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Amazon workers in Saudi Arabia say company has failed to compensate many for labor abuses

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Amazon, the world’s second-largest company, has not yet compensated dozens of migrant laborers forced to pay hefty recruitment fees to secure work at its warehouses in Saudi Arabia, according to new reporting by The Guardian.

The online retail giant announced in February that it had paid $1.9 million in reimbursements to more than 700 current and former overseas workers. The payments came after the recruitment fees and other unfair practices were exposed by Trafficking Inc., a joint investigation by ICIJ, The Guardian, NBC News and Arab Reporters for Investigative Journalism.

But 33 of 44 Amazon contract workers interviewed by The Guardian since the announcement said they have not been reimbursed, despite believing they are eligible to be.

Several of those workers from Nepal, some of whom still work in Amazon’s Saudi operations, told The Guardian they felt doubly mistreated by the company.

“In Saudi, many people asked questions about our recruitment fees. Amazon and other organizations also asked questions. But they haven’t reimbursed money yet,” Hari Prasad Mudbari said. “Now I feel like they played a game against me.”

The Nepali laborer reportedly paid roughly $1,500 in recruiting fees and other costs to land a job as a contract worker at an Amazon warehouse in Saudi Arabia. Other workers from Nepal shared similar stories with The Guardian, saying they had lost hope of getting their money after being asked by Amazon staffers and others about the fees, only to return home without further information.

“If Amazon wanted to give us the money back, they could have done it right away,” said Santosh Biswakarma, whose recruiting costs amounted to around $1,700, according to The Guardian. “It’s a big, rich company. They could do it immediately.”

In a written statement to The Guardian, Amazon said it had arranged reimbursements for another 151 workers since its announcement in February and that it was continuing to work to identify and pay workers who qualify for compensation.

“These are complex processes that take time, and we’re doing our best to expedite reimbursement,” an Amazon spokesperson said in the statement. “We’re also grateful to the workers who have participated throughout this process and shared their experiences.”

The spokesperson said that the process had been complicated by many workers returning to Nepal and, in some cases, changing their phone numbers or home addresses. The Guardian noted it had tracked down scores of workers through Facebook and referrals from their co-workers.

‘Give the money back’

As part of Trafficking Inc., ICIJ and its media partners interviewed more than 50 migrant laborers who said they had been duped by recruiting agencies in Nepal and then suffered under poor working conditions at Amazon warehouses in Saudi Arabia. The workers said they had paid fees ranging from roughly $830 to $2,300 to the agencies for the jobs — amounts far exceeding what’s allowed by Nepal’s government and running afoul of American and United Nations standards.

Most of the workers said recruiters misled them about the terms of their employment by falsely promising they would work directly for Amazon. Instead, they said, they ended up employed by Saudi labor supply firms that placed them in short-term contract jobs at Amazon warehouses, then siphoned away their wages.

In response to Trafficking Inc. and a separate investigation by the human rights group Amnesty International, Amazon said it was “deeply concerned” that some of its contract workers in Saudi Arabia were not treated with “the dignity and respect they deserve.”

According to The Guardian, the company worked with a human rights consulting group based in London, Impactt, to arrange the refunds for eligible workers from Nepal, India, Pakistan and other countries.

But current and former workers who received reimbursements told The Guardian they thought the formula was broken because it ignored an important factor: nearly all the workers had to borrow money at exorbitant interest rates — some as high as 55% annually — to cover the recruitment fees.

One worker refunded by Amazon said he paid nearly $2,570 to pay off a $1,700 loan with a 36% interest rate. And yet, he received little more than $1,600, according to an Impactt document he shared with The Guardian. “It’s not full compensation,” he said.

The Amazon spokesperson told The Guardian that the company did take into account the interest workers paid on their loans when determining their reimbursements.

Momtaj Mansur, a Nepali worker who was featured in Trafficking Inc., was among the workers reimbursed by Amazon, according to The Guardian.

A Nepali man in a white t-shirt sits on the steps of his house, looking in to the camera
Former Amazon worker Momtaj Mansur outside his home in Nepal. Image: Pramod Acharya

In 2023, Mansur told ICIJ he had “lost everything” after traveling from his home in Kathmandu to Riyadh, the Saudi capital, for what he thought was a job working directly at Amazon. Once there, he learned a third-party firm employed him and had placed him in a contract position at an Amazon warehouse. He was later fired without warning, leaving him to languish in a squalid bunkhouse.

Mansur, now back home in Nepal, told The Guardian that while he was pleased to receive the reimbursement, he had already suffered when moneylenders pressured his family to repay his loans. He said that Amazon should “give the money back to all other workers.”

“Wherever they work, whichever country they’re from, whatever work they do, if they’ve paid unnecessary fees to get a job, repay their money,” he said.

This story is based on reporting by Pramod Acharya and Michael Hudson for The Guardian. Read the full story here


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How to craft a comprehensive data cleanliness policy

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Practicing good data hygiene is critical for today’s businesses. With everything from operational efficiency to cybersecurity readiness relying on the integrity of stored data, having confidence in your organization’s data cleanliness policy is essential.

But what does this involve, and how can you ensure your data cleanliness policy checks the right boxes? Luckily, there are practical steps you can follow to ensure data accuracy while mitigating the security and compliance risks that come with poor data hygiene.

Understanding the 6 dimensions of data cleanliness

It doesn’t matter where your company data is sourced — without addressing its quality and accuracy, you won’t be able to rely on it. To create the right data cleanliness policy, you’ll need to understand its different dimensions. These include:

  • Accuracy: Identifies to what extent data can be trusted and is free from errors. This requires specific validation protocols and compliance with data collection standards.
  • Completeness: Signifies whether or not collected data provides clear answers to certain questions. It involves evaluating any missing data attributes and recognizing any apparent gaps.
  • Consistency: Checks that data is properly mirrored when stored in multiple databases and represented by a percentage of matched values.
  • Validity: Refers to data adherence against predefined rules or formats. It helps eliminate the violation of logical constraints or data type restrictions.
  • Uniqueness: Makes sure all data types reference the same units of measure or support formats to remove the possibility of information overlapping or duplication across data sets.
  • Timeliness: Represents the degree to which data remains up-to-date. This ensures data is accessible when it’s required so it can be used properly.

Once you have a grasp on these six core elements, you’re ready to move forward with crafting your data cleanliness policy.

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Step 1: Define policy scope and objectives

The first step to take when creating a data cleanliness policy is to define all appropriate business objectives. Any specific data sets or systems and the intended use of the information within them should be clearly outlined.

This step also involves considering often-overlooked data, including unused software logs, outdated emails and former customer records. If this information is forgotten about, it can lead to security issues down the road when they are left in unsecured locations.

Step 2: Classify data assets

With your policy scope defined, you’ll need to take inventory of all relevant data sources. Data assets can include various databases spread across multi-cloud environments, locally stored spreadsheets or any other areas where data is stored.

Classifying all data assets is another way to minimize forgotten data from compiling and creating high-value targets for cyber criminals. During this process, you’ll also want to categorize data based on its relative sensitivity or regulatory requirements. This will make it easier to implement the right access controls and data retention policies.

Step 3: Establish data quality standards

The data quality standards you develop for your policy should be measurable and easy to understand. To achieve this, you’ll need to lay out specific criteria for each data type, including the acceptable formats data should be in and any validation rules you have in place.

With your metrics in place, you’ll be able to regularly monitor their performance over time. Many times, regulatory requirements will stipulate that data needs to meet certain accuracy and completeness benchmarks. Having these trackable metrics in place provides the transparency needed to ensure these regulations are continuously being met.

Step 4: Assign roles and responsibilities

Establishing clear accountabilities is essential when managing organizational data. Your data cleanliness policy should define the various roles in your organization, including specifying who can access data and what levels of permission they have.

