Ukraine seeks further progress toward EU membership in 2025 - Audio Posts

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The News And Times Review – NewsAndTimes.org

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Ukraine has long identified membership of NATO and the European Union as its twin geopolitical objectives as it looks to achieve an historic turn to the West. With seemingly little prospect of an invitation to join NATO while the war with Russia continues, the Ukrainian government will be hoping to advance further on the road toward EU integration in 2025. Progress in the country’s EU bid is realistic, but Kyiv will likely face a series of obstacles during the coming year, both domestically and on the international stage.

Ukraine’s EU aspirations first began to take shape in the aftermath of the country’s 2004 Orange Revolution. However, the European Union initially showed little sign of sharing this Ukrainian enthusiasm for closer ties. Instead, it took nine years for Brussels and Kyiv to agree on the terms of an Association Agreement that aimed to take the relationship forward to the next level.

When the Association Agreement was finally ready to sign in late 2013, Russia intervened and pressured Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych to pull out. This led to protests in Kyiv, which then spiraled into a popular uprising following heavy-handed efforts to disperse students rallying in support of EU integration. The Revolution of Dignity, as it came to be known, reached a bloody climax in February 2014 with the murder of dozens of protesters in central Kyiv. In the aftermath of the killings, Yanukovych fled to Russia.

Yanukovych’s successor, Petro Poroshenko, signed the EU Association Agreement months later. By then, Putin had already decided to intervene militarily, seizing control of Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula and sparking a war in eastern Ukraine. This was the start of an undeclared Russian war against Ukraine that would eventually lead to the full-scale invasion of 2022.

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As Russian troops approached Kyiv during the opening days of the invasion in February 2022, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy officially applied for EU membership. This gesture underlined the historical significance of the country’s European choice at a time when Moscow was openly attempting to force Ukraine permanently back into the Kremlin orbit.

Amid the horrors of Europe’s largest invasion since World War II, EU officials and individual member states also recognized the importance of Ukraine’s European integration. In June 2022, Ukraine was granted EU candidate status. This was followed in late 2023 by a decision to start membership accession negotiations, with talks beginning in June 2024.

The dramatic progress made since 2022 has led to growing confidence in Ukraine that EU membership is a realistic goal for the country. It is certainly a popular option. The number of Ukrainians who back joining the EU has been rising steadily since the 2014 Revolution of Dignity, with recent polls consistently indicating that more than three-quarters of Ukrainians would like to see the country as part of the EU.

This overwhelming public support means there is unlikely to be any shortage of political will in Kyiv to adopt the policies that will bring Ukraine closer to achieving EU membership. Nevertheless, the pathway forward is complex and demanding. Effective governance reforms, particularly in the fight against corruption, are essential for Ukraine’s EU aspirations. Aligning with EU legal standards across 35 policy areas including taxation, energy, and judicial reform will also require a monumental effort.

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Ukraine will be hoping for an accelerated period of EU integration progress when Poland takes on the six-month rotating presidency of the European Council in January 2025. This follows on from a Hungarian presidency that brought few benefits for Ukraine, and should create favorable conditions for constructive engagement on key reform issues.

Looking ahead, Ukraine’s EU bid is likely to encounter additional obstacles and headwinds as the prospect of membership draws nearer. Ukraine’s agricultural prowess in particular is set to present both opportunities and challenges. Ukraine is already a major exporter of agricultural products to the EU. If the country is able to join the single market and eliminate existing barriers including tariffs and quotas, this would potentially overwhelm European markets.

Increased Ukrainian grain exports to the EU since 2022 have already become a controversial issue in many EU member states, sparking protests and border blockades. This opposition will only grow in the coming few years, with EU farmers pressing their governments to act in their interests and prevent Ukraine from achieving unrestricted access.

Labor flows of Ukrainian workers may also create some concerns among existing EU members. While millions of Ukrainians are already living and working in the EU including many with refugee status, membership could lead to an influx similar to the large number of Poles who moved to other EU member states following Poland’s 2004 EU accession. To address these concerns, transition periods may be necessary.

How soon could Ukraine achieve EU membership? EU Ambassador to Ukraine Katarína Mathernová has expressed confidence that Ukraine could join by the end of the decade. This was echoed by EU Commissioner for Enlargement Oliver Varhelyi, who stated in October that Ukraine could potentially secure membership by 2029 if it completes the necessary reforms.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has underscored the nation’s determination to achieve fast-track integration. While there is strong support for Ukraine’s membership bid in most EU capitals, the accession process is rigorous and requires unanimous approval. Further progress is likely in 2025, but the road to full membership remains long and challenging.

Kateryna Odarchenko is a partner at SIC Group Ukraine.