How Donald Trump Can Fix the Caucasus, Too | Opinion

As Donald Trump assumes once more the presidency in the United States, most of the foreign policy discussion revolves around Ukraine, the Middle East, China and other big stories. Indeed, even before assuming office his first order of global business appears to have been Gaza. So it may surprise some to know that in my corner of the world, the South Caucasus, anticipation is also at a fever pitch.

That’s because under President Joe Biden‘s watch, Azerbaijan has been allowed to get away with a series of aggressions, culminating in the September 2023 destruction of the autonomous enclave of Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) and the forced exodus of its 120,000 ethnic Armenians.

Days later, the Hamas invasion of Israel and the subsequent chain of events, including the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria last month, seized global attention. Even now, while the world’s attention is focused elsewhere, Azerbaijan appears to be plotting another attack, this one of sovereign Armenian territory.

In an interview this month, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev accused democratic Armenia of having a “fascist ideology” and being a “threat to the region.” He said “fascism must be destroyed” and threatened that “it will be destroyed either by the Armenian leadership or by us. We have no other choice.” This caused grave concerns in Armenia, which Aliyev is given to calling “Western Azerbaijan.”

Aliyev’s barely disguised aim is to seize the Syunik region of southern Armenia (also known as the Zangezur Corridor) and establish a land route to Turkey, its close ally. “The Zangezur corridor must and will be opened. The sooner they [Armenia] understand this, the better it is,” Aliyev said this month, warning that Armenia should not “act as a geographical barrier between Turkey and Azerbaijan.”

For Armenians, the Biden administration’s seeming indifference toward all this has been a deep disappointment. Its neglect of the refugee crisis and failure to hold Azerbaijan accountable have clearly emboldened Aliyev aad underscore the urgent need for a stronger approach from the incoming U.S. administration. This is a moment for leadership, and the Trump administration has an opportunity to correct course.

It must make clear to Aliyev—and to NATO ally Turkey—that aggression against Armenia will not stand. It should also prioritize the right of Armenian refugees to return home under guarantees of security and justice. Without decisive action, the South Caucasus will remain a flashpoint for instability and unresolved tensions.

Artsakh is not just a geographic entity; it is a land steeped in history and early Christian heritage, once a vibrant cultural and political hub. Its capital city boasted modern institutions, historic monasteries, and a self-governing parliament. Yet, within days of the invasion, Azerbaijan dismantled it all. The region was absorbed into an administrative unit devoid of its indigenous people, while Azerbaijani settlers moved in to repopulate the area. This act of ethnic cleansing erased nearly three millennia of Armenian civilization from the region.

Azerbaijan’s actions have undone decades of diplomatic efforts, including those led by the U.S. through the OSCE Minsk Group. These efforts aimed to foster coexistence between Armenians and Azerbaijanis and to find a peaceful resolution to their disputes. Instead, Aliyev, has claimed that the Artsakh question is now “resolved” by force. This dismissal of Armenian historical ties to the region ignores the profound humanitarian crisis that has ensued and sets a dangerous precedent for conflict resolution through brute force.

The international community’s silence has emboldened Azerbaijan. Major world powers and the United Nations have failed to take meaningful action, allowing the violation of international law to go unchecked. Even more alarming is Azerbaijan’s detention of Artsakh’s political leaders, who were previously recognized as credible partners in peace negotiations. Among them is Ruben Vardanian, a renowned philanthropist and humanitarian now imprisoned on baseless charges. This persecution aims to erase Armenian leadership and representation in the region, making reconciliation even more elusive.

Beyond demanding no further aggression from Azerbaijan, the Trump administration should also take the following steps:

1. Demand the immediate release of Artsakh’s detained leaders (and holding) Azerbaijan accountable for its violations of international law. Instead, deposed leader Ruben Vardanyan and 16 others are facing trial for “waging war” and other trumped-up charges on Friday, Jan. 17, having been given mere days to prepare. Targeting these figures and treating them this way undermines peace efforts and sets a dangerous precedent for minority communities in conflict zones.
2. Support the return of Armenian refugees under a framework that guarantees their safety and autonomy. International peacekeeping forces or other protective mechanisms must ensure that returning residents are shielded from aggression.
3. Reassert U.S. leadership in the region by reviving diplomatic efforts and pressuring Azerbaijan to respect international norms. Without U.S. engagement, the South Caucasus will remain vulnerable to further conflict and authoritarian overreach.

Sanctions should also be considered against Azerbaijani officials responsible for the ethnic cleansing and against entities exploiting Artsakh’s natural resources. These measures would demonstrate that the international community will not tolerate such blatant human rights violations.

Many of us still believe peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan can be achieved. Yet the negotiations remain profoundly one-sided: Azerbaijan, secure in its victory, presses Armenia into untenable concessions—even amending its constitution. Thus far, U.S. engagement, steered by Secretary of State Antony Blinken, has kept talks alive. But as the 2025 horizon dims and the American political stage shifts, so do the odds of success. In this rare window, the Trump administration can revitalize the process, secure a lasting accord, and transform the region’s future.

This is not a call for vengeance but for justice—a justice rooted in restoring the rights and heritage of displaced Armenians. The U.S. has an opportunity to lead by example, addressing the crisis in Artsakh with the urgency it demands. The incoming administration can chart a path toward stability by ensuring the voices of displaced Armenians are heard and their rights upheld.

The writer was Armenia’s ambassador to the United States and Mexico, and the deputy foreign minister.

The views expressed in this article are the writer’s own.