Controlling the amount of individuals who can access, modify or delete data is one of the most important elements of ensuring data integrity over the long term. It helps you to mitigate the danger of insider threats as well as establish clear lines of accountability if and when anomalies are located in data sets.

It is also common to make use of a data governance team that can help to implement and enforce various policy initiatives. These teams can reduce the likelihood of data inconsistency and help support various data security protocols in place.

Step 5: Implement data cleansing procedures

In the event that data issues are discovered, your policy should also cover necessary data correction procedures. This can include standardization, normalization or deduplication of data stored across systems.

Another supporting element of this process is having clear data retention and disposal policies in place. This helps to reinforce best practices when it comes to data lifecycle management. It also minimizes a digital attack surface, making it less likely that sensitive information is left in a vulnerable storage state, and helps to minimize damages in the event of a successful cyberattack.

Maintain healthier organizational data

Being able to rely on the accuracy and consistency of your company data is critical. Not only does data integrity play an important factor in improving the value of your technology investments, but it also helps to strengthen your cybersecurity posture.

By following the steps above, you’ll be able to draft a data cleanliness policy that allows you to maintain healthier organizational data while extracting its full value.

The post How to craft a comprehensive data cleanliness policy appeared first on Security Intelligence.


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Securing a Third Term: Strategies, Risks, and Implications for Zimbabwe’s Democracy

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There has been significant resistance to extending the term of President Emmerson Mnangagwa beyond 2028 within Zimbabwe’s ruling Zanu PF party. Mnangagwa, who has said repeatedly that he does not intend to extend his presidency beyond two terms, is facing internal party divisions, with some advocating for a Constitutional amendment to remove term limits.

In October this year Zanu PF Annual People’s Conference in Bulawayo has passed a resolution to perpetuate President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s rule beyond 2028 when his constitutionally permissible two terms come to an end.

While Mnangagwa has several paths to securing a third term, each scenario comes with significant risks, including domestic unrest, weakened democratic institutions, and international isolation. The approach he chooses will depend on the political landscape, the strength of opposition forces, and his ability to consolidate power within ZANU-PF and state institutions.

The ED2030 slogan has not only left ordinary Zimbabweans on the edge but has also divided opinion among party activists. The move, however, is reportedly opposed by the military and war veterans.

The 21st annual conference of Zanu PF has started with a Politburo meeting at the party headquarters, with discussions on leadership issues and possible term extensions expected.

President Emmerson Mnangagwa of Zimbabwe, who secured his second term in the 2023 elections, is constitutionally limited to two five-year terms. Despite this, there is growing speculation and internal lobbying within the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) for him to pursue a third term.

  • For Mnangagwa to seek a third term, constitutional changes would be necessary. This would involve repealing or altering the current two-term limit, a process that requires significant political maneuvering and legislative approval. Notably, ZANU-PF has passed resolutions supporting the extension of presidential terms, indicating a willingness to pursue such amendments. 
  • Party Support: Mnangagwa’s inner circle is actively lobbying for a third term, reflecting internal party dynamics favoring the extension of his presidency. 

Reasons Behind the Push for a Third Term:

  • Power Consolidation: Mnangagwa’s tenure has been marked by efforts to consolidate power, and a third term would further entrench his leadership and the dominance of ZANU-PF. This continuation could suppress emerging opposition and maintain the status quo.
  • Economic and Political Stability: Extending Mnangagwa’s presidency could provide continuity, which they believe is essential for implementing long-term economic policies and maintaining political stability.
  • Personal Ambitions and Legacy: Like many long-serving leaders, Mnangagwa may be driven by a desire to leave a lasting legacy, viewing a prolonged tenure as an opportunity to shape Zimbabwe’s future according to his vision.

Challenges and Considerations:

  • Constitutional Legitimacy: Amending the constitution to allow a third term could face legal challenges and would likely require a national referendum, posing significant hurdles. 
  • Public Opinion: There is potential for public resistance, as citizens may view the move as undermining democratic principles, leading to civil unrest or increased support for opposition movements.
  • International Relations: Pursuing a third term could attract criticism from the international community, potentially resulting in diplomatic isolation or economic sanctions, further impacting Zimbabwe’s economy.

In conclusion, while there is a concerted effort within ZANU-PF to facilitate President Mnangagwa’s bid for a third term, significant constitutional, legal, and societal obstacles remain. The success of such a bid would depend on navigating these challenges and gauging the broader implications for Zimbabwe’s democratic institutions and international standing.

f President Emmerson Mnangagwa were to pursue and secure a third term in office, the move could have profound and potentially negative implications for democracy in Zimbabwe:

1. Erosion of Constitutionalism

  • Weakening of Term Limits: Allowing Mnangagwa to extend his presidency beyond the constitutional two-term limit would undermine the principle of term limits, a key safeguard against authoritarianism. This could set a precedent for future leaders to manipulate the constitution for personal gain.
  • Loss of Credibility: The constitution would lose its integrity as a foundational document if amendments are perceived as serving the interests of the ruling elite rather than the public good.

2. Concentration of Power

  • Strengthened Executive Authority: A third term would further consolidate power in the executive branch, marginalizing other institutions like the judiciary and parliament.
  • Suppression of Opposition: The move would likely be accompanied by increased repression of opposition parties and dissenting voices to secure Mnangagwa’s continued rule.

3. Decline in Electoral Integrity

  • Elections as Formalities: With term limits removed, elections could become symbolic exercises rather than genuine democratic contests, as the ruling party tightens its grip on the electoral process.
  • Public Disillusionment: Citizens may lose faith in the electoral system, viewing it as rigged to favor the incumbent, leading to voter apathy or unrest.

4. Increased Risk of Authoritarianism

  • Dynastic Tendencies: Prolonged rule by Mnangagwa could foster a culture of “strongman politics,” reducing Zimbabwe’s chances of transitioning to a pluralistic and inclusive political system.
  • Suppression of Civil Liberties: The government might resort to more draconian measures to maintain control, further curtailing freedoms of speech, assembly, and the press.

5. Weakening of Democratic Institutions

  • Partisan Institutions: Key state institutions, including the judiciary and electoral bodies, could become increasingly partisan, eroding their independence and accountability.
  • Rule of Law Undermined: Constitutional amendments driven by personal or political motives could diminish the rule of law, making it subservient to political expediency.

6. Potential for Civil Unrest

  • Public Backlash: Moves to extend Mnangagwa’s rule could provoke widespread protests, particularly among younger and urban populations disillusioned with the lack of democratic progress.
  • Heightened Political Tensions: An extended presidency might exacerbate divisions within the country, including within ZANU-PF, where rival factions may challenge Mnangagwa’s authority.

7. Impact on International Relations

  • Loss of Credibility Abroad: Zimbabwe’s reputation as a democratic state would suffer, potentially leading to greater isolation from Western democracies and international organizations.
  • Economic Consequences: Sanctions and reduced foreign investment could follow, further weakening the country’s struggling economy and exacerbating public dissatisfaction.

8. Precedent for the Region

  • Ripple Effects in Southern Africa: If Mnangagwa succeeds in extending his term, it could embolden other leaders in the region to seek similar changes, undermining democratic norms across Southern Africa.

Conclusion

Pursuing a third term would likely accelerate the erosion of democratic principles in Zimbabwe, entrench authoritarian practices, and deepen public distrust in governance. While it might solidify Mnangagwa’s control in the short term, it risks long-term instability, economic decline, and the further marginalization of Zimbabwe on the global stage.

