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Edward Lucas: Putin’s Belligerence Is Rooted in Russia’s Imperial Past

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After giving a keynote speech at the “Necropolis of Communist Terror” international conference, held jointly by the Estonian Institute of Historical Memory and Memorial in Tallinn, British journalist and security expert Edward Lucas sat down for an interview with Jesse Seeberg-Gordon from the Estonian Institute of Historical Memory. The conference took place from February 8-11 and was hosted at the Estonian Film Museum.

In your presentation, you stated that the idea that “those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it” is false. However, you also stressed that history plays a very important role in the present-day security crisis facing Europe. How do you reconcile these two ideas?

Well, history is almost infinite when you think about it. The idea that if you don’t have a total grasp of all human history you will be in a perpetual loop repeating it just makes no sense at all. And we have historical events that have quite reasonably passed into distant memory. I mentioned the Hundred Years War and the Wars of the Roses in Britain and so on.

So, I think it’s very important that you should think hard about history, and you should know your own country’s history. And not just the nice bits, but the difficult bits as well, that’s very important. And we should also be aware that, particularly right now, Putin is using history as a weapon. This is a history-fueled war.

And so, we have a particular need to really get to grips with this. But I’m cautious about the idea of plucking a historical analogy that suits your case and then trying to use it as a sort of cudgel to make people agree with you, because I think that although analogies can be thought-provoking and often worth floating, they are very rarely conclusive.

I think Putin would score a very low grade in history.

Why do you believe the general public should care about remembering the crimes of communism? Why is it important?

Well, I think Europe has been shaped by the totalitarian episodes of the last century. And if you’re going to understand where we have to live, with our fellow Europeans… we come from very different traditions, and it’s important to understand why, for Greece, history looks one way. For Estonia, it looks another. For Finland, it’s slightly different. And as responsible, fellow citizens of Europe, that’s important. But I think we particularly need to look at it because the communist side of history has not been properly worked through, particularly in Russia. And so, Putin is not only skating over the crimes of communism, he is sort of weaponizing the imperialist side of Soviet, and before that Russian history, as a justification for his war in Ukraine.

I think if Western leaders had understood history better, if Western public opinion had understood history better, we would have been alerted a lot earlier to the danger that the Putinist regime and before that actually the Yeltsin Kremlin was posing to us.

The prime example here in Estonia is that Russia did not feel it was necessary to apologize for the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact or to make any reparation for the damage done. And as Lennart Meri pointed out in 1994, this is an extremely ominous sign. And if you’re not willing to confront that directly, this recent and very painful episode, that suggests that trouble lies ahead.

In your speech and just now, you’ve commented on the role of Russian imperialism as a fundamental cause for Russia’s belligerence over the last 30 years and, of course, as an impetus for the full-scale invasion of Ukraine last year. Why do you believe that Russia struggles so terribly with coming to terms with its imperial past?

Well, I think that in 1991 we thought three things had happened and actually only two of them had happened. One was the collapse of the CPSU’s (Communist Party of the Soviet Union) political power. Another was the collapse of the planned economy. And the third, which we thought had happened, was the collapse of empire, and actually it hadn’t. It had taken a huge knock, but Russia emerged in 1991 not as a true federation, but basically as an imperial power, as we saw very quickly with the first war in Chechnya.

And I think that Russians compensated for the humiliation and chaos of their diminished status in the world and the uncertainty of knowing that everything they’d been told about economics and politics and history was false by cherishing the great power status, which was inextricably linked to the imperialist nature of the Russian state. And this had very profound consequences.

So, when you’ve lost everything else, the one thing you cling on to is empire. And as a Brit, I would say that that’s not totally dissimilar from the way that Britain sort of fetishizes the best bits of its past. And we can no longer say, that the British Empire covers a quarter of the world, but we can go on and on about 1940 and about the struggle against Hitler.

And I think Norman Davies has written very well about the difficulty of making the Second World War out to be the “good war.” It’s true that one lot of bad guys lost, and that was to be thoroughly welcomed and millions of people are alive today as a result. But the terrible mistakes that Britain made in appeasement, I would argue also that the American administrations made in the thirties of thinking this “was not our concern,” the treatment of our Polish allies, the failure to live up to the Atlantic Charter, the concessions we made to the Soviet Union at Tehran, Yalta and Potsdam, the failure to realize what we were dealing with, a great, great many very unpleasant features of it, some of which were probably unavoidable.

