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Trump EPA’s Next Move: Making It Harder to Sue for Getting Cancer from Roundup

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Every spring, summer, and fall, Jimmy Draeger would walk the length of his 11-acre property with a hand sprayer and a tub of Roundup. He’d mist around the flower beds, the patio, the fence line, diluting the concentrated herbicide with water as the label directed.

Nestled deep in the woods of the Missouri Ozarks, Draeger was used to seeing an explosion of weeds and shrubs in the warm months at the home he’s shared with his wife, Brenda, for more than 30 years. He didn’t think much of using Roundup to keep them at bay.

Then he was diagnosed with stage four non-Hodgkin lymphoma. According to a lawsuit filed by the Draegers in 2022, Jimmy had a chemotherapy port installed in his chest, developed neuropathy in his hands and feet, and lost control of his bowels, coordination, and sexual function. He became clinically depressed, vision-impaired, and unable to bathe without Brenda’s help.


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Monsanto, the agrochemical company behind Roundup, was to blame for Jimmy’s lymphoma, the Draegers contended. In November 2023, a jury agreed. Bayer, which acquired Monsanto in 2018, was ordered to pay the Draegers and two other plaintiffs a combined $1.56 billion in damages. (A judge later cut the payout for punitive damages, reducing the total awards to $611 million.)

The Draegers’ case is one of more than 160,000 Roundup lawsuits filed against Monsanto or Bayer since 2015, when the World Health Organization’s International Agency for Research on Cancer classified glyphosate, a key ingredient in Roundup, as “probably carcinogenic to humans.”

Most of the lawsuits hinged on failure-to-warn claims: the allegation that Monsanto, and later Bayer, failed to adequately notify customers of glyphosate’s potential cancer risk. Bayer has paid roughly $11 billion to settle these claims while denying any wrongdoing.

Now, the Environmental Protection Agency is considering a Bayer-backed rule that could significantly curtail the lawsuits.

Enter the EPA

Unlike the WHO, the EPA — which, headed by Trump appointee Lee Zeldin, has already announced massive regulatory rollbacks — does not consider glyphosate to be a likely human carcinogen.

“EPA’s cancer classification is consistent with most other international expert panels and regulatory authorities,” EPA Associate Administrator for Public Affairs Molly Vaseliou said in a statement to The Intercept. “EPA does not agree with IARC’s conclusion that glyphosate is ‘probably carcinogenic to humans.’”

Last August, 11 industry-friendly red states, led by Nebraska and Iowa, submitted a 436-page petition asking the agency to amend its labeling rules under the Federal Insecticide, Rodenticide, and Fungicide Act, or FIFRA. The proposed rule change would explicitly prohibit states from labeling pesticides and herbicides with warnings about cancer, birth defects, and reproductive harm if those notices contradict the EPA’s risk assessment.

The states made clear that their ultimate goal is to thwart future lawsuits against pesticide manufacturers. Their petition argued that recent court rulings have created a “gap in FIFRA’s regulatory framework” that the proposed rule change would plug.

“It’s telling of the lengths that pesticide manufacturers will go to make sure that nothing interferes with their profit margins.”

In January, in a move initiated by the Biden administration, the EPA took a first step of accepting public comment on the rule-making petition, with a deadline of March 24 — though this step is exploratory and does not mean a new rule will be issued. Still, the EPA’s decision could have disastrous consequences if Donald Trump’s second administration is as friendly to the chemical industry as it was in his first.

“It’s telling of the lengths that pesticide manufacturers will go to make sure that nothing interferes with their profit margins,” said Brett Hartl, government affairs director at the Center for Biological Diversity. “There’s a reality that the industry itself generates much of the data, and they say it’s safe, and then EPA approves that determination.”

“If we’re not limited to the industry-created data set,” he said, “they see it as a larger threat to their ability to control the universe of science and data that go into the pesticide regulatory review process.”

Warning Labels

The EPA petition follows in the path of other efforts at both the state and federal level to shield Bayer from civil liability.

Last year, state legislatures in Florida, Idaho, Iowa, and Missouri introduced bills that would make pesticide manufacturers immune to failure-to-warn lawsuits if their product labels match EPA assessments. And House Republicans introduced similar language in the discussion draft of the 2024 Farm Bill.

Though all the bills failed, allies of the chemical industry are expected to redouble their efforts this year. Advocates expect at least 21 states to introduce pesticide immunity legislation in 2025. The Florida Senate already has.

Bayer itself bankrolled the push, spending nearly $8.5 million to lobby the federal government in 2024, including to advocate for the “uniformity of pesticide labeling” under FIFRA.

FIFRA already prohibits the sale of “misbranded” pesticides, which includes requiring state health warnings to conform with EPA-approved labels.

“We are very pleased to see the EPA and several state Attorneys General take this step to reinforce that any state labeling requirements inconsistent with EPA’s own findings and conclusions regarding human health, such as a pesticide’s likelihood to cause cancer, constitute misbranding,” Bayer said in a statement to The Intercept. “It reinforces the urgent need for a solution to this issue created by the litigation industry.”

The raft of litigation over Roundup, however, has not always ended badly for Bayer. Federal appeals courts disagree on whether the FIFRA misbranding statute trumps state laws that may require manufacturers to go farther in adequately warning consumers about their products.

The 9th and 11th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals have ruled in plaintiffs’ favor in recent years, finding that failure-to-warn claims against Bayer in state courts are consistent with FIFRA’s intent; the 3rd Circuit, meanwhile, found the opposite. The split could set the stage for a Supreme Court battle.

The EPA rule change proposed in the states’ petition aims to remedy the circuit split by explicitly classifying labels as “misbranded” if they include health warnings that exceed the EPA’s risk assessment.

The agency’s position on glyphosate has been mired in controversy for decades. In 1991, the EPA mysteriously changed its classification from “suggestive evidence” of glyphosate’s carcinogenic potential to “no evidence.”


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Since then, documents released in Roundup litigation have shown Monsanto cozying up to EPA regulators, ghostwriting scientific papers on glyphosate’s safety, and actively working to discredit journalists and WHO.

In 2015 — the same year the international body’s cancer bureau classified glyphosate as a probable human carcinogen — The Intercept reported that the EPA had overwhelmingly used Monsanto’s own research to conclude that glyphosate was not an endocrine disruptor.

In 2016, an internal EPA analysis noted an association between glyphosate exposure and an increased risk of non-Hodgkin lymphoma in four epidemiological studies, The Intercept reported. The EPA analysis was never made public. Instead, the agency drew from industry-backed studies in 2016 to conclude that glyphosate was “not likely to be carcinogenic to humans.”

“The industry itself generates and pays for much of this data, so that is very different of course than peer-reviewed, hypothesis-based, independent science,” said Hartl, of the Center for Biological Diversity. “That creates an inherent tension and conflict of interest.”