Several foreign actors may have vested interests in Emmerson Mnangagwa securing a third term in office. These interests are shaped by geopolitical considerations, economic partnerships, and regional dynamics:

1. China

  • Economic Interests:
    • China has significant investments in Zimbabwe, particularly in mining, infrastructure, and agriculture. Mnangagwa’s continued leadership ensures policy continuity and a favorable environment for Chinese enterprises.
    • Zimbabwe’s rich natural resources, such as platinum and lithium, are critical to China’s strategic economic goals, including its global supply chains.
  • Strategic Partnership:
    • Beijing values Mnangagwa’s support for its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and his government’s alignment with China’s development model, which prioritizes state-led growth over Western-style liberal democracy.

2. Russia

  • Military and Resource Ties:
    • Russia has developed close ties with Zimbabwe in areas like military cooperation and resource extraction, including mining. Mnangagwa’s leadership provides Moscow with a stable partner to expand its influence in Southern Africa.
  • Political Alignment:
    • Zimbabwe’s alignment with Russia on key international issues, including support for Russia in the United Nations, makes Mnangagwa’s continued rule advantageous for Moscow.

3. South Africa

  • Regional Stability:
    • As Zimbabwe’s neighbor and largest trading partner, South Africa has a vested interest in stability. Mnangagwa’s leadership, while controversial, might be viewed as less destabilizing compared to a potential leadership vacuum or a contested transition.
  • Migration Concerns:
    • South Africa already faces challenges from Zimbabwean migrants fleeing economic hardships. A power struggle or instability could exacerbate migration pressures, something Pretoria seeks to avoid.

4. United Arab Emirates (UAE)

  • Resource Access:
    • The UAE has shown interest in Zimbabwe’s gold and other natural resources. Mnangagwa’s government has facilitated agreements that allow UAE companies to operate in Zimbabwe, creating a mutually beneficial relationship.
  • Political Influence:
    • The UAE may prefer a leader like Mnangagwa who can maintain centralized control, ensuring predictability for its business ventures.

5. African Union (AU) and Southern African Development Community (SADC)

  • Avoiding Precedents of Instability:
    • Both the AU and SADC prioritize stability and may support Mnangagwa as a means of avoiding potential conflict or political turmoil in Zimbabwe, which could destabilize the region.

6. Emerging Actors: India and Turkey

  • Expanding Influence:
    • Both India and Turkey are seeking to deepen their presence in Africa. Mnangagwa’s continued leadership offers an opportunity to build on existing relationships and expand their economic and diplomatic footprints in Zimbabwe.

Key Motivations of Foreign Actors

  • Economic Gain: Access to Zimbabwe’s abundant natural resources, including gold, platinum, and lithium.
  • Geopolitical Leverage: Strengthening alliances in Africa to counter Western influence.
  • Stability Over Democracy: Prioritizing stable, predictable governance over democratic reforms to protect investments and regional interests.

Conclusion

While Western democracies may view a third term for Mnangagwa as a setback for democracy, actors like China, Russia, and the UAE likely see it as an opportunity to maintain favorable relations and secure their economic and strategic interests in Zimbabwe. Regional players like South Africa may prioritize stability, even if it comes at the expense of democratic principles.

Securing a third term for President Emmerson Mnangagwa in Zimbabwe would likely require strategic political maneuvering, constitutional changes, and suppression of opposition. Below are potential scenarios through which Mnangagwa might secure a third term:

1. Constitutional Amendment

  • Legal Changes:
    • The ruling ZANU-PF party could push for an amendment to the constitution to remove or extend the presidential term limits.
    • With ZANU-PF’s parliamentary majority, they could achieve the two-thirds vote required to pass such an amendment.
  • Referendum Option:
    • Alternatively, the government could call for a national referendum, presenting the amendment as necessary for “stability” or “continuity.”

Challenges:

  • Resistance from opposition parties and civil society.
  • Risk of backlash from the international community, which may impose sanctions or withdraw support.

2. Judicial Intervention

  • Court Ruling on Term Limits:
    • Mnangagwa could leverage the judiciary to interpret term limits in a way that allows him to run again, possibly arguing that his first term under the new constitution (post-2018) doesn’t count toward the limit.
  • Influence Over Judiciary:
    • Zimbabwe’s judiciary has faced accusations of partisanship, and Mnangagwa’s administration could use this to its advantage.

Challenges:

  • Loss of public trust in judicial independence.
  • Potential for civil unrest if the public perceives the ruling as illegitimate.

3. ZANU-PF Internal Consolidation

  • Party Endorsement:
    • Mnangagwa could secure ZANU-PF’s internal support by rallying key factions, sidelining rivals, and promising benefits to influential party members.
  • Crushing Dissent:
    • Any internal opposition, such as factions loyal to Vice President Constantino Chiwenga, could be suppressed through political or legal means.

Challenges:

  • Risk of factional splits within ZANU-PF.
  • Weakened internal unity could lead to instability.

4. Manipulation of Electoral Processes

  • Election Engineering:
    • The regime could manipulate the electoral process, ensuring Mnangagwa’s victory regardless of constitutional constraints.
    • Tactics could include voter intimidation, suppression of opposition campaigns, and control over electoral commissions.
  • Post-Election Legitimization:
    • Following the election, ZANU-PF could argue that the “will of the people” supersedes constitutional term limits.

Challenges:

  • Loss of credibility in the electoral system.
  • Risk of mass protests or violent backlash from opposition supporters.

5. National Emergency or Crisis Justification

  • State of Emergency:
    • Mnangagwa could declare a national emergency, citing economic challenges, political unrest, or foreign interference, to justify extending his term without elections.
  • Delaying Elections:
    • Using a crisis as a pretext, elections could be postponed indefinitely, allowing Mnangagwa to remain in power.

Challenges:

  • Requires significant control over security forces and public perception.
  • Could lead to international condemnation and domestic unrest.

6. International Support or Neutralization of Opposition

  • Foreign Backing:
    • Leveraging relationships with key international allies like China, Russia, or South Africa to legitimize his continued rule.
  • Co-Opting Opposition:
    • Weakening or dividing the opposition through financial inducements, arrests, or propaganda campaigns.

Challenges:

  • Maintaining foreign support while avoiding alienation from Western powers and international organizations.

7. Popular Campaign for Continuity

  • Public Relations Effort:
    • Launching a campaign to portray Mnangagwa as the indispensable leader who can maintain stability and economic progress.
    • Mobilizing grassroots support through ZANU-PF structures and allied organizations.

Challenges:

  • Convincing a population increasingly disillusioned by economic hardships.

Risk of public resistance or opposition-led counter-campaigns.


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Five things Russia’s invasion has taught the world about Ukraine

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The war unleashed by Russia almost three years ago in Ukraine is rightly recognized as one of the great crimes of the twenty-first century. Understandably, little attention has been paid so far to the impact the conflict is having on Ukraine’s international image. And yet amid the trauma and horror of Russia’s invasion, there are growing signs that the unprecedented media spotlight on Ukraine since 2022 is gradually helping to transform global perceptions of the country. As a result, Ukraine is now finally emerging from a prolonged period of international obscurity that has hindered the country’s progress for centuries.

International ignorance of Ukraine has been a feature since long before the country regained independence in 1991. Following the Soviet collapse, little was done to address this lack of outside awareness or strengthen Ukraine’s national brand in the global arena. This low profile helped set the stage for Russia’s disinformation efforts, with foreign audiences often prepared to believe all manner of outlandish lies about a country that was otherwise unknown to them. Thanks to the recent media focus on Ukraine, Kremlin propagandists are now finding that their distortions are not so readily accepted. This is an ongoing process, but it is already possible to identify a number of important facts about Ukraine that have taken root in the international consciousness since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion.