I suspect, by the time of Yalta, there wasn’t much alternative to the deal, and so we did it. But we should still not coat all this in saccharine, rose-tinted glorification. As I said in my speech, probably the two most significant cultural artifacts in understanding the Second World War are the films Casablanca and The Sound of Music. That’s where people got their history, and although they’re not entirely wrong, they’re certainly not entirely right either.

…the communist side of history has not been properly worked through, particularly in Russia. And so, Putin is not only skating over the crimes of communism, he is sort of weaponizing the imperialist side of Soviet, and before that Russian history, as a justification for his war in Ukraine.

And to return to the second half of the question, what do you think that countries like the Baltic states, Poland, or indeed the other countries of the post-Soviet space can do to help facilitate this process of rethinking the traditional narrative of World War Two, as told by the West?

Well, I think it has to start off with unflinching, professional historical inquiry, and I think that we shouldn’t respond to Putin’s weaponization of history just by trying to weaponize it ourselves. He says the Russians are the good guys and you’re the Nazis. And we shouldn’t say, well, we are actually the good guys and you’re behaving like Nazis. That won’t get anywhere.

I think, certainly as a Brit, I find that I am able to make much more progress in my arguments if I start off by acknowledging everything from the repatriation of the Cossacks back to the Anglo-German Naval Agreement, as mistakes that Britain made. I think once you do that, you’ll then be in a much better position to fight these sorts of political and narrative battles.

So, I think that’s important. And there are some unpleasant and sometimes very surprising things we’ve seen in Lithuania. The debate about Jonas Noreika, who was seen as a great hero of the Lithuanian, anti-Soviet partisan movement, and there is now quite strong evidence that he may have also been a war criminal and involved in the Holocaust.

I think you just have to take this head on. You have to say, well, let’s just look at the facts and you can make separate arguments about context and so on, but in the end you don’t actually win in the long run by trying to avoid the dirty bits. So, I think that’s unflinching historical honesty and accuracy. But then also, having done that, really highlighting the extremely dangerous echoes in Putin’s weaponization of both history and geography and really something that’s quite close to Hitler’s [adoption of the German] Blut und Boden (“blood and soil”) approach.

There are very troubling echoes of all the worst things in 19th and 20th century history in what Putin is doing. And we should be quite unabashed in highlighting them, while at the same time not saying that it’s a precise analogy.

Perhaps the problem with that in some sense is that Putin presents himself as this champion of historical accuracy. He makes a big public show of bringing carefully selected documents out of the archives and saying “Let’s look at the facts,” while deliberately ignoring the bigger historical picture.

I think Putin would score a very low grade in history. I applaud politicians, who try and educate themselves about history. But there are some very important facts to be made. The Anglo-German Naval Agreement, although it was reprehensible, didn’t contain secret protocols under which we handed the countries of the Baltic Sea over to either the Soviet Union or to Germany. So, I commend Putin for his enthusiasm, but I don’t commend him for his accuracy.

An amateur historian at best. In your paper today, you used an interesting analogy, focusing on a hypothetically victorious Third Reich which, after winning World War Two, followed the same trajectory as the post-war Soviet Union. Many people protest the use of such analogies between Stalinism and Nazism because of the perceived uniqueness of the Holocaust. How do you think those countries, which experienced the horrors of Stalinism can tread this fine line in a world that overwhelmingly identifies with the crimes of Hitler, while paying significantly less attention to those of Stalin?

Well, I think that it’s absolutely true that historical events are unique, and it’s a great mistake to try and create categories. We should look at the Great Leap Forward and the Culture Revolution as atrocities. We should look at Japanese rule in East Asia as an atrocity. We should look at the Holocaust as an atrocity. We should look at the Gulag and the Holodomor as atrocities.

All these deserve to be treated independently of each other, first and foremost because they were real people, real things, and they happened. And I don’t like the idea of trying to put things into boxes. I think having established the facts and the uniqueness of each historical event, it is useful sometimes to draw parallels and to say that, for example, in the Holocaust there was a kind of industrial scale to the murder, which was unlike the way the Soviet Union did its killings.

Those people, who died in the Holocaust, were actually killed in places that they knew and often by people that they knew. Those people, who died at Soviet hands, were killed and died in faraway places at the hands of people they didn’t know. I think that that’s not relativizing one or the other, but I think it’s worth it if we can inform ourselves by making these parallels. I think it’s a useful thought experiment sometimes to do analogies… I had another analogy. Imagine if America had lost the Cold War and the victorious Soviet Union had behaved towards America the way that the Americans and their allies behaved towards Russia.