“EPA’s long-standing practice is to seek input from a variety of stakeholders and use the best available science,” said Vaseliou, the EPA public affairs official. “EPA evaluates information from all kinds of sources — pesticide companies, other governments, academia, and the published scientific literature.”


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In 2020, during the periodic pesticide review process mandated by FIFRA, the EPA issued an interim decision to reregister glyphosate with a risk assessment that did not identify “any human health risks of concern.” But in June 2022, in a separate case from the FIFRA ruling, the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals vacated the EPA’s assessment, noting the decision had been made without following the agency’s own cancer guidelines, and ordered the EPA to reevaluate its findings.

The new analysis is still forthcoming.

“In accordance with the court’s decision related to human health, EPA is currently updating its evaluation of the carcinogenic potential of glyphosate to better explain its findings and include the current relevant scientific information,” said Vaseliou. “EPA’s underlying scientific findings regarding glyphosate, including its finding that glyphosate is not likely to be carcinogenic to humans, remain the same.”

Trump’s MAHA Promise

How the EPA decides to proceed with the glyphosate petition will in many ways be a canary in the coal mine for this administration’s approach to chemical regulation.

While Trump’s first term was marked by severe deference to industry, his recent rhetoric has promoted Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s “Make America Healthy Again,” or MAHA, agenda.

In a February executive order, the president pledged to eliminate “undue industry influence” and “establish a framework for transparency and ethics review in industry-funded projects” — the same reforms that advocates have long said would strengthen the EPA’s glyphosate review.

Kennedy is a longtime critic of the pesticide industry; in an October YouTube video, he railed against the country’s agriculture policy for “tilting the playing field in favor of more chemicals, more herbicides, more insecticides” and promised to “ban the worst agricultural chemicals that are already prohibited in other countries.” As a lawyer with the Natural Resources Defense Council, a leading nonprofit environmental law group, he took Monsanto to task, helping secure a multimillion-dollar settlement in a Roundup cancer lawsuit in 2018.

There are indications, of course, that the MAHA promise is a smokescreen.

In 2017, Trump’s EPA rejected a proposed ban on chlorpyrifos, a pesticide linked to increased cancer risk. He appointed former American Chemistry Council executive Nancy Beck to oversee toxic chemical regulation. Beck is once again slated to take a senior EPA position; Lynn Dekleva, another ACC lobbyist who fought the EPA’s efforts to regulate formaldehyde, will now run the agency’s Office of Chemical Safety and Pollution Prevention.

Vaseliou said, “Your questions regarding Dr. Beck and Dr. Dekleva are insulting and unfounded. This is yet another question based on false accusations that left propaganda also known as media take as gospel. President Trump made a fantastic choice in selecting Dr. Beck and Dr. Dekleva to work at EPA.”

On March 12, Zeldin, Trump’s EPA chief, announced the agency would begin rolling back 31 environmental regulations — “the greatest day of deregulation our nation has seen,” he said — including rules aimed at preventing disasters at hazardous chemical facilities and restricting the industrial pollution of mercury.

“It strikes me that there’s a very significant tension between what the president has promised relating to the overuse of pesticides in this country versus the other elements of his own administration that reflexively do what industry wants no matter what,” said Hartl. “He’s going to have to decide who he’s going to let down: whether it’s his own supporters that believe in his MAHA agenda or his industry benefactors.”

The post Trump EPA’s Next Move: Making It Harder to Sue for Getting Cancer from Roundup appeared first on The Intercept.


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Texas’s GOP Governor Can Arbitrarily Deny Democrats a Seat in Congress Until Next Year

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Voters in Texas’s 18th Congressional District have a problem: Their representatives keep dying. First longtime lawmaker Sheila Jackson Lee perished last July, then former Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner passed away this month.

Normally, residents of the 18th would get to keep having representation in Congress, but they have yet another problem: The majority-minority district is a heavily Democratic, one of the bluest in the state. And Republicans don’t want another Democratic vote in the House.

“I think we’re in a situation where hardball, partisan politics is going to prevail.”

That seems to be why, for the meantime, following the two recent deaths, the 18th is unlikely get to have anyone in Washington until next year.

Republican Texas Gov. Greg Abbott has a choice about the timing of the election to replace Turner that could prop up House Speaker Mike Johnson’s historically narrow, five-seat GOP majority.

Abbott can either call an election for May 3, for later this year, or for November 4, with the latter date creating a six-month delay in when district residents can pick their representative. The governor has yet to signal how he will act, but one observer of Texas politics expects him to favor Johnson.

“I think we’re in a situation where hardball, partisan politics is going to prevail,” said Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University. “With every vote in the House being precious, Abbott has the ability to provide Speaker Mike Johnson with one more degree of freedom in terms of passing hard votes between now and the end of the year.”

Timing Is Everything

Turner died on March 5, hours after attending President Donald Trump’s address to Congress and weeks after taking office.

The 70-year-old’s death came only eight months after that of Jackson Lee, a pugnacious progressive known for her support of causes such as reparations and the Black Lives Matter movement.

Under Texas law, Abbott has wide latitude to decide when the special election to replace Turner is held. There are two preexisting statewide election dates he could peg it to: May 3 and November 4. He could also choose another date sometime in between by declaring an emergency. (Abbott’s office did not respond to a request for comment.)

If Abbott decides that the election should be held May 3, Texas law says that he would need to make that determination 36 days ahead of time, giving him until the end of next week to issue a proclamation.

Jones said voters should not hold their breath.

“There’s nothing anyone can do after the end of next week to force the governor’s hand,” he said. “There will be some backlash, but it will be backlash among liberal Democrats in Houston. That is not exactly the governor’s constituency.”

Democratic Govs. Kathy Hochul of New York and Katie Hobbs of Arizona have far less leeway under their states’ laws in determining when to hold special elections to replace Rep. Raúl Grijalva, D-Ariz., who died last week, and Rep. Elise Stefanik, D-N.Y., whose nomination as ambassador to the United Nations is pending.

Losing Out

If the election to replace Turner is held November 4, that could result in a December runoff under Texas law, giving the eventual victor scant opportunity to legislate this year.

The candidates so far include Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee and former Houston City Council Member Amanda Edwards, both Democrats.

If either is elected, they would continue a trend of Black lawmakers representing a diverse district, where Latinos make up a plurality of residents but Black voters make up a plurality of voters.

Jones said whoever is elected will almost certainly be a critic of Republicans.

“This is an election that will be decided by hardcore Democratic primary voters,” he said, “so a robust opposition to Donald Trump is something that all of the candidates will be promoting.”

The post Texas’s GOP Governor Can Arbitrarily Deny Democrats a Seat in Congress Until Next Year appeared first on The Intercept.