1. Ukraine is not Russia

The fact that Ukraine is not Russia may seem insultingly obvious when viewed from a Ukrainian perspective, but in reality this was the fundamental image problem facing the country in 2022. Indeed, it is no coincidence that on the eve of the full-scale invasion, Vladimir Putin published an entire essay denying the legitimacy of a separate Ukrainian state on the grounds that Ukrainians are actually Russians (“one people”).

Putin did not invent this narrative of Ukraine denial himself. His predecessors have been insisting that Ukraine is an inalienable part of Russia since at least the eighteenth century, and have ruthlessly manipulated the historical record to support their arguments. Throughout the Tsarist and Soviet eras, anyone attempting to counter this Great Russian narrative or highlight Ukraine’s long statehood struggle was treated as a dangerous heretic subject to the harshest of punishments.

For generations, Russia was able to impose its imperial propaganda on international audiences, with Ukrainians silenced and Ukraine misleadingly portrayed as an intrinsic part of Russia’s own historical heartlands. It was therefore understandable that when an independent Ukraine appeared on the map in 1991, many had trouble distinguishing it from Russia. This created much confusion and went some way to legitimizing subsequent Russian attempts to reassert its authority over Ukraine.

The full-scale invasion has changed all that. Since February 2022, international perceptions of the relationship between Russia and Ukraine have undergone a radical transformation as global audiences have witnessed the ferocity of the Russian attack and the determination of Ukraine’s national defense. The war unleashed by Vladimir Putin has killed hundreds of thousands and shattered millions of lives; it has also finally buried the Kremlin myth of Russians and Ukrainians as “one people.” As the invasion approaches the three-year mark, it is now safe to say that anyone who continues to insist on the indivisibility of Russia and Ukraine is either acting in bad faith, or is so stunningly ignorant that their opinion can be disregarded.

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2. Ukraine is huge

Prewar Ukraine’s low international profile encouraged many to imagine the country as an obscure and irrelevant statelet whose fate mattered little to the wider world. Meanwhile, very few people seemed to appreciate that Ukraine was in fact the largest country wholly in Europe. That is no longer the case. Throughout the past three years, the map of Ukraine has featured relentlessly in the international press. Even casual observers have grown familiar with the outline of the country, and cannot have failed to notice how large it looms over its European neighbors.

Media coverage of battlefield developments has also helped to emphasize the sheer size of Ukraine. Despite regular war reports of major offensives and record advances, the overall picture of the front lines has changed little since the first year of the war, underlining the comparative vastness of Ukraine. While Ukraine may still appear small when compared to Russia, it is a huge country by European standards. Growing awareness of this fact is helping to shape perceptions of Ukraine’s geopolitical significance.

3. Ukraine is an agricultural superpower

Prior to 2022, Ukraine was probably best known to many around the world as the site of the Chornobyl disaster. Associations with the world’s worst nuclear accident were particularly unfortunate as Ukraine is anything but a radioactive wasteland. In reality, the country’s real claim to fame is as the breadbasket of Europe. Ukraine’s fabled black soil is among the most fertile land in the entire world, making much of the country a giant garden of agrarian abundance.

Since 2022, Russia’s invasion has helped educate international audiences about Ukraine’s crucial role in global food security. Extensive media coverage of Russia’s Black Sea naval blockade has highlighted the importance of Ukrainian agricultural exports, with disruption caused by Moscow’s interference leading to famine fears in Africa and price hikes on basic foodstuffs throughout the West. Growing awareness of Ukraine’s status as an agricultural superpower has undermined Kremlin efforts to portray the ongoing invasion as a strictly local affair, and has mobilized international opposition to the war.

4. Ukraine is an innovation hub

For decades, international perceptions of Ukraine were plagued by lazy cliches depicting the country as a terminally corrupt backwater on the vodka-soaked fringes of Eastern Europe. These deeply unflattering caricatures of Ukrainian stagnation were always misleading. They are now also hopelessly outdated. Since 2022, Ukraine has demonstrated that it is a sophisticated high tech nation capable of more than holding its own in the most technologically advanced war the world has ever seen. Ukraine’s ability to develop, deploy, and update its own domestically-produced weapons systems on an almost daily basis has done much to debunk the negative stereotypes of old and establish the country’s reputation as a leading innovation hub.

Ukrainian defense tech companies have been responsible for a string of particularly innovative battlefield solutions that have caught the eye of global defense industry giants and helped Ukraine even up the odds against the country’s far larger and wealthier enemy. For example, ground-breaking Ukrainian marine drones have turned the tide in the Battle of the Black Sea and forced Russia’s entire fleet to retreat from Crimea, while Ukrainian long-range drones routinely strike targets deep inside Russia. As a result, “Made in Ukraine” is now recognized as a stamp of quality throughout the international security sector. This image transformation is already attracting international investors and will shape Ukraine’s economic development for decades to come, with the country’s defense industry and broader tech sector set to be in high demand.

5. Ukraine is united

The full-scale invasion has seriously undermined longstanding Russian efforts to portray Ukraine as a country irrevocably split along geographical and ideological lines. The narrative of a divided Ukraine has been a mainstay of Kremlin propaganda since the Soviet era, and has been central to the disinformation that has accompanied the escalating Russian aggression of the past two decades. For many years, this crude oversimplification of Ukraine’s regional complexities proved superficially persuasive among international audiences, but it has been decisively debunked by Ukraine’s united response to Russia’s full-scale invasion.

Ukrainians across the country have overwhelmingly rallied in opposition to the invading Russians, with residents in supposedly “pro-Russian” cities such as Odesa and Kharkiv proving no less determined to defend themselves and their homes. This is not to say that regional diversity is no longer a feature in today’s Ukraine, of course. On the contrary, Ukraine remains just as subject to regional differences as any other large European nation. However, the Russian invasion has shattered the myth of a terminally divided Ukraine and proved beyond any reasonable doubt that the vast majority of Ukrainians bitterly oppose the idea of a Russian reunion.

Peter Dickinson is editor of the Atlantic Council’s UkraineAlert service.

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The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters.

The Eurasia Center’s mission is to enhance transatlantic cooperation in promoting stability, democratic values and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe and Turkey in the West to the Caucasus, Russia and Central Asia in the East.

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Ukraine seeks further progress toward EU membership in 2025

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Ukraine has long identified membership of NATO and the European Union as its twin geopolitical objectives as it looks to achieve an historic turn to the West. With seemingly little prospect of an invitation to join NATO while the war with Russia continues, the Ukrainian government will be hoping to advance further on the road toward EU integration in 2025. Progress in the country’s EU bid is realistic, but Kyiv will likely face a series of obstacles during the coming year, both domestically and on the international stage.

Ukraine’s EU aspirations first began to take shape in the aftermath of the country’s 2004 Orange Revolution. However, the European Union initially showed little sign of sharing this Ukrainian enthusiasm for closer ties. Instead, it took nine years for Brussels and Kyiv to agree on the terms of an Association Agreement that aimed to take the relationship forward to the next level.

When the Association Agreement was finally ready to sign in late 2013, Russia intervened and pressured Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych to pull out. This led to protests in Kyiv, which then spiraled into a popular uprising following heavy-handed efforts to disperse students rallying in support of EU integration. The Revolution of Dignity, as it came to be known, reached a bloody climax in February 2014 with the murder of dozens of protesters in central Kyiv. In the aftermath of the killings, Yanukovych fled to Russia.

Yanukovych’s successor, Petro Poroshenko, signed the EU Association Agreement months later. By then, Putin had already decided to intervene militarily, seizing control of Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula and sparking a war in eastern Ukraine. This was the start of an undeclared Russian war against Ukraine that would eventually lead to the full-scale invasion of 2022.

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As Russian troops approached Kyiv during the opening days of the invasion in February 2022, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy officially applied for EU membership. This gesture underlined the historical significance of the country’s European choice at a time when Moscow was openly attempting to force Ukraine permanently back into the Kremlin orbit.