I actually think we did pretty much the right thing in the nineties. But it is worth making uncomfortable, difficult analogies in order to find out why they’re wrong. And sometimes the best bit of an analogy is to say “And this is why it doesn’t work,” even though superficially it may seem that it does.

Interview conducted and edited by Jesse Seeberg-Gordon, and was originally published by The Estonian Institute of Historical Memory.

The post Edward Lucas: Putin’s Belligerence Is Rooted in Russia’s Imperial Past appeared first on The Northern European :: UpNorth.


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Russia’s War Against Ukraine: Russian speakers in the Baltics

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Since Russia invaded Ukraine, the war has unified Estonian, Latvian, and Lithuanian societies while Russian speakers in these countries remain divided.

During the early months of the war, a survey conducted in the three Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania found that the Baltics generally perceived Russia as a threat as evidenced by 83.4% of ethnic Estonians, 72.1% of ethnic Latvians, and 66.3% of ethnic Lithuanians responding that the threat posed by Russia was somewhat high. In the same survey Russian speakers did not perceive the threat the same way though with only 32.1% of Estonian Russian speakers and 18.2% of Latvian Russian speakers agreeing that Russia poses a threat. [1]

Fast forward to the summer of 2022. Another survey conducted in June in Latvia found that, 40% of Russian speaking residents in Latvia condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Although this survey did not ask the same question as the first survey in March, this suggests the number of Russian speakers that disapprove of the war has increased. This number is, however, still surprisingly low given that local governments in all three Baltic nations have made attempts to limit access to Russian propaganda about the war and to try and persuade consumers with facts. This could mean that the limits and bans on Russian TV channels and print media sources in The Baltic States have been unsuccessful and that Vladimir Putin’s narratives and propaganda about the war in Ukraine are still getting through to them. There are plenty of tragic images of cities that have been destroyed and reports of Russia targeting civilian infrastructure. These acts are obviously outright illegal under international law. Nevertheless, this suggests some Russian speakers may still be receiving Kremlin propaganda narratives and are not receiving the facts or truth despite Baltic government efforts to limit and ban this kind of disinformation.

In the three Baltic nations, which were all illegally annexed, occupied, and colonized by the Soviet Union, many Russian speakers remained after the countries regained their independence in 1991. As a result, the Baltics today have significant Russian speaking minorities. Russian speaking minorities make up roughly 25% of Estonia’s population, 25% of Latvia’s population, and 5% of Lithuania’s population. Their presence has caused instances of internal tension ever since due to Baltic sensitivities based on their long, bloody and repressive historic experience under Russian and Soviet Russian rule.

Since regaining their independence though, the number on non-citizens in all three countries has diminished. Many older non-citizens have died over the past three decades, but the number of naturalized citizens has also increased. In Latvia today, only 26% of Russian speakers are non-citizens and in Estonia, they make up only 5.2% of the population. This means there are overall fewer non-citizen Russian speakers in the Baltic states.

Not surprisingly, most respondents who condemned Russia’s invasion in both surveys were younger Russian speakers (18 to 34 years old). Older Russian men supported the war. However, younger Russian speakers have grown up in a society free of Cold War communism and are less affected by Moscow’s persistent efforts of modern mind control. They are mostly EU citizens and have blended their cultures. It therefore makes sense that they would condemn Russia’s war.

Given that relations are generally strained right now between Russian speakers and ethnic Estonians, Latvians, and Lithuanians, the Baltic governments have occasionally been the targets of criticism from the Kremlin for their policies. One example of this is when Latvia began considering adopting a law that would limit bilingualism – meaning the use of Russian would be restricted in workplaces and public places. Another example, is an Estonian political party that is considering introducing increased fines for “those who fail to meet language proficiency criteria.” In all three countries, the parliaments have declared Russia a terrorist regime and Russian TV channels are largely banned and regular Russian tourists are unable to get visas to enter any of the Baltic nations. Most recently, in December 2022, Latvia cancelled the license of exiled Russian TV station TV Rain or Dozhd after it was deemed by the government to be a threat to Latvian national security. The station had been broadcasting from Latvia after being forced to shut its Moscow studio following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. All of these measures have added to tensions. While the governments of each country were sending clear messages to the Russian Federation that those who support Russia’s war in Ukraine are not welcome in the Baltic states, Russian speakers are feeling the repercussions of the Kremlin’s war, even if many of them do not support the war.

