia and Azerbaijan will remain the most effective of the ones used by the parties before.

Based on the analysis of various facts, information and phenomena, at the time of publishing of this report, the likelihood of a large-scale attack on Armenia by the Azerbaijani side is not assessed as high. Meanwhile, in the absence of a peace agreement and interstate relations, the risk of local tensions and escalation on the border will remain a part of Azerbaijan’s policy of the threat of use of force. A potential guarantee for addressing this risk can be the smooth continuation of the delimitation and demarcation process, started in 2024.

In this context, the task of our Service is to continuously assess whether Azerbaijan’s consistent development and financing of various harmful narratives against the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Armenia aim to “legitimize” its intention to use force against Armenia. Among those narratives are so-called “Western Azerbaijan and Western Azerbaijanis”, “Armenia’s militarization”, “revanchism” and the “Zangezur corridor”.

The delays in the process of normalization of relations and peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan significantly increase the uncertainty about the real intention of Azerbaijan for establishing lasting peace.

In general, the absence of a peace agreement and diplomatic relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan creates a real risk for keeping interstate relations tense, which can deteriorate under the influence of realignments or transformations of historical alliances in the region.

The risks of preserving tensions in relations are increased also by Azerbaijan’s aggressive official rhetoric, attempts to interfere in the internal affairs of Armenia, as well as Azerbaijan’s steps to impose its own unilateral demands in the negotiation process by adding various artificial topics. In 2025, the probability of continuous application of this toolkit remains high.

In 2025, Azerbaijan will maintain the pace of development of its own offensive military capabilities by decreasing the time between the high-level political decision to initiate a military action and the launch of a military action on the ground. Within this framework, Azerbaijan will continue working on the transition to more mobile units, training of their reserve, acquisition and import of new armaments, as well as upgrade of military infrastructure.”

DAVOS, Switzerland, January 21. On January 21,
President of the Republic of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev met with
President of the State of Israel Isaac Herzog in Davos upon the
latter’s request, Trend reports.

The Presidents praised the successful development of bilateral
relations between Azerbaijan and Israel.

Isaac Herzog fondly recalled his official visit to
Azerbaijan.

During the conversation, both sides acknowledged the level of
economic and trade collaboration and commended the work of the
joint intergovernmental commission.

They emphasized the traditional, historical friendship between
Azerbaijanis and Jews and expressed satisfaction with the
comprehensive conditions in Azerbaijan that allow the Jewish
community, along with representatives of other communities, to live
in an environment of peace, tranquility, and mutual
understanding.

The AZAL passenger aircraft on the Baku-Grozny route that crashed near Aktau on December 25 last year was definitely hit by Russian air defense systems, Talgat Kaliyev, director of the Institute of Applied Ethnopolitical Research LLP, said in an interview with Report.

Today, one of the main questions in the joint investigation is who made the decision to open fire on a civilian aircraft and how could it have been mistaken for a UAV?

The investigation itself will take considerable time, Kaliyev noted. But preliminary results will be announced soon.

“Both Azerbaijani and Russian sides are actively participating in the process. Kazakhstan’s task is to coordinate the investigation and preserve all elements of the crashed aircraft’s fuselage, which has been ensured,” Kaliyev noted.

He reminded that Russia does not deny the fact that the airliner was hit by air defense systems.

“Specifically hit, not shot down. There was no malicious intent. The question is who failed to distinguish between a UAV and a civilian aircraft, and who made the decision to open fire on a passenger plane,” the agency’s interviewee said.

“Kazakhstan, as the head of the international state commission investigating the air crash near Aktau, is behaving as professionally and correctly as possible. This is expressed in its impartiality and transparency of all activities,” Kaliyev said.

The political scientist recalled that the main evidence of this is Kazakhstan’s decision to transfer the flight recorders to Brazil – the manufacturer country of the crashed Embraer aircraft – for decoding. Representatives from both Azerbaijan and Russia are participating in the decoding of the records.

Tomorrow, Tuesday, 21 January, a new hearing will begin in the arbitrary trial against the editor-in-chief of Azerbaijani news site Abzas Media Sevinj Vagif gizi Abbasova, known as Sevinj Vagifgizi, and five of her colleagues. All defendants plead not guilty to the eight blatantly unfounded charges against them, including “foreign currency smuggling”. According to the defence lawyers, the prosecution has presented no tangible evidence. The journalists face up to 12 years in prison.

At the preliminary hearing on 17 December 2024, reporters attempting to cover the trial were denied access to the courtroom, allegedly due to lack of space although the courtroom was filled with individuals unrelated to the case. Legitimate defence requests — including calls for further investigation, access to video recordings in investigative case files, and replacing provisional detention with house arrest — were rejected, highlighting the arbitrary nature of the proceedings.

The abuse of the judiciary 

What’s more, two of the three judges handling the case were the subject of investigations published by Abzas Media that exposed their dependence on political authorities. One judge, Rasim Sadikhov, participated in the politically motivated conviction of a human rights defender, as determined by the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) in 2018.