Amid the horrors of Europe’s largest invasion since World War II, EU officials and individual member states also recognized the importance of Ukraine’s European integration. In June 2022, Ukraine was granted EU candidate status. This was followed in late 2023 by a decision to start membership accession negotiations, with talks beginning in June 2024.

The dramatic progress made since 2022 has led to growing confidence in Ukraine that EU membership is a realistic goal for the country. It is certainly a popular option. The number of Ukrainians who back joining the EU has been rising steadily since the 2014 Revolution of Dignity, with recent polls consistently indicating that more than three-quarters of Ukrainians would like to see the country as part of the EU.

This overwhelming public support means there is unlikely to be any shortage of political will in Kyiv to adopt the policies that will bring Ukraine closer to achieving EU membership. Nevertheless, the pathway forward is complex and demanding. Effective governance reforms, particularly in the fight against corruption, are essential for Ukraine’s EU aspirations. Aligning with EU legal standards across 35 policy areas including taxation, energy, and judicial reform will also require a monumental effort.

Ukraine will be hoping for an accelerated period of EU integration progress when Poland takes on the six-month rotating presidency of the European Council in January 2025. This follows on from a Hungarian presidency that brought few benefits for Ukraine, and should create favorable conditions for constructive engagement on key reform issues.

Looking ahead, Ukraine’s EU bid is likely to encounter additional obstacles and headwinds as the prospect of membership draws nearer. Ukraine’s agricultural prowess in particular is set to present both opportunities and challenges. Ukraine is already a major exporter of agricultural products to the EU. If the country is able to join the single market and eliminate existing barriers including tariffs and quotas, this would potentially overwhelm European markets.

Increased Ukrainian grain exports to the EU since 2022 have already become a controversial issue in many EU member states, sparking protests and border blockades. This opposition will only grow in the coming few years, with EU farmers pressing their governments to act in their interests and prevent Ukraine from achieving unrestricted access.

Labor flows of Ukrainian workers may also create some concerns among existing EU members. While millions of Ukrainians are already living and working in the EU including many with refugee status, membership could lead to an influx similar to the large number of Poles who moved to other EU member states following Poland’s 2004 EU accession. To address these concerns, transition periods may be necessary.

How soon could Ukraine achieve EU membership? EU Ambassador to Ukraine Katarína Mathernová has expressed confidence that Ukraine could join by the end of the decade. This was echoed by EU Commissioner for Enlargement Oliver Varhelyi, who stated in October that Ukraine could potentially secure membership by 2029 if it completes the necessary reforms.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has underscored the nation’s determination to achieve fast-track integration. While there is strong support for Ukraine’s membership bid in most EU capitals, the accession process is rigorous and requires unanimous approval. Further progress is likely in 2025, but the road to full membership remains long and challenging.

Kateryna Odarchenko is a partner at SIC Group Ukraine.

Further reading

The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters.

The Eurasia Center’s mission is to enhance transatlantic cooperation in promoting stability, democratic values and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe and Turkey in the West to the Caucasus, Russia and Central Asia in the East.

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2024 roundup: Top data breach stories and industry trends

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With 2025 on the horizon, it’s important to reflect on the developments and various setbacks that happened in cybersecurity this past year. While there have been many improvements in security technologies and growing awareness of emerging cybersecurity threats, 2024 was also a hard reminder that the ongoing fight against cyber criminals is far from over.

We’ve summarized this past year’s top five data breach stories and industry trends, with key takeaways from each that organizations should note going into the following year.

Billions of US citizens have private data exposed

On April 8, 2024, one of the largest personal data breaches took place, leading to nearly 3 billion US citizens having their information leaked on the dark web. Even more shocking was that all of this information came from only one source — National Public Data, a background check and fraud prevention service located in Coral Springs, Florida.

The stolen information collected contained names, social security numbers, home addresses and known relatives, and was listed on the dark web for sale for $3.5 million. Many of the victims were still unaware of the breach several months later, leading to several class action lawsuits filed by a dozen U.S. states. National Public Data has since then filed for bankruptcy.

Third-party breaches impact top 48 energy companies

A SecurityScorecard report revealed this year that 90% of the world’s top energy companies experienced data breaches that stemmed from third-party breaches. Many of these attacks were a direct result of increased reliance on cloud services and third-party integration to manage networked systems.

It was confirmed that out of the 264 individual breaches linked to third-party compromises, the MOVEit vulnerability was one of the major reasons for the issues. With critical infrastructure organizations playing a significant role in the health and well-being of citizens, these types of breaches continue to threaten public safety. The energy sector as a whole has since begun implementing stricter vendor assessments, continuous system and threat monitoring solutions and more secure data transfer protocols.

Read the Cost of a Data Breach Report

Financial firms face the highest data breach costs since the pandemic

According to the IBM Cost of a Data Breach 2024 report, the financial sector has seen a surge in data breach costs since the pandemic, reaching an average of $6.08 million per incident. While various attack types account for this increase, IT failures and simple human error account for a significant portion of the problem.

While certain improvements have been made in threat detection and containment timelines, many financial firms still have an uphill battle to climb. Larger-scale financial service breaches are now estimated to reach hundreds of millions of dollars in damages, leading many organizations to invest more in comprehensive identity and access management (IAM) solutions, AI-powered security solutions and dedicated incident response teams.

Average data breach cost increases 10% year-over-year

The global average cost of data breaches jumped 10% year-over-year between 2023 and 2024, with the latest figure reaching an alarming $4.88 million. The number represented by this average is driven by a number of factors, including lost business revenues, recovery costs and regulatory fines.

Complicating this ongoing trend, 40% of breaches recorded now involve data spread across multiple public and cloud environments and on-premises systems. These larger digital footprints average over $5 million in recovery costs with an average containment timeline of 283 days. Encouragingly, organizations that leverage AI-driven security workflows are experiencing a significantly lower average of $2.2 million per breach, pointing to a positive trend in next-generation security measures.

50% of data breaches tied to security staffing shortages

The cybersecurity skills gap widened over the last few years, with 50% of organizations experiencing data breaches reporting that they stemmed from staffing shortages. Skills shortages are specific to a wide range of critical areas, including cloud security and incident response, data analysis and compliance expertise. Another growing need for these impacted organizations is proficiency in security information and event management (SIEM) tools and active threat hunting.

In an ongoing effort to fill the key personnel gaps, it’s now recommended that organizations put a stronger focus on upskilling their existing workforce. Modern businesses can also leverage professional soft skills such as good communication and adaptability to help supplement and strengthen their security teams.

Moving into 2025

The past year has shown that while modern cybersecurity tools and solutions provide protection against a broader range of threats, very few industries and organizations are immune to cyber crime’s evolving nature.

As we move into 2025, enterprises should prioritize a proactive approach to cybersecurity planning. This includes optimizing their access restriction policies when operating with both in-house and remote teams, working to address any critical staffing shortages, and creating a stronger culture of security awareness within their organization.

The post 2024 roundup: Top data breach stories and industry trends appeared first on Security Intelligence.


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Black Friday chaos: The return of Gozi malware

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On November 29th, 2024, Black Friday, shoppers flooded online stores to grab the best deals of the year. But while consumers were busy filling their carts, cyber criminals were also seizing the opportunity to exploit the shopping frenzy. Our system detected a significant surge in Gozi malware activity, targeting financial institutions across North America.

The Black Friday connection

Black Friday creates an ideal environment for cyber criminals to thrive. The combination of skyrocketing transaction volumes, a surge in online activity and often lax security awareness among users provides fertile ground for launching attacks. Gozi malware, a well-known banking Trojan, exploits this seasonal chaos to target unsuspecting users and financial institutions alike.