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Pennsylvania State Education Association data breach impacts 500,000 individuals

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A data breach at the Pennsylvania State Education Association exposed the personal information of over 500,000 individuals.

The Pennsylvania State Education Association (PSEA) suffered a data breach that impacted 517,487 individuals. PSEA is a labor union representing teachers, education support professionals, and other school employees in Pennsylvania. It advocates for public education, negotiates contracts, and provides professional development for its members. PSEA is affiliated with the National Education Association (NEA).

The incident occurred around July 6, 2024, and exposed people’s personal information. An investigation completed on February 18, 2025, confirmed that threat actors accessed personal information. The company added that it made efforts to ensure the stolen data was deleted, suggesting it has paid a ransom.

“PSEA experienced a security incident on or about July 6, 2024 that impacted our network environment. Through a thorough investigation and extensive review of impacted data which was completed on February 18, 2025, we determined that the data acquired by the unauthorized actor contained some personal information belonging to individuals whose information was contained within certain files within our network.” reads the data breach notification. ” We took steps, to the best of our ability and knowledge, to ensure that the data taken by the unauthorized actor was deleted.”

Compromised personal information includes full names in combination with one or more of the following elements: Date of Birth, Driver’s License or State ID, Social Security Number, Account Number, Account PIN, Security Code, Password and Routing Number, Payment Card Number, Payment Card PIN and Payment Card Expiration Date, Passport Number, Taxpayer ID Number, Username and Password, Health Insurance Information and Medical Information.

The company started notifying potentially impacted individuals.

The Pennsylvania State Education Association promptly launched an investigation into the security breach with the help of cybersecurity experts. PSEA also notified law enforcement.

PSEA is updating policies, boosting security, and enhancing monitoring to prevent breaches and strengthen data protection.

“We have no evidence that any of the information has been used for identity theft or to commit financial fraud. Nevertheless, out of an abundance of caution, we want to make the impacted individuals aware of the incident.” continues the notification.

PSEA provided one year of free credit monitoring and identity restoration services to the impacted individuals.

On September 9, 2024, the Rhysida ransomware group claimed responsibility for the security breach. The group added the company to its Tor leak site and demanded 20 Bitcoin-ransom to PSEA.

At this time, PSEA was removed from the gang’s Tor leak site.

Follow me on Twitter: @securityaffairs and Facebook and Mastodon

Pierluigi Paganini

(SecurityAffairs – hacking, Pennsylvania State Education Association)


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Bernie Sanders, AOC visiting swing districts in coming days

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(NewsNation) — Angry constituents at town hall events for Republican lawmakers have made headlines recently, as conservative voters chide their representatives for some of the actions being taken by the Department of Government Efficiency.

Recently, liberal voters have also been criticizing their Democratic lawmakers as well — in this case, for not doing enough to fight Republican President Donald Trump’s agenda.

Now, in the next couple of days, progressive lawmakers are going to swing districts in Arizona, Nevada and Colorado. Democratic New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is joining Sen. Bernie Sanders, an independent from Vermont, on his “Fighting Oligarchy: Where We Go From Here” tour.

Democrats say this is to fill the void, as House Republican leadership has told members of their party to stop doing in-person town hall events. Another reason is to get a chance to put their message in front of Republicans.

In front of a crowd of 15,000 in Nevada Thursday, Ocasio-Cortez said this isn’t just about Republicans though.

“We need a Democratic Party that fights harder for us too. So I want to thank you,” she told audience members. “Your state is pulling its weight out here, but we need more like them with the courage to brawl for the working class.”

At another stop in Colorado, Sanders noted the large crowds, saying they make it “clear…that the American people are outraged at what’s going on.”

“The American people are saying loud and clear we will not accept an oligarchic form of society,” Sanders said. “We will not accept the richest guy in the world running all over Washington making cuts to the Social Security Administration, cuts to the Veterans Administration, almost destroying the Department of Education, all so that they could give over a trillion dollars in tax breaks to the wealthiest 1 percent.”

NewsNation spoke to several moderate Democrats who say they’re OK with the progressives in their party spreading their message like this.

However, Republican Rep. Chuck Edwards of North Carolina dismissed the Democrats’ actions.

“They see that those types of actions are not a sincere effort in having rational, reasonable conversation to advance the American agenda,” Edwards said.


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Putin is ruthlessly erasing Ukrainian identity in Russian-occupied Ukraine

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Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered Ukrainians living under Russian occupation to “legalize” their status by September 10 or face deportation. In other words, those who have not yet done so must apply for Russian passports or risk being expelled from their homes as foreigners. This March 20 presidential decree is the latest step in a campaign to pressure Ukrainians into accepting Russian citizenship as the Kremlin seeks to strengthen its grip over areas of Ukraine currently under Russian control.

Kremlin officials say they have distributed around 3.5 million Russian passports in Russian-occupied regions of Ukraine since the onset of the full-scale invasion just over three years ago. Residents are reportedly being forced to apply for Russian passports in order to access basic services such as healthcare and state pensions, while those without Russian documentation face the possibility of harassment and detention.

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The enforced adoption of Russian citizenship is just one of the many tools being employed by the Kremlin to systematically erase all traces of Ukrainian statehood and national identity throughout Russian-occupied Ukraine. Wherever Russian troops advance, local populations are subjected to mass arrests designed to root out any potential dissenters. Those targeted typically include elected officials, military veterans, religious leaders, civil society activists, teachers, journalists, and patriots. Thousands have been abducted in this manner since 2022 and remain unaccounted for, with many thought to be languishing in a network of prisons in Russian-occupied Ukraine and Russia itself.

Those who remain are subjected to terror tactics in conditions that Britain’s The Economist has described as a “totalitarian hell.” All public symbols of Ukrainian statehood and cultural identity are being systematically dismantled. The Ukrainian language is suppressed, while any Christian denominations other than the Russian Orthodox Church face persecution or worse.

Moscow’s efforts to erase Ukrainian identity begin in the classroom. In schools throughout the occupied regions, Ukrainian children are being taught a new Kremlin-approved curriculum that praises Russian imperialism and glorifies the ongoing invasion of Ukraine while demonizing the entire concept of a separate and independent Ukrainian state. Any parents who dare to resist risk losing custody of their children.

The Kremlin is also accused of kidnapping tens of thousands of Ukrainian children from occupied regions and deporting them to Russia, where they are subjected to ideological indoctrination to rob them of their Ukrainian roots and impose an imperial Russian identity. In March 2023, the International Criminal Court in The Hague issued an arrest warrant for Putin due his personal involvement in these mass abductions of Ukrainian children.

The actions of the Russian occupation authorities are entirely in line with the vicious anti-Ukrainian rhetoric coming from Putin himself and other officials in Moscow. Putin has long insisted that Ukrainians are actually Russians (“one people”). Six months prior to the full-scale invasion, he took the highly unusual step of publishing a lengthy history essay that read like a declaration of war against Ukrainian statehood.

