Russian air defence or bird strike: What caused Azerbaijan Airlines flight to crash?

The Azerbaijan Airlines flight, carrying 62 passengers and five crew members, was en route to Grozny in Russia from Baku, when it crashed near the Caspian Sea on Wednesday morning.

What happened with Azerbaijan Airlines flight J2-8243? Here’s what we know so far

The Embraer 190 plane had diverted from its planned course to Russia and was attempting an emergency landing 3 kilometers from Aktau.

There are conflicting reports on what caused the plane to attempt an emergency landing.

What Azerbaijan says: President Ilham Aliyev has said that bad weather may have caused the flight to change its path. He added, however, that it was too soon to speculate and an investigation into the matter was underway. Officials said that the black box which records flight data has been recovered and may provide some clues into the incident.

What Russia says: The country’s civil aviation authority, Rosaviatsia, said that preliminary investigation showed that a bird strike may have caused the plane to attempt an emergency landing. However, experts cited by news agency Reuters have cast doubts over this theory. The report states that while collision with birds can cause the pilot to lose control of the plane, it is unlikely to go “wildly off course”.

What Ukraine says: Andriy Kovalenko, a Ukrainian national security official, blamed Russia for the crash in a post on social media platform X. “This morning, an Embraer 190 aircraft of an Azerbaijani airline, flying from Baku to Grozny, was shot down by a Russian air defense system. However, admitting this is inconvenient for everyone, so efforts will be made to cover it up, even the holes in the remaining parts of the aircraft,” he wrote.

A drone view shows emergency specialists working at the crash site of an Azerbaijan Airlines passenger plane near the city of Aktau, Kazakhstan December 25, 2024. (Reuters)

The WSJ report cites experts stating that the “perforations in the plane’s tail section” suggest that the crash could have been a result of a “possible missile attack or the work of air defenses”.

Footage circulating on social media and verified by news agencies shows the plane in a steep descent before engulfing into flames as it crashes onto the ground. Another video shows injured survivors being helped out of the wreckage.

Reports have also indicated that there were drone strikes in two regions next to Chechnya, where Grozny is located, on Wednesday morning.

— with inputs from Wall Street Journal, Reuters and AP