This year’s Black Friday activity was particularly concerning, with a notable increase in web-inject attacks. These sophisticated techniques compromised online banking sessions, enabling the theft of credentials, financial information and other sensitive data.

The campaign is not expected to stop there. With the subsequent year-end shopping rush, Gozi malware is poised to continue its onslaught. Cyber criminals are likely to capitalize on the desperation of last-minute shoppers seeking the best holiday deals, amplifying the malware’s reach and impact.

These ongoing attacks emphasize the need for vigilance and proactive security measures. Whether you’re a consumer enjoying the convenience of online shopping or a business managing increased transaction volumes, understanding the evolving tactics of cyber criminals is critical to staying ahead of the threat.

What is Gozi malware?

Gozi, also known as Ursnif and ISFB, is a modular banking Trojan that has been active since the mid-2000s. It is infamous for its ability to steal banking credentials, monitor user activity and execute advanced web-injects during online banking sessions. Over the years, it has evolved to include features like anti-debugging mechanisms and encrypted communication and is also used for targeted attacks on specific regions and financial institutions.

Observations from our system

During Black Friday, our telemetry revealed the following trends:

  • Targeted campaigns: Gozi operators appeared to focus on North American banks, aligning their campaigns with the peak shopping hours.
  • Increase in attack volume: The malware’s web-inject functionality was heavily used, indicating a rise in compromised banking sessions.

Why the surge?

The Black Friday spike in Gozi activity can be attributed to:

  • Volume of transactions: The sheer number of financial transactions increases the probability of successful attacks.
  • Weakened defenses: Many businesses prioritize frictionless user experience, uptime and sales during Black Friday, potentially delaying or weakening their security measures.
  • Human behavior: Consumers are more likely to overlook suspicious activity when rushing to grab deals.

What we found

The provided script demonstrates a sophisticated web injection attack used to compromise online banking sessions. It dynamically injects malicious code into the legitimate banking page, allowing attackers to manipulate the session without the victim’s knowledge. The malicious script operates in the background to steal sensitive data, such as credentials, and is designed to evade detection by immediately removing itself from the page after execution. By blending with the legitimate page and erasing evidence, the attack becomes nearly invisible to both users and traditional security measures. This highlights the growing sophistication of web-inject attacks and underscores the need for advanced monitoring systems and robust security measures to detect and prevent such threats.

Figure 1: Sample of Gozi injection

From the screenshot below, it appears that the attacker left minimal evidence, likely attempting to test the mechanism and ensure everything is functioning correctly:

Figure 2: Attacker preparation

We believe the web-inject is still a work in progress, with potential future updates and enhancements to the code likely.

If you’d like to learn more about Gozi malware, you can find additional information here.

Final thoughts

As cyber criminals continue to exploit global events like Black Friday, staying vigilant is more crucial than ever. The resurgence of Gozi malware activity highlights the importance of proactive security measures for both businesses and individuals. While the current attacks are predominantly targeting North America, we suspect this campaign will soon expand to Europe, leveraging the holiday shopping season to further its impact.

While we enjoy the convenience of online shopping, it’s vital to stay aware of the ever-present cyber threats lurking in the digital landscape. By adopting robust security practices and remaining cautious, we can reduce the risks and protect ourselves against these sophisticated attacks. Cybersecurity is not just a technical challenge—it’s a shared responsibility.

How to avoid Gozi malware

Here are some recommendations to avoid Gozi malware and protect yourself from similar threats:

  • Be wary of email links. Exercise caution when opening email attachments or clicking on links, especially if they come from unknown or suspicious sources. Be particularly vigilant for phishing emails that may attempt to trick you into downloading malware.
  • Increase your password security. Create strong and unique passwords for all your online accounts, including cryptocurrency exchanges and wallets. Avoid using easily guessable information and consider using a reliable password manager to securely store and manage your passwords.
  • Remain vigilant online. Pay attention to any unusual behavior or unexpected requests when accessing websites, especially financial or cryptocurrency-related platforms. If you encounter unexpected pop-ups, requests for additional personal information or changes in website appearance, it could be a sign of a web-inject attempting to deceive you.
  • Stay informed about the latest cybersecurity threats and best practices. Familiarize yourself with common techniques used by cyber criminals, such as phishing scams and social engineering, to avoid falling victim to their tactics.

One of the best tools to detect Gozi malware and protect your organization is IBM Security Trusteer Pinpoint Detect. The tool uses artificial intelligence and machine learning to protect digital channels against account takeover and fraudulent transactions and detect user devices infected with high-risk malware. Learn more here.

IOC

/usbank/inj[.]php

/in/sella/sella[.]php

/in/paypal/p[.]php

/in/ebay/ebay[.]php

/in/poste/po[.]php

/in/ubibanca/ub[.]php

/in/amazon/a[.]php

/in/clienti.chebanca/ch[.]php

/in/credem/cr[.]php

frcorporateonline/inj[.]php

hsbcnet/inj[.]php

/lancher/in

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Trade data reveal the inner workings of Russia and China’s defense industrial cooperation

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Russian President Vladimir Putin has claimed that “the People’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation are allies in every sense of the word.” While the two sides have yet to formalize an alliance, bilateral defense industrial cooperation at the technical level has become all too clear.

Chinese direct exports to Russia since the start of the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine have included timely and militarily consequential shipments, including significant volumes of trench-digging equipment that coincided with Russia’s construction of the Surovikin Line of defensive fortifications in southern and eastern Ukraine. Recent data show China has dramatically increased direct shipments of electric components, circuit boards, and modules to Russia, hinting at changes in the Kremlin’s prosecution of the conflict. 

In addition to tackling Russia’s procurement networks and understanding the “axis of evasion” used by Moscow to counteract Western sanctions, Western policymakers should take note of how Russia and China are deepening military cooperation, including via trade in sensitive goods and technologies. 

Chinese exports to Russia are changing in important ways

Beijing’s support for Moscow’s defense industrial base is reflected in aggregate trade totals. Year-to-date direct bilateral trade rests at just under $202 billion, up about 2.5 percent from prior-year levels. Additionally, substantial China-to-Russia trade occurs indirectly, including via third-parties in Belarus and Central Asian countries. To be sure, Chinese firms are trading with Russia for several reasons, including a desire to exploit opportunities and “fill the void” after Western companies exited Russia. But there is an undeniable geopolitical saliency to this trade, especially since Russia’s share of world imports has fallen considerably, with China constituting the major exception.

Indeed, as significant as top-line trade figures are, they don’t tell the whole story. Significant China-to-Russia trade consists of militarily sensitive trade in items identified by the United States, European Union, Japan, and the United Kingdom as the Common High-Priority List, or CHPL. Items on the CHPL include microchips for weapons guidance systems, ball bearings used for tank production, and more.

Common High-Priority List items

Tier 1: Items of the highest concern due to their critical role in the production of advanced Russian precision-guided weapons systems, Russia’s lack of domestic production, and limited global manufacturers.

Tier 2: Additional electronics items for which Russia may have some domestic production capability but a preference to source from the United States and its partners and allies.

Tier 3.A: Further electronic components used in Russian weapons systems, with a broader range of suppliers.

Tier 3.B: Mechanical and other components utilized in Russian weapons systems.

Tier 4.A: Manufacturing, production, and quality testing equipment for electric components, circuit boards, and modules.

Source: US Department of Commerce Bureau of Industry and Security

Reported Chinese data show that direct bilateral trade in CHPL items has surged since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Parenthetically, while direct China-to-Russia exports are important, analysts should also consider the totality of Beijing’s support for Moscow by examining indirect trade in CHPL items.