As Russian troops prepared to invade in February 2022, Putin sought to justify this act of international aggression by describing Ukraine as “an inalienable part of our own history, culture, and spiritual space.” He has since compared his invasion to the eighteenth century imperial conquests of Russian Czar Peter the Great, and has declared occupied Ukrainian territory to be “Russian forever.”

The Russian establishment has enthusiastically followed Putin’s lead. Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev has stated that “the existence of Ukraine is mortally dangerous for Ukrainians,” while top Putin aide Nikolai Patrushev recently suggested Ukraine may soon “cease to exist.” Meanwhile, poisonous anti-Ukrainian language has become so commonplace in the Kremlin-controlled Russian media that UN investigators believe it may constitute “incitement to genocide.”

This week’s presidential decree threatening to deport Ukrainians from their own homes is the latest reminder that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is no mere border dispute or attempt to address legitimate security concerns. It is a colonial war of the most brutal kind that aims to destroy Ukraine as a state and as a nation. In the heart of Europe and before the watching world, Putin is openly pursuing policies that almost certainly meet the definition of ethnic cleansing and may qualify as genocide.

The grim reality of Russia’s invasion should weigh heavily on the US officials who are currently charged with drawing lines on maps and attempting to create a realistic framework for a possible ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine. While diplomatic compromises and temporary territorial concessions are now clearly inevitable, any future peace deal must also take into account the fate of the millions of Ukrainians who are likely to be left under Russian occupation.

Peter Dickinson is editor of the Atlantic Council’s UkraineAlert service.

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Veeam fixed critical Backup & Replication flaw CVE-2025-23120

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Veeam released security patches for a critical Backup & Replication vulnerability that could let attackers remotely execute code.

Veeam addressed a critical security vulnerability, tracked as CVE-2025-23120 (CVSS score of 9.9), impacting its Backup & Replication software that could lead to remote code execution.

The vulnerability impacts 12.3.0.310 and all earlier version 12 builds, it was fixed with the release of version 12.3.1 (build 12.3.1.1139).

“A vulnerability allowing remote code execution (RCE) by authenticated domain users.” reads the advisory published by the company.

Security researcher Piotr Bazydlo of watchTowr reported the vulnerability. The vulnerability arises from a flawed deserialization handling implemented by Veeam, allowing attackers to bypass its blocklist and exploit missing gadgets to achieve remote code execution.

“This research would never happen if not for my colleague Sina. He insisted that I should have a look at the Veeam deserialization mechanism, and I would have never done this if not him.” wrote watchTowr. “He has also provided me all the knowledge needed for the exploitation, thus I only needed to focus on an easy stuff – gadget discovery.”

Any local user on the Veeam server, or any domain user if the server is domain-joined, can exploit the vulnerability.

Veeam’s patch blocks the identified gadgets, but similar risks remain if new deserialization gadgets are found.

“Given the size of the Veeam codebase, we wouldn’t be surprised if other researchers now find numerous further feasible deserialization gadgets.” concludes watchTowr. “It is hard for us to be positive about this, given the criticality of the solution, combined with the well-known and trodden ground of this solution being targeted by ransomware gangs.”

Backup & Replication

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Pierluigi Paganini

(SecurityAffairs – hacking, Veeam)


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Trump’s energy sector ceasefire could be good news for Putin’s war machine

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US President Donald Trump’s hotly anticipated March 18 call with Russian President Vladimir Putin failed to achieve any major breakthroughs, but it did result in preliminary agreement on a partial ceasefire covering attacks on energy infrastructure. The news was hailed by the White House as a significant step toward a future peace agreement. However, critics have noted that any pause in energy sector attacks may actually benefit Putin while limiting Ukraine’s ability to hinder the Russian war effort.

Putin has so far refused to join Ukraine in accepting a US proposal for a full ceasefire. Instead, during Tuesday’s telephone conversation he agreed to halt attacks on energy infrastructure for a thirty-day period. This appears to be a very calculated concession. It gives Trump something tangible to show for his peacemaker efforts, but at the same time allows Putin to draw out the negotiating process further while continuing efforts to weaken Ukraine militarily and diplomatically.

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Crucially, Russia may have much more to gain than Ukraine from a temporary energy sector ceasefire. While both countries have sought to target energy infrastructure, the timing of the proposed pause in attacks would appear to favor the Kremlin.

Since the first winter of the war, Russia has conducted a series of air offensives targeting Ukraine’s civilian energy infrastructure in a bid to break the country’s will to resist by leaving millions of Ukrainians without access to electricity and heating. These attacks have succeeded in destroying around half of Ukraine’s prewar power-generating capacity, and have resulted in periods of rolling blackouts across the country.

Faced with the unprecedented challenges presented by Russia’s ongoing bombardment, Ukraine has managed to adapt. The country has dramatically enhanced its air defenses since 2022, while the Ukrainian power grid has proved remarkably resilient. Kyiv has also received extensive financial and technical support from international partners, which has proved instrumental in the struggle to keep the lights on.

Seasonal changes are an additional factor shaping Russia’s bombing campaign. Despite multiple large-scale missile and drone attacks in recent months, Ukraine avoided a much feared energy collapse during the winter season. The arrival of spring is now expected to further undermine the effectiveness of Moscow’s energy sector offensive, with higher temperatures in Ukraine reducing demand for electricity, and longer days minimizing the psychological impact of blackouts.

As the Kremlin struggles to destroy the Ukrainian power grid, Ukraine’s own campaign of airstrikes against Russia’s oil and gas industry has steadily accelerated. Ukrainian officials say these attacks are designed to weaken Russia’s wartime economy while also creating logistical headaches for Putin’s army in Ukraine.

The first attacks on Russian refineries took place during the early months of the war. However, Ukraine initially lacked the long-range firepower to mount a sustained air offensive, and was further hamstrung when the country’s international partners imposed restrictions on the use of Western weapons inside Russia.

The Ukrainian authorities responded to these limitations by prioritizing the development and domestic production of long-range drones and missiles. As Ukraine’s air arsenal has expanded, so have attacks on Russia’s vast energy industry. Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries first began making headlines in spring 2024. There has been a further escalation in attacks during the first three months of the current year, reflecting Ukraine’s increased long-range capabilities and growing drone production.

Assessing the scale of the damage caused by these Ukrainian strikes is challenging. Amid tightening wartime censorship, Russia no longer publishes refining figures or other key industry data. Meanwhile, Kremlin officials remain tight-lipped and typically claim that any blazes captured on video are the result of falling debris from intercepted drones. However, according to Reuters data published in early February, Ukrainian drone attacks since the start of 2025 had succeeded in knocking out around ten percent of Russia’s total refining capacity.

