ISW summarizes Russia’s gains in Ukraine last year and provides forecast for 2025

In 2024, Russian forces captured 4,168 square kilometers, primarily consisting of fields and small settlements in Ukraine and the Kursk region. At the same time, the Russian army lost 427,000 soldiers, according to the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Analysts from the Institute noted that the Russian military command primarily prioritized efforts to capture the remaining territory of the Donetsk region and establish a buffer zone in the northern Kharkiv region in 2024, but was unable to achieve these objectives.

The Institute pointed out that, according to Western and Ukrainian sources, Russia had planned to seize all of Donetsk and Luhansk regions by the end of 2024. However, the slow progress of Russian forces in early and mid-2024 forced the Russian military command to reassess its plans and set the capture of Pokrovsk as the main offensive objective for the remainder of the year.

The ISW reminded that throughout 2024, Russian forces captured four medium-sized settlements: Avdiivka, Selydove, Vuhledar, and Kurakhove. The largest of these had a pre-war population of over 31,000. However, in December, Russian progress slowed.

“Russian forces would require just over two years to seize the remainder of Donetsk Oblast at their 2024 rates of advance, assuming that all their advances were confined to Donetsk, that they can seize large urban areas as easily as small villages and fields,” the ISW report states.

Instead, the Institute for the Study of War believes that to execute such plans, Ukrainian forces must first prevent Russian troops from advancing in their priority sectors. Therefore, Western support remains critically important for Ukraine’s ability to stabilize the front line in 2025.

Frontline situation

On December 31, 188 combat clashes occurred at the front. The enemy is most actively storming the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on four fronts in the Donetsk region.

The Advisor to the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Mykhailo Podolyak, stated that the delayed provision of sufficient weapons by Western countries and the prolonged suspension of restrictions on strikes with Western missiles against Russian targets allowed the Kremlin to reorganize its army for a prolonged war against Ukraine.

Ukrainian military officials noted that Russian losses during the assaults could reach up to 2,000 soldiers per day.