Possible Outcomes of Constitutional Changes in the DRC

The prospect of changing the Constitution in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is raising concerns of a potential “constitutional coup” for several reasons, largely rooted in the country’s tumultuous political history and the current political landscape.

Attempts to change the constitution of the Democratic Republic of Congo only exacerbate existing citizen distrust in government.

The people of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) bear heavy burdens Profound insecurity characterizes the country’s east, where scores of armed groups operate, millions have been displaced, and the threat of interstate war persists. Over twenty-three million Congolese are food insecure. The country is the epicenter of a deadly Mpox outbreak.

The president of the DRC, Felix Tshisekedi, has made little progress on the most pressing issues confronting Congolese citizens since ascending to office under highly irregular circumstances in 2018. But in the wake of his re-election in the flawed elections of 2023, he has identified a new priority: changing the constitution. 

We believe that this newfound interest in constitutional reform is really about changing the presidential term limits, or at least resetting the clock on those limits, before the end of what should be Tshisekedi’s final term.

Tshisekedi’s predecessor, Joseph Kabila, also tried to extend his time at the top, flirting with a constitutional change and ultimately opting to stay in office for two years past the expiration of his mandate. Kabila’s resulting political unpopularity, which directly led to Tshisekedi attaining the country’s highest office, seems to have been forgotten by the current president, who also appears oblivious to the voluminous data indicating that efforts to evade term limits and coups d’etat in the region are the same.

This is just the kind of self-serving political distraction that the Democratic Republic of Congo does not need. But with major global powers competing for access to Congo’s mineral wealth, Tshisekedi may not feel much international pressure to change course. Instead, he may find that his foreign suitors are happy to ignore his political shenanigans, and to disregard the inherent risks of investing in a country in which the population is seething with discontent.

That would only add to the long history of external actors contributing to the country’s instability and enriching themselves at cost to the Congolese people.

The DRC’s Constitution sets clear term limits for the presidency, allowing a president to serve only two consecutive five-year terms. This provision was introduced as a safeguard against the kind of prolonged, authoritarian rule that has plagued many African nations. However, there have been recent attempts, or at least strong suspicions, that President Félix Tshisekedi may seek to amend the Constitution to either extend his term or remove term limits altogether.

If such changes are made, it would effectively allow Tshisekedi to remain in power beyond the two-term limit, which critics argue would amount to a “constitutional coup.” This term is used to describe the manipulation of legal frameworks to extend a leader’s stay in power, thus undermining democratic norms and the rule of law without resorting to a traditional military coup.

The fear of a constitutional coup is not unfounded in the context of African politics. Several leaders in the region have successfully extended their rule by altering or abolishing constitutional term limits:

• Uganda: President Yoweri Museveni removed age limits and term limits from the Constitution, allowing him to stay in power since 1986.
• Rwanda: President Paul Kagame amended the Constitution, which could potentially allow him to stay in office until 2034.
• Burundi: Former President Pierre Nkurunziza’s decision to run for a controversial third term in 2015 led to widespread violence.

Given this pattern, any attempts by the DRC to amend its Constitution would likely be perceived as a similar move to entrench power.

The DRC has a history of political instability, marked by dictatorships, coups, and civil conflicts. The country only recently experienced its first peaceful transfer of power in 2019, when Tshisekedi took office after contested elections. The current constitutional framework is seen as a fragile yet critical step toward democratic stability. Any attempt to amend the Constitution to favor the current regime could plunge the country back into political turmoil.

The DRC’s institutions are widely seen as weak and susceptible to manipulation. This includes the judiciary, which could potentially be influenced to approve constitutional changes that serve the interests of the ruling elite. In such a context, amending the Constitution could bypass democratic accountability, consolidating power in the hands of the president and his inner circle.

The opposition parties, civil society groups, and international observers have repeatedly warned against tampering with the Constitution. They argue that any changes to extend the president’s rule would violate the democratic principles that many Congolese fought for. Widespread resistance to such moves could lead to mass protests, civil unrest, and potentially violent crackdowns by state security forces.

In the DRC, changing the Constitution to extend presidential terms could be seen as a coup because it would undermine the democratic principles of term limits, entrench power in the hands of a single leader, and potentially destabilize the country. By bypassing the will of the people and manipulating legal frameworks for personal gain, such actions would erode the fragile democratic gains the DRC has made in recent years, threatening both national stability and regional security.

Extending Presidential Term Limits

Scenario: The government amends the Constitution to extend the number of terms a president can serve beyond the current limit of two five-year terms.