The recent uptick in attacks may only be the beginning. Ukraine has ambitious plans for dramatically increased drone production, and is also developing a number of long-range weapons including missile-drone hybrids capable of striking targets deep inside Russia.

On March 15, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced the latest breakthrough for the country’s missile program with the successful deployment of a domestically produced cruise missile. Called the Long Neptune, this Ukrainian cruise missile is adapted from the earlier Neptune model, which was designed for use against warships and was famously responsible for the sinking of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet flagship, the Moskva, in April 2022. With a reported range of around one thousand kilometers, the Long Neptune has the potential to wreak havoc throughout Russia’s energy sector.

This is bad news for Putin, who is heavily dependent on the Russian oil and gas sector to fund and supply his war machine. With Russia’s air defenses already stretched thin in order to cover the front lines of the invasion in Ukraine, Putin now finds himself unable to adequately protect his energy industry from aerial assault. It is therefore hardly surprising that he has now agreed to a mutual pause in attacks that will keep his refineries, pipelines, and export hubs safe for at least a month. Any progress toward peace is certainly welcome, but Putin’s support for Trump’s partial ceasefire should be seen as a pragmatic move rather than an indication of his readiness to end the invasion of Ukraine.

David Kirichenko is an associate research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society.

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The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters.

The Eurasia Center’s mission is to enhance transatlantic cooperation in promoting stability, democratic values and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe and Turkey in the West to the Caucasus, Russia and Central Asia in the East.

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Victims of UCLA Mob Attack Sue to “Hold the Aggressors Accountable”

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In late April 2024, a mob attacked a pro-Palestinian student encampment at the University of California, Los Angeles. Police and campus security stood by and watched the assault for nearly five hours before intervening. Pleas to university officials went nowhere. And the next day police returned, only to violently and unlawfully clear the encampment and arrest protesters. These are the allegations of a group of students and faculty who are suing the people they blame for the attack, law enforcement agencies, and university officials for violating their civil rights.

The lawsuit, filed Thursday in Los Angeles Superior Court, comes as the federal government deploys all of its might to restrict speech on Palestine in the name of eradicating antisemitism on college campuses. The Trump administration has begun arresting and revoking the visas of students and scholars over their advocacy for Palestine. It has also launched a Department of Justice investigation into the University of California system for allowing “an Antisemitic hostile work environment to exist on its campuses.” And this week, the DOJ threw its support behind two Jewish students who are suing UCLA for alleged antisemitism, accusing the school of trying to avoid responsibility in the case, according to legal filings.

The sprawling 96-page complaint, which identifies 20 alleged members of the mob by name, accuses university officials and police of violating their civil rights, carrying out unlawful arrests, firing less lethal munitions at protesters at close range without just cause, as well as negligence for failing to protect students and faculty from violence in late April. Plaintiffs said the mob incident followed a series of “physical attacks, threats of violence, and harassment” against Palestinian, Arab, and Muslim students on or near campus throughout the school year.

“The events at UCLA highlight systemic anti-Palestinian bias and the administration’s failure to uphold its obligation to protect the rights of students and faculty to engage in peaceful protest and expression,” the complaint said. “This action seeks to hold UCLA accountable for its failure to address and prevent Islamophobic, anti-Palestinian and anti-Arab discrimination, its violation of civil rights of all pro-Palestinian protesters — a group comprised of a wide range of people including Jewish people — and to demand systemic changes to ensure the safety and equity of all members of the university community.”

“It’s really important to know UCLA did nothing to stop them on that night.”

The complaint alleges in stark terms the violence that the school allowed against protesters, said attorney Thomas Harvey, who is working on the suit.

“There’s this notion, broadly speaking, in the media, that there’s some kind of violence from the pro-Palestinian protesters,” Harvey said. “In this case, it’s four-plus hours of unmitigated violence is coming from the counter-protesters, whose problem is pro-Palestinian or anti-genocide speech.”

There were multiple police agencies present, but none stopped the attacks on protesters, Harvey added. Officers from the University of California Police Department, Los Angeles Police Department, California Highway Patrol, and private security were present, he said, but none intervened. “It’s really important to know UCLA did nothing to stop them on that night.”

Amid a wave of university protests in solidarity with Palestine, UCLA students set up the encampment in front of Royce Hall in late April to amplify their demands for the school to stop investing in companies and institutions that fund or profit off of Israel’s genocide of Palestinians in Gaza. The encampment organizers also hosted talks and education sessions featuring professors and journalists.

In the days leading up to the attack, Zionist counter-protesters began to disrupt the protest, attempting to break in and sabotage the encampment and setting up a jumbotron and speakers to play on loop the Israeli song “Meni Mamtera,” a children’s tune used by the Israeli military to torture Palestinian captives, the complaint said. When they arrived on the night of April 30, some of the counter-protesters carried fireworks and chemical agents, the plaintiffs allege. 

In the lawsuit, the 32 plaintiffs — a group that includes students, faculty, journalists, legal observers, and community members who showed up in solidarity with the encampment — detail the specific moments in which they allege members of the mob punched, swung metal rods and wooden boards, aimed and shot fireworks, sprayed chemical agents, harassed and sexually assaulted plaintiffs, as campus law enforcement and security stood by. Others recalled the aggressive tactics used by police to dismantle the encampment. Plaintiffs recounted physical injuries, such as broken bones, nerve damage, and bruises. Some were diagnosed from post-traumatic stress disorder and their mental health continues to be affected by the incident, the complaint said.

Among them was Thistle Boosinger, a Taiko drum instructor and lifelong resident of Los Angeles who had grown up visiting UCLA for its museums, sports games, community events, and is a patient of its hospital system. She joined the encampment in solidarity with the demands of students and had volunteered to help hand out masks and other supplies to protesters. During the attack, a member of the mob repeatedly hit Boosinger’s hand with a metal rod, shattering her bones and severing a nerve in her ring finger, the complaint said. 

Her injuries required three unsuccessful surgeries, as she continues to experience reduced mobility and strength in her hand, Boosinger alleges. Due to her injuries, she can no longer teach music.

“I have a right to protest safely and make my voice heard,” Boosinger told The Intercept, “And because of events that transpired with aggressors attacking the encampment — which up until that point was incredibly peaceful and beautiful and inspiring on the inside — because of damages that I sustained emotionally and physically, I felt that it was necessary to hold the aggressors accountable.”

Graeme Blair, a political science professor at UCLA and plaintiff in the suit, said he hopes that during the litigation process attorneys will be able to find more information on who led, organized, and possibly funded the mob attacks on protesters and plan to amend the complaint as more alleged actors are identified.