Total CHPL trade levels—importantly, as measured in values rather than volumes—show that militarily sensitive trade stands well above pre-war levels. This comparison is distorted by Tier 3.A, however, which has comprised approximately 47 percent of shipments by value for year-to-date 2024 data. Instead, it is more appropriate to take a pre-war baseline and compare relative changes from “normal” times. 

This procedure is not without flaws: The COVID-19 pandemic and pre-war stockpiling of military industrial goods by Russia complicate identifying a relevant base period for comparison. Nevertheless, using January 2022 as a base period is likely the most appropriate way to examine how China’s CHPL exports to Russia have shifted since the beginning of the invasion. 

Breaking out exports on a tier-by-tier basis shows how direct China-to-Russia shipments have changed since February 2022. After rising substantially throughout 2022 and 2023, shipments of the highest-priority goods (Tier 1) have declined somewhat in recent months, when compared to pre-war levels. Meanwhile, Chinese direct exports of components and circuits (Tier 4.A) and Computer Numerically Controlled (CNC) machine tools and components (Tier 4.B) remain highly elevated, while exports of the former have surged in recent months. 

Shipments of Tier 4.A goods (i.e., manufacturing, production, and quality testing equipment for electric components, circuit boards, and modules) have risen sharply since the summer. Crucially, military circuit board applications include missile guidance systems, electronic warfare systems, communication systems, and more. There are also noteworthy correlations between spikes in these shipments and waves of Russian missile launches. Moscow’s receipt of Tier 4.A goods from China may have given it greater assurances that its missile supply chains would remain intact, enabling it to launch larger and more frequent attacks on Ukrainian targets. 

Conversely, direct China-to-Russia shipments of other CHPL tiers declined over the early part of 2024 amid tighter US sanctions announced in December 2023.

China-to-Russia exports of Tiers 3.A and 3.B have recovered from recent lows—and rebounded significantly for Tier 2 exports (additional electronic items).

Parenthetically, similar trends are largely observed for China-to-Russia indirect CHPL trade via Central Asia and Belarus, with some important distinctions. 

Chinese shipments of Tier 4.B (CNC machine tools and components) to Central Asia and Belarus have exploded since the beginning of the invasion. Shipments of Tier 4.B have risen by more than 1,500 percent since January 2022. Russian procurement agents are sourcing CNC machine tools via the indirect route.

Additionally, there has been an astonishing rise in Chinese shipments of Tier 3.B goods to Central Asia and Belarus. Russia now uses the indirect route to procure mechanical components, especially ball bearings used for vehicles such as armored personnel carriers, tanks and trains.

Overcoming the devil’s deal

Throughout Russia’s full-scale invasion, Beijing has consistently provided Moscow with the defense industrial support it needs in its attempt to subjugate Ukraine, with senior US policymakers reporting that Beijing’s assistance has stepped up in recent months. In exchange for vital military industrial assistance, China is reportedly receiving some of Russia’s most sensitive military technologies, including those involving submarine operations, aviation stealth technologies, and more.

The results of this devil’s deal between Russia and China are plain. Hundreds of thousands of casualties have resulted from Putin’s invasion; women and children are being trafficked internationally or by Putin’s thugs; and, after the Kremlin ruled that non-Russian Orthodox churches were deemed undesirable, Ukrainian Protestant and Catholic churches, pastors, and congregants face a violent crackdown from Russian security services. Moreover, in exchange for enabling Putin’s attempt to plunder Ukraine, Beijing is receiving military technologies it could one day use to attack the sailors, airmen, and marines of the United States and its allies.

Deepening ties between the Russian and Chinese defense complexes is something that should concern Western policymakers. While Moscow and Beijing do not share identical interests or objectives, the two sides are increasingly sharing technology and defense industrial capabilities in ways that severely impact US and Western interests. 


Joseph Webster is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center and its Indo-Pacific Security Initiative. He is also an editor of the independent China-Russia Report. This analysis reflects his own personal opinion.

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How Ortega’s Constitutional Changes Threaten Stability and Governance

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Nicaragua’s President Daniel Ortega  proposed a constitutional reform that would officially make him and his wife, current Vice President Rosario Murillo, “copresidents” of the Central American nation.

While the initiative has to pass through the country’s legislature, Ortega and Murillo’s Sandinista party control the congress and all government institutions, so it is likely to be approved.

The proposal also looks to expand the presidential term to six years from five. Ortega put forward also another bill that would make it illegal for anyone to enforce sanctions from the United States or other foreign bodies “within Nicaraguan territory.

President Daniel Ortega of Nicaragua has proposed constitutional reforms aimed at consolidating his administration’s power and extending its tenure. The key components of these reforms include:

Establishing a Co-Presidency: The reforms propose elevating Vice President Rosario Murillo, who is also Ortega’s wife, to the position of “co-president,” thereby formalizing shared executive authority. 

Extending Presidential Terms: The presidential term would be extended from five to six years, postponing the next election cycle and potentially prolonging the current administration’s hold on power. 

Expanding Presidential Powers: The reforms seek to enhance presidential authority over other branches of government, further centralizing power within the executive branch. 

Creating a Volunteer Police Force: The establishment of a “volunteer police” force is proposed to support the National Police, potentially increasing the administration’s capacity to enforce its policies. 

These reforms are designed to entrench Ortega and Murillo’s control over Nicaragua’s political system, undermining democratic institutions and perpetuating authoritarian rule

The Organization of American States general secretary’s office condemned the proposed constitutional reforms. 

The ‘reform’ document is illegitimate in form and content, it merely constitutes an aberrant form of institutionalization of the matrimonial dictatorship in the Central American country and is a definitive attack on the democratic rule of law,” it said in a statement.

The proposals come amid an ongoing crackdown by the Ortega government since mass social protests in 2018 that the government violently repressed.

Nicaragua’s government has imprisoned adversaries, religious leaders, journalists and more, then exiled them, stripping hundreds of their Nicaraguan citizenship and possessions. Since 2018, it has shuttered more than 5,000 organizations, largely religious, and forced thousands to flee the country.

Dissident groups including the Nicaraguan University Alliance quickly railed against the measures, calling them an extension of that clampdown.

They are institutionalizing nepotism and repression, destroying the rule of law. Democracy faces its greatest threat.

Ortega’s proposed reforms is nothing but a rubber stamping formalization of a decision to guarantee presidential succession for Murillo and their family. Ortega has referred to Murillo previously in recent years as his copresident.

While rejection of international sanctions would have no immediate impact, Orozco said it could put the country at “high financial risk” and risk further penalties from the U.S. Treasury Department. 

The constitutional reform to the presidency is part of a long-term plan for the administration to stay in power, and was pushed forward as a way to avoid provoking the incoming administration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump.

Trump may not prioritize crackdowns on democratic freedoms in places like Nicaragua, but also isn’t likely to tolerate provocations.

“The procedure, apart from circumventing the popular will, the rule of law, creates the pathway to give Ortega extra time to stay in power. 

President Daniel Ortega’s decision to propose constitutional reforms at this juncture appears to be motivated by a combination of political, strategic, and personal factors:

1. Consolidating Power Amid Political Decline

Ortega faces increasing isolation internationally, with sanctions from the U.S. and the European Union targeting his administration for human rights abuses and authoritarian practices. By formalizing a “co-presidency” with his wife and vice president, Rosario Murillo, he strengthens his family’s grip on power, ensuring continuity in governance even if his personal health or popularity wanes.

Nicaragua’s domestic political opposition has been largely dismantled through repression, but dissent remains. The reforms further centralize authority, leaving little room for institutional checks or challenges.

2. Neutralizing Succession Questions

Speculation about Ortega’s health and the future of his regime may be fueling these reforms. Elevating Murillo as “co-president” cements her position as his political successor, quelling uncertainty and potential rivalries within the ruling Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN).