Even so, the number of Russian speakers in Latvia, for instance, that support the war dropped from 20% in the early days to 12% during the summer of 2022. Although there have not been any more recent surveys conducted in any of the Baltics since the summer, Russia’s actions and tactics continued in their ruthlessness and brutality, it is possible that this trend will continue with time and more Russian speakers will probably continue to disapprove of the war as they learn about the crimes being committed by the Russian Army. There are, however, still plenty of Russian speakers in all three countries who have remained silent throughout the war, neither supporting nor condemning the war publicly. Only time will tell if they too are persuaded to join the majority of the Baltic populations in condemning the war.

Putin’s illegal actions in Ukraine have been eye opening and should be condemned, but the question remains in the Baltic states, how can those governments shed light on the harsh realities of the war and improve relationships with their Russian speaking populations?

[1] There is a much smaller population of Russian speakers in Lithuania, so they were not polled there.

The post Russia’s War Against Ukraine: Russian speakers in the Baltics appeared first on The Northern European :: UpNorth.


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Head on the road: international traffic light day

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Three killed in explosion in Cairo

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Read TASS in Yandex.NewsYandex.Zen…Show hidden linksGoogle News

CAiro, 30 July. /Corr. ITAR-TASS Dmitry Tarasov/. Three terrorists were blown up on July 30 by their own explosives in the suburbs of Cairo. This was reported by representatives of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Egypt.

According to them, the incident occurred in one of the villages in the province of Giza. Two pipe bombs are known to have detonated while the extremists were transporting them in a car. The car was completely destroyed by a double explosion.

The security forces do not rule out that the explosive devices were intended to carry out terrorist attacks in Cairo. Investigators are currently trying to identify the militants.


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In Russia, 31,252 cases of coronavirus were detected during the day

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For the entire period of the pandemic in Russia has identified 10,865,512 cases of the disease. 9,902,935 patients recovered from the virus, 322,678 died.

In Moscow, 8342 cases of coronavirus were detected during the day — the indicator exceeded the level of 8000 for the first time since June 18. 821 patients were hospitalized with COVID-19 per day. There are 507 people on the ventilator.

A high daily increase in morbidity was also registered in St. Petersburg — 4078 cases, Moscow region – 2754, Krasnodar Territory – 715, Sverdlovsk region – 597, Rostov region – 554 cases.

According to the operstab on January 14, the level of collective immunity to coronavirus in Russia is 63.7% with a goal of 80%. About 80.2 million Russians were vaccinated with the first component of the vaccine, 76.5 million people were fully vaccinated.


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A flounder-like Cyprus was shown from space

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The island of #Cyprus, located in the Mediterranean Sea, is a real treasury of ancient cultural monuments.

Here you can find a lot of different sights: prehistoric catacombs, ruins of Roman palaces, the rich heritage of Ancient Greece… pic.twitter.com/CPdf3Jb8B1

— Anton Shkaplerov (@Anton_Astrey) January 17, 2022

Cyprus from space really looks a bit like a flounder, as pilots like to repeat.

Russian cosmonaut Anton Shkaplerov shared a photo of the island taken from the International Space Station.

“The island of Cyprus, located in The Mediterranean Sea is a real treasure trove of ancient cultural monuments. What is not here – and antediluvian catacombs, and the ruins of Roman palaces, and the richest heritage of ancient Greece …” he wrote.

Cyprus is the third largest and third most populous island in the world. The Mediterranean Sea. Located in the eastern part of the Mediterranean, geographically belongs to Asia. Most of the island is occupied by mountains.

Super discounts of up to -70% on electronics, fashionable clothes, shoes and many other prices

Anna Lysenko

Even more interesting things about nature


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Kazakhstan demanded to stop accusing Nazarbayev of all sins

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According to Baibek, thanks to Nazarbayev, Kazakhstan gained independence and recognition from the world community. He  noted that  the merits of the Elbasy (in Kazakh “head of state” or “leader of the nation” — approx. “Lenta.ru”) will be adequately appreciated in the historical perspective, despite the inevitable in  the reign of error.

«To blame Nursultan Nazarbayev today for all sins after leaving the post of head of state — it’s low and does beautify individual citizens», — Baibek said.

The first president of Kazakhstan, Nursultan Nazarbayev, has not appeared in public and has made the situation in the country since 28 December 2021. The ex-head of the Kazakh special services, Alnur Musaev, even admitted a serious illness, to whom or the death of the former head of state. There were rumors that the former head of state had left for the United Arab Emirates (UAE), but the Embassy of Kazakhstan in UAE denied this information.

On 5 January, President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev sent ;Nazarbayev’s resignation from the post of head of the Security Council for life and he assumed this position.


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