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Blair was among the faculty members who had volunteered to keep watch at the encampment after students put a call out to professors for help. He arrived on April 30, just as the mob started its violent attack, in which he was sprayed by chemical agents, according to the complaint. He and other faculty immediately sounded the alarm to school officials, including then-Chancellor Gene Block, who, according to Blair, said police were called and that he could do no more. As TV news stations broadcast the attacks, police stood by watching the violence unfold without intervening.

“I was standing just a few feet from these people who were throwing metal barricades and punching and kicking and using their spray and tear gas, and had been shooting fireworks,” Blair recalled to The Intercept. “And it was just a surreal scene because the California Highway Patrol was standing, you know, 100 feet away in a formation and weren’t advancing.”

When police returned on May 2 and began their sweep of the encampment, faculty had formed a human chain around the students. Blair was among the first of dozens to be arrested. In this roundup, officers fired less-lethal munitions at students and struck their legs, the complaint said.

Police again responded to a UCLA encampment with violence on June 10. In one instance, officers shot a protester in the chest with a less-lethal munition, within 10 feet. The student sustained a heart and lung injury, causing him to cough up blood and to be hospitalized, the complaint said.

In the wake of protests following the police killing of George Floyd in 2020, UCLA changed its guidelines to minimize police presence on campus and use deescalation tactics before calling outside law enforcement to campus. The school violated those new guidelines during protests against the war on Gaza, Harvey said, by calling multiple outside law enforcement agencies onto campus early in response to student encampments. “They went through all these protocols in response to the George Floyd uprising, and then they violated them because of pro-Palestinian speech,” Harvey said. 

“Knowing I am a safer target and can provide help in that way, I want to be able to assist in the fight.”

Also at the June 10 encampment was Binyamin Moryosef, a fourth-year student studying English at UCLA. A plaintiff in the case, Moryosef, who is Jewish and is the son of an Israeli immigrant, joined the encampment in solidarity with Palestinians. Officers arrested Moryosef by violently grabbing him without explanation, zip-tying him, and forcing him into a painful position that made it difficult for him to breathe, the complaint said. 

Moryosef said he hoped the lawsuit would help protect the free speech rights of other protesters moving forward amid the federal government’s broader crackdown on free speech rights. He said he wanted to use his privilege of having been born in the U.S., since international students may be more at risk for speaking out.

“Our rights to free speech feel very heavily under attack,” he told The Intercept. “Knowing I am a safer target and can provide help in that way, I want to be able to assist in the fight.”

In response to threats from Trump against universities for pro-Palestine speech — including the revocation of $400 million in federal funding from Columbia University — UCLA announced an initiative last week meant to combat antisemitism. The program has been criticized by Palestinian, Arab, and Muslim students who say their calls for more safety on campus have been ignored. The new lawsuit follows three separate reports from a task force on anti-Palestinian, anti-Muslim, and anti-Arab racism set up by the school last year, which found long-standing harassment and punishment of students and faculty who have advocated for Palestine. The complaint draws heavily from these reports. Blair, one of the plaintiffs, said the university has yet to implement any of the recommendations from the reports. Instead, the school has only tightened protest restrictions throughout the school year, including a ban on face coverings, and last month, the school suspended pro-Palestinian student groups — Students for Justice in Palestine, and Graduate Students for Justice in Palestine at UCLA — after protesting outside the home of a UC regent’s Brentwood home. 

Harvey said plaintiffs were concerned that the school is bowing to external pressure to crack down on free speech in support of Palestine. “We believe that UCLA knows that its students are not violent people, they’re not antisemitic,” Harvey said. “But we’re concerned, as always, that they’re bowing to outside political pressure. And we’re even more concerned now with the Trump administration.”

Boosinger hoped that she and other plaintiffs would find some relief from compensation, but she also wanted the lawsuit to help shift focus back to the initial demands of the encampment. 

“It’s devastating that such a simple message,” Boosinger said, “to end the genocide and to divest UC funds from companies and weapons manufacturers that have stakes in genocide was such a controversial issue.” 

The post Victims of UCLA Mob Attack Sue to “Hold the Aggressors Accountable” appeared first on The Intercept.


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Ethiopia’s Red Sea Aspirations and Eritrea’s Interference in Tigray Heighten War Risks

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Ethiopia’s ambition to secure Red Sea access and Eritrea’s interference in Ethiopia’s internal affairs and a power struggle in Tigray could explode into a wider regional war. 

The threat of war is looming over the Horn of Africa  again. A return to fighting in Tigray is possible and could lead to conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea.

Ethiopia’s ambition to secure access to the Red Sea via ports it lost to Eritrea in the 1990s, alongside Eritrea’s continued interference in Ethiopia’s internal affairs, have led to a dramatic deterioration of the relationship between the countries over the past two yearsThe mobilization of troops along both sides of their shared border highlights the seriousness of the situation.

With the rules-based international order under significant strain, Ethiopia – the world’s most populous landlocked country, with over 120 million people but no coastline – may consider this an opportune moment to be more assertive in its efforts to break out of its ‘geographical prison’.

Having lost two ports, Assab and Massawa, when Eritrea seceded in 1993, Ethiopia believes it has legal and moral grounds for re-establishing access to the Red Sea. Ethiopia also has financial incentives: it incurs about $1.6 billion per year in port fees to Djibouti and sea access could potentially enhance its economic growth by 25-30 per cent.

Addis Ababa thinks Ethiopian attempts to find legal routes to secure this access have failed due to Eritrean intransigence. Frustrated, Ethiopia has resorted to disruptive and aggressive diplomacyEritrea has responded by fuelling proxy conflict within Tigray, Ethiopia’s northernmost state, which is still suffering the aftershocks of the devastating two-year war that ended in 2022. This standoff could result in another bout of deadly conflict.

Tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea have a long and complex history, with key periods of conflict and renewed hostilities. Here’s an overview of when and why tensions have arisen:

1. Eritrean War of Independence (1961–1991)

  • Why? Eritrea was an Italian colony until 1941, then placed under British administration. In 1952, it was federated with Ethiopia, but Emperor Haile Selassie annexed it in 1962, making Eritrea part of Ethiopia.
  • Tensions? Eritrean rebel groups, mainly the Eritrean Liberation Front (ELF) and later the Eritrean People’s Liberation Front (EPLF), fought for independence.
  • Outcome? Eritrea gained independence in 1991 after Ethiopian dictator Mengistu Haile Mariam was overthrown. It became a sovereign state in 1993.

2. Ethiopia-Eritrea Border War (1998–2000)

  • Why? A border dispute over the town of Badme escalated into a full-scale war.
  • Tensions? Both countries accused each other of violating borders. The war led to around 100,000 deaths and massive displacement.
  • Outcome? A peace agreement was signed in 2000 (Algiers Agreement), but Ethiopia refused to implement a 2002 ruling granting Badme to Eritrea. Tensions remained high for years.