3. Preempting Electoral Risks

Extending presidential terms and restructuring electoral timelines would delay upcoming elections, giving Ortega more time to consolidate control and potentially manipulate future electoral processes. It minimizes the risk of facing opposition movements coalescing before a scheduled vote.

4. Enhancing Security Apparatus

The proposal to establish a “volunteer police force” under government control reflects Ortega’s strategy to bolster state security and surveillance capabilities. This move preempts potential unrest, ensuring his regime can quickly suppress dissent, especially in urban centers.

5. International Pressure and Timing

The timing of these reforms may also reflect Ortega’s awareness of shifting geopolitical dynamics. With global attention divided by other crises (e.g., conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East), Ortega may see an opportunity to implement controversial changes with less immediate backlash from the international community.

6. Legacy Building

By creating a framework for a dual leadership model, Ortega ensures that his family and political ideology remain entrenched in Nicaraguan politics, positioning his regime as a long-lasting pillar of the Sandinista revolution.

In sum, Ortega’s proposed reforms are a strategic response to both internal vulnerabilities and external pressures, designed to solidify his family’s control over Nicaragua and ensure his regime’s survival in the face of growing domestic and international challenges.

The proposed constitutional reforms by President Daniel Ortega could have significant and far-reaching consequences for Nicaragua, both domestically and internationally:

Domestic Consequences

  1. Increased Authoritarianism

Consolidation of Power: The reforms would formalize Ortega’s and Murillo’s control over the executive branch, leaving little room for institutional checks and balances. This further entrenches an authoritarian regime.

Erosion of Democratic Institutions: By centralizing authority and undermining political competition, the reforms would dismantle remaining democratic norms and processes, turning Nicaragua into a de facto one-party state.

  1. Suppression of Opposition

Expanded Security Apparatus: The creation of a “volunteer police force” would enhance the regime’s ability to monitor and suppress dissent, likely leading to increased political repression and human rights violations.

Intimidation of Civil Society: Opposition parties, activists, and independent media could face heightened surveillance and crackdowns, further silencing dissent.

  1. Economic Decline

Loss of Investor Confidence: The reforms signal political instability and authoritarian consolidation, deterring foreign investment and exacerbating Nicaragua’s economic challenges.

Sanctions and Isolation: The international community, particularly the U.S. and EU, may respond with intensified sanctions, worsening the economic hardship for ordinary citizens.

  1. Political Polarization and Social Unrest

Public BacklashThe reforms could provoke protests and civil unrest, especially among marginalized groups and youth. However, Ortega’s enhanced security measures may suppress such movements with force.

Weakening of Civic Trust: Further dismantling democratic norms could deepen cynicism and alienation among Nicaraguans, undermining long-term social cohesion.

International Consequences

  1. Heightened Geopolitical Tensions

Strained U.S.-Nicaragua Relations: The reforms will likely lead to a deterioration in relations with the United States, which has already imposed sanctions on Ortega’s regime for human rights abuses and electoral manipulation.

Regional Destabilization: Ortega’s actions could inspire similar moves by authoritarian leaders in Latin America, weakening democratic norms across the region.

  1. Increased Isolation

Loss of Multilateral Support: Nicaragua risks further alienation from international organizations like the Organization of American States (OAS) and the United Nations, which have already criticized Ortega’s human rights record.

Reliance on Authoritarian AlliesOrtega may deepen ties with countries like Russia, China, and Venezuela, aligning Nicaragua more closely with authoritarian states and away from Western democracies.

  1. Migration Pressures

Exodus of Nicaraguans: Continued political repression and economic decline could drive more Nicaraguans to seek refuge in neighboring countries, particularly Costa Rica, as well as the United States. This would exacerbate regional migration challenges.

Potential Long-Term Implications

  1. Entrenchment of Dynastic Rule

By institutionalizing Murillo’s role as co-president, the reforms pave the way for a dynastic succession, ensuring Ortega’s family maintains control even after his departure.

  1. Decline in Governance Quality

The centralization of power could lead to increased corruption, inefficiency, and mismanagement, as political decisions prioritize loyalty over competence.

  1. Resistance Movements

Over time, repression and economic hardship may galvanize resistance movements, either domestically or among Nicaraguans in exile. Such movements could challenge the regime in the long run, potentially leading to a cycle of instability.

In summary, Ortega’s proposed reforms are likely to solidify his regime’s control in the short term but at the cost of heightened repression, economic hardship, and international isolation. In the long term, these changes could exacerbate Nicaragua’s political and economic vulnerabilities, increasing the likelihood of unrest and weakening the country’s prospects for democratic recovery.


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Cloud Threat Landscape Report: AI-generated attacks low for the cloud

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For the last couple of years, a lot of attention has been placed on the evolutionary state of artificial intelligence (AI) technology and its impact on cybersecurity. In many industries, the risks associated with AI-generated attacks are still present and concerning, especially with the global average of data breach costs increasing by 10% from last year.

However, according to the most recent Cloud Threat Landscape Report released by IBM’s X-Force team, the near-term threat of an AI-generated attack targeting cloud computing environments is actually moderately low. Still, projections from X-Force reveal that an increase in these sophisticated attack methods could be on the horizon.

Current status of the cloud computing market

The cloud computing market continues to grow exponentially, with experts expecting its value to reach more than $675 billion by the end of 2024. As more organizations expand their operational capabilities beyond on-premise restrictions and leverage public and private cloud infrastructure and services, adoption of AI technology is steadily increasing across multiple industry sectors.

Generative AI’s rapid integration into cloud computing platforms has created many opportunities for businesses, especially when enabling better automation and efficiency in the deployment, provisioning and scalability of IT services and SaaS applications.

However, as more businesses rely on new disruptive technologies to help them maximize the value of their cloud investments, the potential security danger that generative AI poses is something closely monitored by various cybersecurity organizations.

Read the Cloud Threat Landscape Report

Why are AI-generated attacks in the cloud currently considered lower risk?

Although AI-generated attacks are still among the top emerging risks for senior risk and assurance executives, according to a recent Gartner report, the current threat of AI technologies being exploited and leveraged in cloud infrastructure attacks is still moderately low, according to X-Force’s research.

This isn’t to say that AI technology isn’t still being regularly used in the development and distribution of highly sophisticated phishing schemes at scale. This behavior has already been observed with active malware distributors like Hive0137, who make use of large language models (LLMs) when scripting new dark web tools. Rather, the current lower risk projections are relevant to the likelihood of AI platforms being directly targeted in both cloud and on-premise environments.

One of the primary reasons for this lower risk has to do with the complex undertaking it will take for cyber criminals to breach and manipulate the underlying infrastructure of AI deployments successfully. Even if attackers put considerable resources into this effort, the still relatively low market saturation of cloud-based AI tools and solutions would likely lead to a low return on investment in time, resources and risks associated with carrying out these attacks.

Preparing for an inevitable increase in AI-driven cloud threats

While the immediate risks of AI-driven cloud threats may be lower today, this isn’t to say that organizations shouldn’t prepare for this to change in the near future.

IBM’s X-Force team has recognized correlations between the percentage of market share new technologies have across various markets and the trigger points related to their associated cybersecurity risks. According to the recent X-Force analysis, once generative AI matures and approaches 50% market saturation, it’s likely that its attack surface will become a larger target for cyber criminals.

For organizations currently utilizing AI technologies and proceeding with cloud adoption, designing more secure AI strategies is essential. This includes developing stronger identity security postures, integrating security throughout their cloud development processes and safeguarding the integrity of their data and quantum computation models.

The post Cloud Threat Landscape Report: AI-generated attacks low for the cloud appeared first on Security Intelligence.


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