Implications:

• This would allow President Félix Tshisekedi, whose first term ends in 2024, to run for a third term, potentially remaining in power until at least 2034.
• The move could lead to widespread protests, as seen in other African countries where leaders extended their mandates. Civil society groups, opposition parties, and international actors view this as a “constitutional coup.”
• This scenario risks destabilizing the DRC, especially if it leads to violent crackdowns on dissent or erodes public trust in democratic institutions.

Likely Outcome:

• Significant political unrest, which could trigger crackdowns by security forces.
• A potential decline in international support and aid, as Western governments and organizations prioritize adherence to democratic norms.

Postponing the 2024 Presidential Election

Scenario: The government uses constitutional amendments or emergency powers to delay the upcoming presidential election, citing reasons such as insecurity, logistical challenges, or health crises.

Implications:

• Delaying elections could buy time for the ruling coalition to strengthen its position, especially if Tshisekedi’s popularity is waning.
• This could lead to allegations of power-grabbing and erode democratic gains, provoking a strong backlash from opposition forces and the general public.
• There is a high risk of civil unrest, particularly in urban centers like Kinshasa and Goma, where dissatisfaction with the government is more pronounced.

Likely Outcome:

• Heightened tensions between the government and opposition, possibly leading to violent clashes.
• Increased pressure from international actors to adhere to constitutional timelines, which could impact foreign aid and investment.

Changing the Electoral System

Scenario: Constitutional changes focus on altering the electoral system rather than presidential term limits, such as shifting from a direct popular vote to a parliamentary system or introducing a proportional representation model.

Implications:

• This could be seen as a compromise that allows the ruling coalition to retain influence without overtly extending presidential terms.
• However, if perceived as a way to consolidate power, it could still lead to unrest and allegations of manipulating the electoral process.
• It may fragment the political landscape further, leading to increased polarization and potential legislative gridlock.

Likely Outcome:

• If managed transparently, this could result in a more inclusive political system. However, if perceived as a ploy to sideline opposition candidates, it could escalate tensions.

Decentralization and Federalism

Scenario: The government amends the Constitution to increase the autonomy of provinces, introducing elements of federalism.

Implications:

• This could be a move to appease regional leaders and reduce tensions in provinces with strong separatist or autonomist sentiments, like Katanga or the Kivu regions.
• However, if perceived as a strategy to weaken central oversight and entrench local power bases aligned with the ruling coalition, it may face resistance from opposition parties.
• Decentralization could improve governance and local development but also risks increasing competition among provincial leaders, potentially leading to conflicts over resources.

Likely Outcome:

• This scenario has the potential to stabilize certain regions by addressing local grievances but could also lead to unintended consequences, such as increased regional fragmentation.

Strengthening Presidential Powers

Scenario: Amendments focus on expanding executive powers, such as reducing checks and balances from the judiciary and parliament.

Implications:

• This could allow the president to rule with greater authority, potentially bypassing legislative and judicial obstacles.
• Such a move might enable Tshisekedi to implement policies more efficiently but would also raise fears of authoritarianism, especially if used to suppress dissent.
• Opposition parties and civil society may view this as a power grab, leading to a loss of legitimacy for the government.

Likely Outcome:

• Short-term political stability might be achieved, but at the cost of increasing authoritarian tendencies and reducing democratic freedoms.
• Long-term, it could lead to increased political opposition, possibly leading to violent confrontations.

6. No Constitutional Changes

Scenario: The government decides against pursuing any constitutional amendments, opting instead to adhere to existing term limits and electoral timelines.

Implications:

• This would bolster the DRC’s democratic credentials, potentially increasing political stability and strengthening relations with international partners.
• However, it could lead to a power vacuum if Tshisekedi is unable to secure a strong successor within his coalition, potentially triggering internal divisions.

Likely Outcome:

• A smoother transition of power in 2024, assuming fair and transparent elections, which could pave the way for increased international support and investment.
• Potentially less political turmoil, although internal challenges related to governance, security, and economic issues would remain.

The direction the DRC takes with any potential constitutional changes will significantly impact the country’s political stability and democratic future. If the government pursues changes perceived as self-serving, it risks not only internal unrest but also international isolation. Conversely, maintaining the current constitutional framework could strengthen democratic norms, albeit at the risk of political instability within the ruling coalition. The stakes are high, and how these scenarios play out will largely depend on the government’s approach to balancing power consolidation with democratic accountability.