3. Cold Peace (2000–2018)

  • Why? Ethiopia continued to control Badme, and Eritrea remained hostile, supporting armed opposition groups in Ethiopia.
  • Tensions? Cross-border skirmishes and proxy conflicts continued, leading to a prolonged state of hostility.
  • Outcome? Relations remained frozen until 2018.

4. 2018 Peace Agreement and Renewed Tensions (2020–Present)

  • Why? In 2018, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed signed a peace deal with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, officially ending the war.
  • Tensions? Cooperation between Ethiopia and Eritrea during the Tigray War (2020-2022) led to new tensions:
    • Eritrean troops entered Tigray, committing alleged war crimes.
    • Ethiopia’s Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) saw Eritrea as an aggressor.
    • Eritrea remained uneasy about Ethiopia’s internal instability and power struggles.
  • Outcome? While official peace remains, recent disputes over Red Sea access and Ethiopian troops near the border have reignited concerns about conflict.

Current Situation (2024–2025)

  • Rising Ethiopian nationalism over Red Sea access has alarmed Eritrea.
  • Eritrea has started military mobilization, fearing Ethiopian aggression.
  • Ethiopia’s internal instability, especially in Tigray and Amhara regions, makes it vulnerable, but it may still seek regional dominance.

Conclusion

Ethiopia and Eritrea have experienced recurring conflicts due to border disputes, nationalism, and regional power struggles. While the 2018 peace deal improved relations, tensions remain, especially with Ethiopia’s recent geopolitical ambitions. The risk of another conflict depends on diplomatic efforts and internal stability in both countries.

Eritrea continues to play a provocative role in Tigray, where the Ethiopian government was allied with Eritrea in a bloody conflict against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), in which an estimated 600,000 peoplewere killed between 2020 and 2022.

While the Ethiopian government and the TPLF signed the Pretoria Agreement to end the war in November 2022, tensions in the region remain high, including between rival factions of the TPLF.

Eritrea is one of the main drivers of the split between a faction loyal to TPLF chairman Debretsion Gebremichael (TPLF-D) and those around his former deputy Getachew Reda (TPLF-G).

The Pretoria Agreement mandated the establishment of an interim administration, and Getachew was appointed its president in early 2023, despite commanding minimal support within the TPLF’s rank and file. Getachew has accused his former colleagues of colluding with Eritrea. The federal government shares this view.

The crisis risks escalating beyond Tigray into war between Ethiopia and Eritrea, with spillover in Sudan and across the region.

The Ethiopian federal government believes the TPLF-D’s objective is to unseat Getachew and seize the contested Western Tigray area by force. It regards this possibility as a grave security threat that would effectively terminate the Pretoria Agreement.

Tigrayan fighters are also playing a significant role in supporting the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) against the Rapid Support Force (RSF) in neighbouring Sudan, where Eritrea also supports the SAF.

  The Ethiopian federal government feels threatened by the presence of Tigrayan forces in Western Tigray, a disputed border area with Sudan. Moreover, credible reports suggest that Eritrea has secretly discussed a tactical alliance with elements of the TPLF-D, which may seek Eritrean support should the federal government intervene to prevent them from toppling Getachew.

Eritrea, in turn, aims to leverage this situation to undermine Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s ambitions for sea access by supporting his domestic adversaries. The risk of conflict is high.

Ethiopia could also support Red Sea maritime security and strengthen regional stability. At the same time, Ethiopia should continue exploring additional alternative sea access routes in the region to its growing import and export demand, notably through Somalia and Somaliland, in collaboration with Mogadishu and Hargeisa.

A peaceful resolution with Eritrea would also create political space for the Ethiopian government to manage its internal tensionsIn Tigray, the federal government faces a difficult choice between the TPLF-D and the TPLF-GGetachew is considered dependable by the government but lacks the authority and influence to run Tigray. In contrast, the TPLF-D is seen as less reliable but has a well-equipped infrastructure to administer the region and effectively control Tigrayan security forces.

As a compromise, the federal government could consider appointing a suitable candidate to replace Getachew, with a primary mission to normalize life in Tigray, facilitate the return of IDPs, implement disarmament, demobilization and reintegration, put a halt to illegal gold mining and, most notably, prepare the ground for regional elections. Currently, Tigray does not have representatives in Ethiopia’s bicameral parliament or representation in the Federal government, which should change as soon as possible.

To prevent conflict, it is imperative to recognize Ethiopia’s legitimate right to reliable sea access and Eritrea’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Recent developments have heightened concerns about potential conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea, particularly due to instability in Ethiopia’s Tigray region. A dissident faction of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has seized control of parts of Mekelle and Adigrat, raising fears of renewed civil war that could draw in Eritrea. 

Eritrea has responded by mobilizing its military nationwide, while Ethiopia has deployed troops near the Eritrean border. These actions have led to increased tensions, with experts warning of the potential for a regional conflict that could destabilize the Horn of Africa. 

However, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has publicly ruled out war with Eritrea over issues such as Red Sea access, emphasizing a commitment to peaceful dialogue. 

This stance suggests that, despite the heightened tensions, both governments may seek to avoid direct military confrontation.

In summary, while the probability of conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea has increased due to recent events, efforts by leaders like Prime Minister Abiy to pursue peaceful resolutions may help mitigate the risk of war.


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Atupele Muluzi’s Path to the Presidency: Opportunities and Challenges in Malawi’s 2025 Election”

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United Democratic Front (UDF) leader Atupele Muluzi has raised alarm over what he describes as a growing threat to democracy in Malawi, warning that the country is on a dangerous path toward autocratic rule and internal decay.

Speaking at the Platform for African Democrats (PAD) conference Muluzi told that Malawi is experiencing a rollback of democratic principles amid rising global instability and weakening international cooperation.

“We are witnessing a dangerous shift: a retreat from the principles that have long underpinned democratic governance,” Muluzi said. “Truth itself has become a casualty, with disinformation distorting the foundations of informed political discourse.”

Muluzi pointed to the consolidation of power by autocratic regimes across the continent, adding that such trends have emboldened leaders who undermine democracy through coercion rather than consent. He linked these regional developments to Malawi, accusing the current administration of using undemocratic tactics to cling to power.

Muluzi did not provide specific details on the alleged tactics but urged Malawians to resist any attempts to subvert democratic norms.

The UDF president also highlighted the impact of shrinking international support, citing the scaling back of donor agencies such as USAID. He warned that Africa is being left to tackle economic stagnation, agricultural insecurity, corruption, and poor governance largely on its own.

He further accused several African governments of falling prey to kleptocracy, describing them as “government by the corrupt, for the corrupt,” where leaders prioritize personal enrichment over public service.

His remarks come amid growing criticism of the government over its handling of the economy, persistent corruption allegations, and perceived failures to address public concerns on unemployment, inflation, and service delivery.