“The persecution of Sevinj Vagifgizi and her colleagues, known for their investigations into high-level state corruption, illustrates the authoritarian tendencies of Ilham Aliyev’s regime. These prosecutions are part of a broader strategy to discredit and neutralise independent media like Abzas Media, which challenge the regime by exposing abuses of power. RSF demands their immediate release and calls on Azerbaijan’s international partners, particularly the European Union, to condition their cooperation with the country on its concrete progress in press freedom.

Sevinj Vagifgizi was arrested by police at Baku Airport upon her return from Istanbul on 21 November 2023. Fully aware she would be detained, the Abzas Media editor-in-chief returned to Azerbaijan. Her pretrial detention has been repeatedly extended, as have the detentions of her colleagues. She has endured horrific conditions for over a year: overcrowded and unventilated cells, threats, psychological abuse, and violations of her rights as a prisoner. Visits and phone calls with her family were only permitted after a public protest by her mother. Moreover, her family’s bank accounts were frozen for six months.

Persistent harassment

Sevinj Vagifgizi’s detention is the latest chapter in her history of being persecuted which includes threats, police violence, surveillance, and other abuses. Detained several times over her career, she was subjected to a five-year travel ban in 2015, which the ECHR ruled illegal in May 2020.

The arrest of Abzas Media’s journalists marks a new wave of repression. At least 20 independent media professionals are currently imprisoned in Azerbaijan, victims of a judicial system and prison administration tightly controlled by the Aliyev clan. The recent imprisonment of Toplum TV journalist Farid Ismailov on 17 January and the interrogation of Voice of America journalist Ulviyya Guliyeva the day before signal grim prospects for the future of the country’s independent media. 

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Russian President Vladimir Putin have held a telephone conversation, during which they have discussed Yerevan’s approval of a draft law that would see the commencement of Armenia’s EU negotiations.

On Friday, both Pashinyan’s office and the Kremlin published statements about the call, with Armenia publishing a relatively shorter version of the statement, compared to Russia’s.

According to a statement from Pashinyan’s office, the two leaders ‘discussed the results’ of Armenia’s presidency of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) in 2024, ‘upcoming activities within the framework of the EAEU, as well as a number of issues on the Armenia–Russia bilateral agenda’.

The Russian side noted that the call took place at Armenia’s behest, and that they ‘acknowledged the tangible, practical impact’ of the joint work within the EAEU, including for the Armenian economy.

The statement concluded with a paragraph noting that Pashinyan had ‘explained the situation with Yerevan’s recent steps in its relations with the European Union’, and that in response, Putin ‘offered his comments and assessments’.

The Armenian government’s approval of a draft law which would begin Armenia’s process of joining the EU swiftly stirred Russia’s disapproval in the recent weeks since it was announced.

Several high-ranking Russian officials, including Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, noted that Armenia’s accession to the EU is ‘incompatible’ with its EAEU membership, and reminded Armenians of the benefits the country receives as part of its membership to the economic bloc.

Overchuk said that Moscow considered Yerevan’s approval of the bill to be ‘the beginning of Armenia’s withdrawal from the EAEU’.

Armenia’s energy security

The Kremlin’s statement noted that the Russian and Armenian leaders also discussed issues related to the energy sector, noting that the two discussed ‘several current aspects of further deepening integration, primarily in the energy sector’.

The issue was also included in the Strategic Partnership Charter signed by Armenia and the US last week. The Charter noted that ‘Armenia and the United States intend to explore opportunities to increase and diversify Armenia’s energy production and supplies’.

‘This includes the development of a civil nuclear power program with the highest standards for nuclear safety, security, and nonproliferation; efforts to enhance energy security and efficiency, including through a significant increase in the share of renewables in Armenia’s energy mix; and measures to increase Armenia’s energy connectivity to regional and European markets’.

In July 2024, the head of Armenia’s Security Council said that Yerevan and Washington are in ‘substantive’ negotiations to build a new nuclear power plant in Armenia.

However, months earlier, Armenia also courted Russia’s state-owned nuclear agency Rosatom in December 2023 to discuss the extension of the Metsamor nuclear power plant until 2036, with talks ‘ongoing’ about building a new reactor at the aging facility.

Freefall of bilateral relations

Despite Russian officials stating that the development of a strategic partnership with the US was Armenia’s sovereign right, they nonetheless criticised the decision.

Lavrov also admitted that bilateral relations between Armenia and Russia are ‘not without difficulties’, but said that ‘dialogue continues’.

Last week also saw another crisis in Armenian and Russian relations, as the Armenian Foreign Ministry announced that Russia’s Ambassador to Armenia had been summoned and handed a letter of protest concerning a programme aired on Russia’s state-run TV outlet, in which statements were made against Armenia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

High-Tech Industries Minister Mkhitar Hayrapetyan then suggested that the programme could be banned in Armenia.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova stated that Armenia’s ‘reaction is puzzling because we are talking about the statements of a journalist’, adding that they had heard from Yerevan that Armenia is committed to freedom of speech.