The warning from Muluzi, a former cabinet minister and son of Malawi’s second president Bakili Muluzi, is expected to heighten political tensions as the country edges closer to the next election cycle.

Atupele Muluzi, leader of the United Democratic Front (UDF) and former cabinet minister, has recently voiced concerns regarding Malawi’s democratic trajectory under the current administration. He alleges that government officials threatened him with arrest following his critical remarks during a radio interview, Muluzi declared, “Our democracy must be defended, and I will not back down. If speaking the truth is a crime, then bring it on!” 

Muluzi’s criticisms encompass several areas:

  • Economic Management: He has highlighted the government’s handling of the economy, pointing to issues such as rising unemployment and inflation. 
  • Corruption: Muluzi has accused the administration of persistent corruption and failing to address public concerns effectively. 
  • Intimidation of Opposition: He contends that the government employs intimidation tactics to silence dissenting voices, thereby undermining democratic principles. 

In response, Minister of Home Affairs and Internal Security, Ezekiel Ching’oma, challenged Muluzi to provide evidence of the alleged threats, questioning the legitimacy of his claims. 

These developments have sparked debates about the state of democracy in Malawi, with concerns over shrinking democratic space and the government’s commitment to upholding democratic values.

democratic system, while resilient, faces several significant challenges:

Corruption: Corruption remains a pervasive issue, affecting all levels of government. High-profile scandals, such as the “Cashgate” affair in 2013, have undermined public trust and diverted resources from essential services. Lower-level officials often feel pressured to tolerate corrupt behavior from their superiors, further entrenching the problem. 

Economic Instability: Malawi’s economy is characterized by high inflation, significant public debt, and foreign exchange shortages. In February 2025, the government reduced its economic growth forecast from 4.0% to 3.2%, prompting widespread protests over rising living costs. These economic challenges strain the government’s capacity to deliver public services effectively, impacting citizens’ daily lives. 

Human Rights Concerns: Issues such as discrimination and violence against women, minority groups, and people with albinism persist. Additionally, prison conditions remain harsh, with overcrowding and inadequate facilities posing serious threats to inmates’ well-being. 

Public Sector Challenges: Efforts to reform the public sector face significant obstacles, including mismanagement and a lack of accountability. The government’s struggle to implement effective reforms has led to public frustration over poor services and unresponsive local governance. 

Despite these challenges, Malawi’s democratic institutions have shown resilience. The judiciary and civil society have played crucial roles in countering democratic backsliding, and public support for democracy remains robust. Surveys indicate that a majority of Malawians prefer democratic governance and reject authoritarian alternatives. 

Atupele Muluzi, leader of the United Democratic Front (UDF), has declared his intention to run in Malawi’s 2025 presidential election. In a recent statement, he affirmed, “I will be on the ballot, and Malawians will vote for me as President.” Muluzi has outlined a comprehensive agenda focusing on key areas such as food security, energy development, export promotion, education reform, tourism revitalization, and healthcare. He emphasized, “Above all, Malawi should have food.” 

The UDF has officially endorsed Muluzi’s candidacy for the upcoming elections. Party officials have stated, “We will not prevent anyone from challenging Atupele’s candidature, as the UDF is a democratic party that values individual ambitions.

Muluzi has also addressed concerns regarding his father’s influence on his political career, asserting his independence and outlining his unique vision for Malawi’s future. He stated, “I am my own man,” emphasizing his commitment to progressive and forward-looking politics aimed at finding solutions to the nation’s challenges. 

His political experience includes serving as Minister of Natural Resources, Energy, and Mining; Minister of Home Affairs and Internal Security; and Minister of Lands, Housing, and Urban Development. These roles have contributed to his reputation as a moderate politician with no record of corruption, appealing to a broad spectrum of the electorate. 

Overall, Muluzi’s declared candidacy and his outlined policy agenda underscore his ongoing political ambitions and commitment to addressing Malawi’s pressing issues.

Potential supporters of Atupele Muluzi in his presidential campaign could include:

  1. United Democratic Front (UDF) Members and Supporters:
  2. As the leader of the UDF and the party’s officially endorsed candidate, Muluzi will naturally gain support from party members, local leaders, and the party’s traditional voter base, particularly in the southern region of Malawi.
  3. Young Voters and Reform Advocates:
  4. Muluzi has often portrayed himself as a fresh and progressive leader. His focus on issues like education reform, energy development, and economic growth may appeal to young voters and those seeking innovative leadership.
  5. Business and Agricultural Sector Stakeholders:
  6. His emphasis on food security, export promotion, and energy development is likely to attract support from farmers, business owners, and investors who see opportunities in a more stable and productive economy.
  7. Moderate and Undecided Voters:
  8. Muluzi’s reputation as a moderate politician with no major corruption scandals enhances his appeal to voters disillusioned with the current political landscape and seeking honest leadership.
  9. Regional and Traditional Leaders:
  10. As the son of former President Bakili Muluzi, Atupele maintains a degree of influence in areas where his family has historical ties, particularly in the south.
  11. Diaspora Support:
  12. Malawians living abroad who value economic development, transparent governance, and political stability may also support Muluzi’s vision for reform.

To strengthen his chances, Muluzi could form alliances with smaller parties, civil society groups, and community leaders who align with his agenda.

actors Working in Muluzi’s Favor:

  1. Regional Support:
  2. Muluzi has a strong political base in the southern region, especially among UDF loyalists. The south has traditionally been a UDF stronghold, giving him a solid starting point.
  3. Moderate Image:
  4. As a politician with no major corruption allegations, Muluzi is seen as a moderate leader, which could appeal to voters looking for clean governance.
  5. Youth and Fresh Perspective:
  6. His emphasis on economic reforms, youth empowerment, and food security may resonate with younger voters seeking change.
  7. Coalition Potential:
  8. Muluzi’s political flexibility may allow him to form alliances with smaller parties and independent candidates, broadening his appeal.

Challenges for Muluzi:

  1. Strong Competition:
  2. The 2025 election is likely to feature major rivals like incumbent President Lazarus Chakwera and former President Peter Mutharika. Both have loyal followings and established party machinery.
  3. Limited Nationwide Support:
  4. While the UDF is strong in the south, it lacks substantial support in central and northern regions, which are predominantly supportive of the Malawi Congress Party (MCP) and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).
  5. Economic Challenges:
  6. Malawians are frustrated with rising inflation, unemployment, and other economic hardships. Muluzi will need to present convincing economic solutions to gain wider support.
  7. Family Legacy Concerns:
  8. Despite asserting his independence, some voters may still associate him with his father, Bakili Muluzi, whose presidency faced corruption allegations.

Muluzi’s best chance would involve consolidating southern support, appealing to young and moderate voters, and forming strategic alliances. However, he will face a tough battle against well-established opponents. His ability to present a clear, actionable vision for economic recovery and good governance will determine his success.


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